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Hello again, dear readers! Thanks for tuning in.
One of the things that has always interested me about MTG is theory. Whether itâs deck building, finding the proper mana curve, or economics, Iâm always down for learning new tips and tricks to maximize my trading and gaming potential.
Different people learn in different ways. Some people can see something being done and imitate it immediately (visual), other people need to do that thing themselves (kinesthetic), and yet others like to hear things explained to them (auditory).
When youâre reading a website, youâre basically forced to learn visually, which may not be your preferred learning style. Because of this, I think that incorporating another method of study would be beneficial to train our minds to think in dollar signs and decimal points.
So spit out your gum and take off your hats⊠school is in session!
Homeroom
One of the things that I am going to try to accomplish as a writer is train you to think about things in different ways and present you with new ideas that may be applied to your existing trading and buying practices. I feel that the best way to do this is to give you some hands on experience on this very site! After all, as an Insider you are paying for this content, so we want to be sure that weâre giving you the tools and skills that youâll need in that harsh and unforgiving world that is your local LGS or favorite Online Store.
As such I have designed two exercises that I think youâll enjoy!
In this article I would like to introduce you to these exercises that I intend to run in my regular articles from time to time. I would very much appreciate your feedback, letting me know if this is something that you enjoy and find of value! They would not be entire articles, just fun little âgamesâ that we can âplayâ together as a wrap up.
(Note: All of the prices I use are from eBay completed auctions dated Nov 24th / 2011)
Without further ado I present to you the two new ideas:
- Trade or NO Trade?
- Snap-Buys
Trade or NO Trade?
In âTrade or NO Trade?â you will be presented with two piles and it will be your job to decide if the trade is good, bad, or equal, as well as which pile you would take.
This exercise will allow you to look at a trade and evaluate it, which will work on the following skills:
- Pricing â Which Pile is actually WORTH more?
- Uptrading â Useless T2 Rares vs. Proven Staples?
- Speculating â Is one pile worth more but the other has more potential?
- Opinion â Debating âclose callsâ to get a general consensus?
Letâs do a few of these now to get warmed up!
| << TRADE 1 â Mythic Madness >> | |
| PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
|
4x Stromkirk Noble |
1x Geist of Saint Traft |
So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2? Or are they even?
Think about it before you scroll downâŠ
| << TRADE 1 â Mythic Madness >> | |
| PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
|
4x Stromkirk Noble $5.5x4=$22 |
1x Geist of Saint Traft $12 3x Hero of Bladehold (Promo) $11x3=$33 4x Champion of the Parish $3.5x4=$14 |
| TOTAL = $65 | TOTAL = $59 |
While Pile 1 in this example comes out slightly ahead, this still looks like a relatively fair trade on both sides. Losing out on $5 to make a trade of this magnitude doesnât seem that bad since there are so many cards being shifted from one side of the table to the other.
If you were on Pile 1, sometimes itâs worth it to take a slight loss just to get all the cards you need from one place.
How do you feel about this trade? Would YOU have done it? Did you evaluate the card values at the same prices that I did? Did you need to look up the prices, or did you just know them off the top of your head? Try getting used to making your predictions without looking up the answers, then check your work to ensure you were correct.
| << TRADE 2 â Fish for Forces >> | |
| PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
| 1x Beta Lord of Atlantis (ex+) 3x Stifle 1x Tundra (nm-) 1x Flooded Strand |
3x Force of Will (ex) |
Think about it before you scroll downâŠ
| << TRADE 2 â Fish for Forces >> | |
| PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
| 1x Beta Lord of Atlantis (ex+) $40 3x Stifle $15X3=$45 1x Tundra (nm-) $80 1x Flooded Strand $25 |
3x Force of Will (ex) $50X3=$150 |
| TOTAL = $190 | TOTAL = $150 |
Bad deal for Pile 1! Everyone loves a good FoW, and people are more than prepared to pay their astronomical prices... But there is a difference between giving a good deal (like in Trade 1), and getting taken advantage of.
Itâs not unheard of to value FoW @ $60 in trade, but you have to look at every trade objectively. If it was the 3x FoW for a bunch of lesser cards like Shocklands, Hot T2 Planeswalkers, Zendikar Fetchlands and the like, I can see giving that kind of premium. However, weâre talking about Stifles, Duals, Betas and Onslaught fetches, which are all high demand themselves!
Not only that, but since I go by eBay completed listings when looking for prices, these are actual sell values. As such, theoretically, Pile 1 could do a little more work and sell all their cards for $190, buy the FoWs for $150 and pocket the leftover $40.
Câmon Pile 2⊠you could have at least put back that bonus Flooded Strand ya Greedo!
| << TRADE 3 â Random EDH Rares >> | |
| PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
| 1x FOIL Coalition Relic 1x Reveillark 1x Maelstrom Pulse 1x Baneslayer Angel 1x FOIL Birds of Paradise (M12) 1x Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre (FTV) 1x Doran the Seige Tower (FTV) |
1x Doubling Season 1x Pact of Negation 1x Crystal Quarry 1x Day of Judgment (MPR) 1x Sol Ring (REV) 1x Decree of Pain 1x Solemn Simulacrum (MIR) |
Think about it before you scroll downâŠ
| << TRADE 3 â Random EDH Rares >> | |
| PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
| 1x FOIL Coalition Relic $20 1x Reveillark $3 1x Maelstrom Pulse $8 1x Baneslayer Angel  $5 1x FOIL Birds of Paradise (M12) $5 1x Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre (FTV) $11 1x Doran the Seige Tower (FTV) $4 |
1x Doubling Season $20 1x Pact of Negation $12 1x Crystal Quarry $2.5 1x Day of Judgment (MPR) $3 1x Sol Ring (REV) $6 1x Decree of Pain $2.5 1x Solemn Simulacrum (MIR) $6 |
| TOTAL = $56 | TOTAL = $52 |
These are the kinds of trades that I feel youâll be seeing most of the time when trading with casual players. They find some stuff that they like, you find some valuables that you hope to re-trade for value.
