Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
(*This article has been updated to reflect the full spoiler being available on Wednesday, Jan. 26)
We’re deep in Mirrodin Besieged spoilers now, and I’ve got some tips for trading at your prerelease this weekend. I asked on Twitter last week if you guys were interested in a full set review or hitting the highlights of the spoiled cards, and consensus was a more narrow look at early favorites won out, so that’s the plan for this week.
Today, I’m going to offer my opinion on the most-hyped cards, as well as those undervalued at the moment that you should try to pick up at your prerelease. I’m writing this on Sunday, but I plan on updating through Wednesday so I can keep this as up-to-date as possible for all of you. I’m not going to link images of all the cards, so if the autotags don’t link it and you don’t know the card, feel free to use your favorite spoiler website to follow along.
With that, let’s get started.
Hero of Bladehold
A nice Mythic and a prerelease card. This might enable some new strategies, but so far I’m not seeing it, in Standard or Extended. A cost of 4 and no haste makes it likely too slow for Extended, and I don’t think it has the tools it needs to work with in Standard. A well-timed Consume the Meek takes care of the Hero’s buddies, and that spells the end of the theoretical deck it goes into. It will still appeal to a lot of players, so I see it ending up in the $5-7 range.
Mirran Crusader
Sweet card, and it’s a Knight, which means it apparently has some casual value (see Knight of Exemplar at $6 on SCG). Its use in Standard probably relates directly to the possibility of Infect becoming a real deck. $3-5.
Phyrexian Rebirth
This made the list because of one reason. It’s probably nowhere good enough to see competitive play, but as a Wrath+ it could slide into White EDH, making it a good target to pick up as a throw-in.
Consecrated Sphinx
I’m addressing this because it’s a Mythic, but it’s pretty clearly a bulk Mythic that might go into Casual/EDH decks. $2.
Treasure Mage
Yes, it works with Wurmcoil Engine. Awesome. But the real reason it’s included on this list is because it’s a “new” effect, and could see a lot of play in Casual formats. Be sure to pick up Foils of this if you can (did you know foil Trinket Mages go for $6 on SCG?)
Black Sun's Zenith
This card is really powerful, and might find a home in U/B decks. Plus all the Zeniths seem made for casual or singleton formats with the “shuffle back in” clause. Good trade fodder, and might see competitive play. Pick up some for cheap if you can, because it’s not grabbing much attention right now, and probably won’t at your prerelease.
Go For the Throat
This is a stellar card that is sure to see competitive play (almost always better than Doom Blade at this point in the meta). Speaking of Doom Blade, did you know it will cost you 50 cents to pick one of these up on SCG, and $3 for a foil? I see the same thing happening with Go For the Throat, especially since it’s an uncommon, so make sure to look through the cards people leave on the table to find these.
Phyrexian Crusader
I’m really on the fence about these new Infect cards. I think the deck is a one-drop away from actually being competitive, and if it gets there cards like the Crusader are going to go for $6-9 apiece. Infect has insane popularity among casual players (see Hand of the Praetors at $5 apiece on SCG). With even a hint of playability attached to Infect, the Crusader can hang around $7-9 for a good while. Pick these up at $4 if you can. It’s preselling at $5 on SCG, and while I think you can get value out of trading for it on prerelease day at $4-5, I wouldn’t clean out SCG’s inventory.
Phyrexian Vatmother
Same as above. I haven’t tested the theoretical Infect deck at all, but this card could have a place in it. Pick up as bulk this weekend, and it might pay off down the road. It’s preselling at $2, so there’s not much risk associated with this.
Hero of Oxid Ridge
If there’s going to be a Battle Cry deck, this guy has a realistic shot of having a place in it, due to haste. I don’t advise picking these up at the (now $8) presell price, but it’s a card to keep an eye on moving forward.
*Note: This has actually gone up to a $8 presell price since I first wrote the article. Trade for these at $4-6, but not higher.
Green Sun's Zenith
This is my vote for best in the cycle. It has a number of decks it already slots in – Elves of pretty much any format, Ramp decks and basically every Green EDH deck with lots of mana and big monsters (so, most of them). It was pre-selling at $5 (now $8). I think it ends up as a $5-7 card. I’ll be looking to pick this card up as much as possible in trades this weekend, especially foils.
*Note: This also went up to $8 after originally starting much lower. Pick them up all day at $4-5, and sell at $7-8.
Thrun, the Last Troll
I really think this guy is going to be a house, especially teaming up with Great Sable Stag to beat up on Faeries in Extended. As such, I think it will hang around $20 for awhile before slipping to $15ish as we move out of Extended season and more copies become available.
Glissa, the Traitor
This doesn’t fit into any deck right now, but I imagine it might get some work as an EDH general. I don’t see the $8 presale price holding up at all, and I think this ends up in the $3-5 range, unless someone finds a use for it in Standard or Extended. It does have the exalted Mythic status, so after the expected initial dropoff it could see quite the spike if it begins to see play (ala Frost Titan).
