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Fresh from MTG Salvation, it seems like we're getting the Enemy Fetch Lands we've been salivating over. It seems like Zendikar is going to be another high EV set for opening product. There are going to be a ton of chase rares when the set comes out and discerning which will have staying power is the key to profiting at the pre-release.
It goes without further mention that these fetch lands will be staples in both Standard and Extended. They are fantastic with the M10 duals and the Ravnica duals, and have serious synergy with Landfall. These will be popular to say the least. It seems like they are the surest place to put your stock on prerelease day.
If the hype pushes them past 10 dollars, be careful. Once a land like this hits 15, there's usually nowhere left to go but down. Reflecting Pool was an exception due to its ubiquity, but these are not Reflecting Pool. There will be some great decks that use the synergy of fetch lands and landfall, and it looks like aggro decks are getting some serious tools. So far there have been a plethora of absurdly fast 1-drops, including a 3/2 shroud for G which eats the land you play it with, basically. With so many insane early drops, this format is probably going to be FAST. Any control decks that plan to compete will need to have a good way to answer the Goblin God Draw or be dead to rights before Wrath of God's redheaded stepchild comes online.
At 10, these lands are probably decent pick ups but above that, you risk buying at a peak. There's no way they'll be cheap, but they should hold value for a while due to the relevance in older formats.
Great points. To be honest, what we've seen so far from Zendikar has got me really worried about my wallet. That might seem like a lighthearted statement, but I'm concerned about being able to get the cards I need without having to go ridiculously over budget. For someone who doesn't often get a chance to draft, buying singles is usually the only way to get some of the chase rares (because people don't like to trade them away). I've already resigned myself to spending $60 on a playset of Day of Judment, and depending on the rest of the spoiler, I may limit myself to picking up only the bare minimum instead of the usual speculation I like to do with new sets. It's obvious that the enemy fetches will be chase rares, and even at $10 each, that's $200 for playsets of all five. I had expected Zendikar to push monocolor or two-color decks, so I didn't anticipate there being any expensive duals to have to buy. Boy, was I wrong!
i have to completely agree with you and dee, and pasco, they're going to hit at least 15, which is about the cheap ally fetches right now, aside from flooded strand and polluted delta. i'm almost expecting a few to hit $20 for all the rock/dredge decks and blue/green thresh. these are part of the reason my friends and i are splitting for a booster case, and we're probably going to draft at least one of the boxes.
Lot of good arguments.On the other side, all the eternal players have the old fetchland and won't pay peek prizes.As a part of the legacy community, I will have a look for good deals at the prerelease weekend.Otherwise the lands have to wait.
To further the Legacy point, the lands do not have a significant impact on the Legacy meta game. They only thing they do is improve the consistency of some mana bases. There isn't an archetype that is being held back by a lack of enemy fetchlands. The only real advantage is that now is that some decks can afford to run singleton basic lands and their fetchlands are now more diverse. It doesn't dramatically change the dynamic of meta game.
So I suppose the question is really whether you think there will be any deals to be had on these fetches early on. People are talking about "good deals" at prereleases, but I don't know if that'll actually materialize. I'd be inclined to actually trade away my fetches for $25+ in trade value asap and then trade back into them at $15 apiece. The initial fervor over them will die down when people realize how common rares in Zen actually are, meaning smart traders could profit in the brief bubble market.
My money is on 20, although depending on how much extended and the eternal formats want in on the first batch i expect it could shoot to 30. If you wanna talk about why reflecting pool was 20, that was oddity. Look at the shocklands, they were 20 also. Whatever is the most dominant land(s) will curve to 20. Not looking just at reflecting pool, you forgot about mutavault.
These are getting way overhyped for several reasons. 1. The wow factor over finally getting Enemy Fetches. 2. The fact that they will be extended staples for years to come. 3. Historical price realizations for Onslaught Fetches. My best judgement tells me $12 to $15 is the top end on these for several reasons. 1. They will be alot more in circulation than the Onslaught Fetches. 2. Eternal formats players wont need these near as bad as they needed the originals, because well they have the originals. 3. The simple fact that Zendikar will be overloaded with chase rares, which will go a long way in keeping the price of everything else in check.So trade these away if you get offers in the $20 to $25 range, you will be able to pick them up once the initial hype dies down. Also pick tarmogoyfs up now before extended season rolls around, with new fetches coming into the format zoo will once again be hard to deal with.http://www.twitter.com/bigscissors