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After my article on ManaNation a few weeks back about Standard's "It Girl", there have been a few questions about what could happen to Baneslayer Angel next year when Magic 2011 is released. We have no way to know the future of Standard's queen bee, but we can try to cover all of our bases and hopefully lay to rest the question of "What Now?"
There are a few potential scenarios that can occur. Remember, Standard is not the be-all and end-all of a card's value. Tarmogoyf's value took a dip when it rotated out of Standard, but it's breaking new highs these days. Don't make the mistake of relegating the queen of the skies to the bargain bin when she rotates from Standard. Why all the talk of rotation? No, there's no inside information you're being kept unaware of! The truth is, we have no idea if Baneslayer Angel is going to be in M11. Most people think that if she does rotate, she'll take a big hit in price.
Well, let's assume for a moment that Wizards isn't totally heartless and they realize, despite the fact that they cannot address the secondary market, just how pissed off we'd be if she disappeared. That means around August 2010, we'll see a whole new crop of booster packs with the white menace inside. If you recall, the short supply of M10 was a big part of Baneslayer Angel's ridiculous price. Reprinting in M11 will solve this problem, but to what extent? It's safe to assume that WotC will fix the product availability concerns by that time. After all, M11 hasn't even been finalized as a set yet. That gives them ample time to print ample product. Barring any major world-changing shifts in the game, the card will still be a powerhouse in Standard and Extended, but the influx of cards will help to drive down the price to a more managable level. There's still the psychological factor to consider - people are used to Baneslayer Angel being $50+ so there will be initial resistance in the card's downward price trends.
Let's look at it from the other side now. What if WotC decides to flip Standard players the royal bird and axe our beautiful queen from the core set? Most people think that she'll tank in value, but it's more likely the opposite will be true. Remember how availability was a major factor in Baneslayer Angel's price? Well, what happens when she's never printed again? As time goes on, she'll just get more rare. M10 was criminally under-printed, so trying to acquire a mythic rare from a set drafted briefly during the late summer of 2009 could become quite an onerous task. She'll still be played until M10 rotates with "Lights" in late 2010, so we still have almost a full year with our secret girlfriend. After that, it all depends on what post-rotation Extended looks like. We're losing a lot of powerful cards from Mirrodin block, which could mean an even more favorable environment for the Angel. It's entirely too early to conjecture what the game will look like at that point - there are 600+ brand new cards we haven't seen yet that'll be releaesd, but it's safe to assume that Baneslayer Angel will be a factor.
If she does leave the Core set and isn't reprinted in an expansion, her price will probably take a similar path as Tarmogoyf's did. Dipping to 30 or even 20 dollars might be possible as the market over-reacts to a temporary lapse in demand. This is all speculation (imagine that!) for the moment, but it's important to realize that Baneslayer Angel is not untouchable on her 50 dollar pedestal. When she dips down in price, that's the time to buy. No matter whether she gets reprinted or not, she'll probably take a price hit towards the end of 2010. It may seem counter-intuitive at first, but Baneslayer Angel's value will eventually rise if she gets pulled from Standard.
Great article as usual Kelly! However I'm surprised that you didn't mention the one possibility we're all secretly hoping for (at least those of us without a playset yet!) – Baneslayer Angel in M11 at plain old Rare. Did you leave that out because you think there's no chance of it happening? What will happen if it does?- Alex
I actually think that is should have been a rare. Look at the air elemental upgrade. They knew what they were doing with her. I hope to dear god she doesn't get reprinted so I can come back to standard with out playing my weird 4 color ld deck.
I think they should put her in Worldwake. It would end the supply problem and help combat jund a tad.
A new edition set is not printed every year. We wont see M10's predecessor til summer 2011.
Wizards likes here just fine at how expensive she is. Come on, why was M10 underprinted? Because WOTC loves to make us bleed money.I know some would say to that, how is WOTC making a profit driving the price up? Well, let's see. Have the top selling CCG. Check. Under print it in sets from M10 on so it drives up the value of the cards. Check. Continue ad nuseam. Check. Love Magic, but this is total bull sh*t what they are doing to us. Let's be honest. She is a 20 dollar card easy, but 50? Please.
The only problem with your suggestion is that WotC gains nothing from the high price of Baneslayer. They're hitting themselves for all the missed profit as a result of the M10 shortage right now, I guarantee it. They don't sell singles, so very little of Baneslayer's high price makes it along up the chain. And mtgveteran, Core sets are annual now. Here's the link if you're curious: http://www.wizards.com/magic/Magazine/Article.asp….
WotC does not acknowledge the value of cards on the secondary market. They can officially understand that there is such a market, but they do not touch it, nor can they acknowledge it beyond "it is a collectible card game". That being said, they understand that it is bad for the game to have too many Mythic rares as tournament staples. M10 was underprinted because they made a mistake. Secondary market value helps companies like Channel Fireball and SCG, NOT WotC. A strong secondary market helps sealed product sales, but a 30 dollar Baneslayer is just as good in that circumstance. I don't think they'd downgrade her to Rare from Mythic. To do so would be akin to printing something from the Reserved list and it would hurt our faith in the value of our cards. Reprinting is fine, since it's almost assumed that popular yet "fair" cards will get reprinted, but to basically axe the card's price with a rarity downgrade would be an unprecedented decision. Granted, we've only had Mythics for about a year now, and in that time, we've seen them upgrade certain rares. We haven't seen a downgrade yet, and it's probably not reasonable to think they'll do that with a card so many players have invested so much money into. They don't acknowledge the secondary market values officially, but they're aware of the price of the card. It would be a bad move.Core sets are now yearly and will rotate in/out a few months after their release, to coincide with the Fall large set release.I'm excited to see how these predictions pan out. Baneslayer Angel is exploring new territory in the MTG markets right now, since even Tarmogoyf didn't quite have the confluence of factors that Baneslayer does right now. Regardless of the toe-to-toe comparison, Baneslayer Angel is probably a touch harder to come by at the moment. That'll probably change as Extended season draws near, but it remains an interesting topic nonetheless.
I don't see them downgrading the rarity of Baneslayer Angel. Even when they wanted to print Savannah Lions at uncommon in M10, they were wary of affecting the value of existing Lions on the secondary market and thereby upsetting collectors. They chose to go with an entirely new card instead, which we know as Elite Vanguard.
M10 doesn't rotate out with Lights, it rotates out with the next set after that. I was under the impression that there's always going to be 2 Core Sets in Standard. Am I wrong?
Actually, I believe the high price of BSA drives up sales for WotC because more people get packs trying to open one.
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.asp… In this article, Tom LaPille talks about his Future Future League deck on Oct 16 2009, which contains Baneslayer Angel. FFL decks for that date should be ZEN-M11-Lights/Camera/Action standard. It therefore seems likely that this means that Baneslayer Angel is in M11.