Comments on: The Life of a Card https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/ Play More, Win More, Pay Less Tue, 18 Jan 2022 03:00:38 +0000 hourly 1 By: pureval https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/#comment-11798 Mon, 07 Mar 2011 22:55:19 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=10720#comment-11798 I like how this article taught us the theory behind why cards are the price they are, instead of just being stock tips. That said I would have liked it to go more in depth than it did, especially the overrated section. Maybe look at two or three cards instead? For a future article I would like to see someone talk about promo cards. Odd versions to look out for when trading, ones to avoid, etc.

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By: Macadosche https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/#comment-11685 Sat, 05 Mar 2011 16:42:03 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=10720#comment-11685 I really enjoy your pieces, as I'm new at trading / speculation and they help me get a handle on the broader view when my tendency is to react more as a "day trader" rather than thinking about the long game. Your work strikes a nice even balance of introducing basics to the newer reader without turning off people who have been at it for years.

Constructive Criticism: Ok, this is nitpicky, but I would appreciate it if you spend a little more effort on your articles' layouts. Specifically from this one, using boldface or underscore to separate out each example or subheading would be much nicer when casually referencing the article again at a later time. Throw in a little center-justification for subtitles, maybe a text box here or there, that kind of thing. Then put your final, summarized points at the bottom in a little text box or something. I often go back and reference articles from months ago, and it's always easier to find "that great point Whinston made" if I remember in my brain what the article layout looks like visually rather than scanning through pages and pages of identical-looking typeface.

Three future article ideas:
1) An MTGO article comparing digital & paper versions of the same card and talk about why prices sometimes maintain consistency across platforms and sometimes vary wildly.

2) The value of "everything else" – that is, tokens & rules cards, non-card prize schwag, countdown dice, etc., including some "snag these if you see them" gems from the olden days of Magic. Is there any value in keeping empty boxes? Should we add fatpacks to our buying strategy just to get the cool box & fun stuff it has inside?

3) A cost-analysis breakdown of labor and materials and how outside stuff like tournament & hotel fees or even low cost stuff like toploaders, binders, etc fit into your profit margins.

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By: benk https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/#comment-11684 Sat, 05 Mar 2011 16:39:42 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=10720#comment-11684 Great article. I liked the simplicity and clarity you used to discuss these card archetypes. I'm always a big fan of tips, like Inferno Titan/Collar.

For constructive criticism, this is pretty minor, but for tips, could you give a buy price? How much should we spend on an Inferno Titan before we've spent too much and won't be able to see much of a spike?

Finally, for a future article, I'd love some speculation about the final scars set, not in terms of what will be printed, but about what types of cards would have to be printed for certain things to rise and fall.

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By: Matthew Lewis https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/#comment-11467 Wed, 02 Mar 2011 16:51:20 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=10720#comment-11467 Nice article. I like how you elaborated on a sound strategy for speculating. Predicting the next hot card is difficult, but identifying cards with strong potential, but currently under appreciated, is the way to go. In the stock market, this is called value investing and the principles of value investing for stocks also apply to magic.

As a constructive criticism, I think using recent examples is handy, but I think you should delve into more general guidelines for identifying what is a role player and what is a flagship. This could be a future topic too.

Looking out into the future, a long range forecast would be a good article I think. The seasonality of magic is the easiest way to speculate successfully on magic I think.

@Aaron, I also do all most of my speculating on MTGO, and I try and post regularly to the forums on my latest ideas. If you are interested in learning about the value of classic sets and drafting them, check out The Regular Gangster's writing over at puremtgo, he's excellent from a strategic and financial viewpoint.

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By: Ryan Bushard https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/#comment-11446 Wed, 02 Mar 2011 06:14:03 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=10720#comment-11446 The article was great except I think you should have mentioned the overrated role-player, the card that sees a t8 in a pro tour then does nothing alot of people dont understand when a deck is designed for the PT its not designed for longevity instead it is designed for the current metagame *looking at you conley woods* Cards featured in decks like Frosty the Snowman are cards I feel fit this category.
So that was the negative, the positive was that you covered something so many people miss, trends, seriously as someone who makes money off this game trends make your margins, its not all about picking up the newest and greatest card now its about picking up the best card in a month for cheap, being able to keep up with these trends involves reading and seeing where the metagame is and then figuring out what beats that and start picking those cards up (Looking at you Leonin Arbiter).

Idea for the next article or future article. I would like to see something that compares cards for example here you use specific examples for flagships (Jace) Role Players (Mystic) and truthfully these cards have the same roles as many other cards in the past (Tooth and Nail, Gifts Ungiven, Umezawa's Jitte) for Flagships and cards like (Thoughtseize, Bitterblossom) that took decks that to the next level. You can almost always compare these trends, this allows you to pick the cards from the sets when they first release and find thier roles and assess future values. Perhaps writing about how that could be charted and where each of these cards fits price wise (If you look at the cards they have many price trends though mythics screwed this up).

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By: Noah Whinston https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/#comment-11432 Wed, 02 Mar 2011 00:17:26 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=10720#comment-11432 In reply to Roberto.

i don't think a foil one would be worth picking up, traditionally foils in type 2 are not as good. i have no idea about max buy prices, i don't tend to deal with cash when i trade for cards.

and as for reprinting, if they are reprinted, they will take a slight price hit, if they aren't they will plummet

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By: @Poly_psi https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/#comment-11412 Tue, 01 Mar 2011 19:19:03 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=10720#comment-11412 I do most of my trading on MTGO, so I'd love to see more tips about which cards are hot on there. There is a fairly good correlation between paper and digital, but with important exceptions (see Twilight Mire, for example). I liked your take on the lifecycle of a card, and thought it might be interesting to do this taking MTGO into account. For example, since MTGO enables 24/7 drafting, typically card prices are lower due to much more product being opened relative to the player base. However, cards exit the system rapidly once a set rotates, as players redeem their complete sets for paper cards. This can create temporary shortages, as previously mediocre cards (like Prismatic Omen) suddenly become valuable. By timing your purchases around releases and rotations, you can make quite a bit of money, even if you are just buying and selling from bots.
Another phenomenon unique to MTGO is the release of classic sets like Urza's block, which are relatively short and often underdrafted, because the limited environment is not as good as more recent sets. It might be interesting to see an analysis of the value of drafting classic sets from a trader's perspective, or even (shudder) simply cracking packs. Once these sets go off sale, the card prices often go through the roof (see Force of Will).
So, in short, my positive comment is: I really like the lifecycle concept; my constructive criticism is that I'd like to see more MTGO coverage; and my article suggestion is that you apply the lifecycle concept to MTGO.

Thanks,
Aaron

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By: chosler https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/#comment-11410 Tue, 01 Mar 2011 18:38:05 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=10720#comment-11410 Glad to see we're on the same page regarding Inferno Titan!

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By: Roberto https://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/03/the-life-of-a-card/#comment-11407 Tue, 01 Mar 2011 17:43:12 +0000 http://www.quietspeculation.com/?p=10720#comment-11407 Hi, thanks for the advice. Should I spend some more money to invest on a foil Inferno Titan? Which is according to you the maximum buy price for the regular and the foil one to be considered an investment?
Finally how does the reprinting or not reprinting of the titans cycle in M12 could impact the prices?

Ciao

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