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas
I think the presale price of $35 is high, but Dark Tezzy does have a ton of utility. The ultimate factor in his price is going to be whether or not he finds a home in Standard, which he might well do before his run in Standard ends. That said, I don’t see such a deck existing right now in Standard. Tezz is nuts in Vintage, though that doesn’t drive demand that much. I’m going to put a call of $20-25 BlackLotusProject.com average on him after a few months. Same thing as above applies, keep an eye out for any winning decks sporting Tezzeret, because if he jumps, he’s going to jump big.
Blightsteel Colossus
Here’s another card with some crazy casual appeal, and he’s even more nuts in Vintage than Tezzy. Jonathan Medina’s trying to break Shape Anew, but it’s just not happening, folks. There’s just way too many Mana Leaks floating around in Standard right now for such a plan to work.
The Colossus himself, on the other hand, is going to hold his price very nicely, and could even be a second target in Extended Polymorph decks. He doesn’t appeal to everyone, but to those who like him, they’re going to like him a lot. Pick him up from Spikes at a good price and flip him to casual players who are nuts over Infect.
Decimator Web
Some casual appeal, but the card is mostly on the list because it’s sweet. That’s not financial advice, mind you, just a fact of life.
Phyrexian Revoker
I’m not sold on this card, since most of the time you want your Pithing Needle to stay alive, which the 1 toughness makes difficult. It’s likely it will find it’s place in a variety of formats, but I don’t think it will hold its presale price of $4. I think it will eventually settle around $2-3.
Shimmer Myr
This card has such a powerful effect it could find a home somewhere. It’s preselling at $2.50, but I bet there are a ton of players at prereleases across the world who are going to treat it as Bulk. Pick them up cheaply, and trade them to the guy building the Myr deck. And in the unlikely event that such a deck ever becomes real, you’re going to end up with a very nice profit.
Sphere of the Suns
I’ll be on the lookout for this card when looking through draft leftovers. Cool design, sweet effect, probably ends up on a level with Everflowing Chalice ($1.50 and sold out on SCG). Another card to focus on foils of.
Sword of Feast and Famine
Decks sporting Stoneforge Mystic are getting yet another option with this card. I think it’s primary use is going to be for bashing through Tarmogoyfs in Legacy, where the Mystic is starting to see more regular play. It also gives Boros another good target to search for when playing against U/B or a theoretical B/G Infect deck. I see this being on the level of Sword of Body and Mind, though protection from Black might take it a bit further. $8-10 when it’s all said and done.
Contested Warzone
Cool design, but not happening right now. Don’t forget about this card if a Battle Cry deck breaks out down the line.
Inkmoth Nexus
This is one of my favorite cards spoiled so far, and it provides the theoretical Infect deck valuable reach. I’m not convinced it will see play in Control decks like Mike Flores suggested on his article on the mothership, but it’s going to be very popular nonetheless. I can see this holding its presale price of $8 (now $10). I love lands, so I’ll be trading aggressively for them anyway, but you should probably do the same. You can flip these at $10-12 all day long, and probably can pick them up at $7-8 from traders who still think Poison cards are jokes.
*Note: This has gone up to a $10 pre-sell price since the first draft of this article.
Now we have the whole spoiler, and I think I've hit on nearly all the important cards. Let me know if you like this type of card rundown and let me know if you agree with my projections or think I’m crazy!
Thanks,
Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter
P.S. If you're a fan of ManaScrewed or Podcasts in general, check this out! It's the ManaScrewed crew along with myself, Jon Medina, and Frank Lepore talking about spoilers, SCG Opens, Jon's alleged Shape Anew deck, and, more relevant to this site, the growth of the Finance genre of Magic writing. Medina and I had a pretty good conversation about this, and I suggest giving it a listen if you're interested. The Financial talk is around the 1:10 mark. If you have two hours, though, the entire show is a good listen!
Overall it feels solid enough as far as predictions go. Maybe adding some uncommons that might pass for hidden gems (Either staples or just hidden EDH stuff) advice in foil pricing could do the trick too.
Financially speaking, which faction do you think is better to pick? Looking at the promo card plus overall value of rares/mythics.
I've put up a running analysis of the faction pricing here…
https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/01/free-mirr…
With Treasure Mage being a Game Day promo, how much do you think foils of him will be affected? Likewise, how much do you think the Game Day promo for Black Sun's Zenith will affect it?
@Womby I think with it being the Game Day promo, the foil price will come down some, but will still be a very in-demand trade item along with the Full-Art version. Some players really want foils rather than full-art cards, but the additional "special" copies of it will drag the price down some.
Black Sun's Zenith is destined to be a $2-5 dollar card, and the promo will likely pull it toward the lower end.
This is a stellar card that is sure to see competitive play (almost always better than Doom Blade at this point in the meta). Speaking of Doom Blade, did you know it will cost you 50 cents to pick one of these up on SCG, and $3 for a foil? I see the same thing happening with Go For the Throat, especially since it’s an uncommon, so make sure to look through the cards people leave on the table to find these.