It turned into another fair trade in the end, so my question is this⊠what side would YOU rather have taken?
Each side has some good stuff in it (Relic / Ulamog / Pulse in Pile 1 & Doubling Season / Pact / Solemn in Pile 2) so itâs in the air as far as Iâm concerned. In these kinds of trades the cards above are what I normally hone in on, as they are the ones that are actually valuable. As long as the valuable cards seem to line up fairly well, the little âthrow-insâ donât matter as much⊠especially if our side of the âbiggerâ cards is better!
As long as thatâs okay, just take the pile that you need and feel confident that you didnât get jacked, because sometimes thatâs all you can do! đ
TIP: In the kinds of trade like Trade 3 when the big stuff lines up but a side is down $5 or something menial, itâs okay to be the guy who loses. (As long as your partner isnât a shark!)
Say something to your trade partner like: âHmmm⊠looks pretty close, but I think youâre still ahead. Tell you what, letâs do it this time, but remember me for next time!â So you lose out on some terrible rares that no one else would have wanted anyway and you make a trading partner for life! Great deal.
Snap-Buys!
We are speculators and investors and, as such, probably spend a lot of time scouring buy/sell lists for deals or prices that havenât corrected themselves to reflect current market values. Sometimes itâs hard to know what you should and shouldnât be looking to buy when youâre presented with a wall of text and hundreds of different prices.
Snap-Buys is an exercise in quickly scanning sell lists to home in on what the better deals are within them. Together we will look through a random sell list, make the choices of what we would buy, then compare our lists to see if weâre all on the same page value-wise.
This exercise will allow you to look at a sell list and evaluate it, which will work on the following skills:
- Pricing â What are the good vs. bad deals?
- Speculating â Great place to buy cheap rares at bulk prices
- Comparison Shopping â Sell list prices vs. eBay prices
- Bartering â You can put in a lower offer to see if they accept
- Opinion â Since we all wonât choose the same things
If youâre looking for a TON of good sell lists, I like to go to MOTL (Magic Online Trading League) at www.magictraders.com and check out their sales threads. Most sites these days have some kind of trading community in their forums, so these are commonplace, and the strategies that you develop here can obviously be transposed to whatever lists you find.
Here is a list that I scooped from an active post today.
Make a list of those cards that you would buy! Whether for investing, speculating or simply trade for fun and profit.
(Quantity x Card - $Price)
3x Phantasmal Image - $8
1x Gilded Lotus - $8
2x Sacred Foundry - $15
2x Sensei's Divining Top - $11
2x Vendilion Clique - $24
1x Gilded Drake - $10
1x Phyrexian Dreadnought - $15
1x Consecrated Sphinx - $10
1x Maelstrom Pulse - $5
2x Day of Judgment - $1
1x Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker (COK) - $10
1x Idyllic Tutor - $5
3x Wrath of God (rev) - $4
2x Sol Ring (revised) - $6
2x Regal Force - $3
1x Adarkar Valkyrie - $4
1x Lightning Greaves (Commander) - $0.75
1x Akroma, Angel of Wrath (TSS) - $5
23x Demonic Tutor (rev) - $7
1x Kor Haven - $5
2x Flagstones of Trokair - $2
2x Molten-tail Masticore - $1.5
1x Eternal Dragon - $2
1x Academy Ruins - $6
1x Twilight Mire - $5
1x Mystical Tutor (mirage) - $2
1x Wurmcoil Engine (promo) - $17
1x Bridge from Below - $14
3x Puresteel Paladin - $2
1x Karn Liberated - $10
1x Gideon Jura - $9
2x Frost Titan - $3
1x Mox Opal - $20
1x Blade Splicer - $3
4x Spell Snare - $4
1x Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur - $3
4x Memoricide - $1
4x Inquisition of Kozilek - $2
2x Path to Exile - $2
2x Spikeshot Elder - $1
1x Grim Lavamancer (M12) - $3
1x Dungrove Elder - $3
1x Geist of Saint Traft - $12
1x Venser, Shaper Savant (ex) - $8
2x Vindicate - $26
3x Knight of the Reliquary (KvD) - $8
3x Show and Tell - $28
1x Force of Will - $55
2x Transmute Artifact - $15
5x Reset - $16
2x Null Rod - $8
2x Maze of Ith - $30
6x Baron Sengir - $3
1x Goblin Welder - $6
1x Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas - $12
8x Regrowth (rev) - $1
Thatâs the end of this list!
So⊠what did you âbuyâ?
Hereâs what I thought we could use:
1 Maelstrom Pulse $5
2 Day of Judgment $1
2 Molten-tail Masticore $1.5
1 Eternal Dragon $2
2 Path to Exile $2
These are the only cards I thought would be worthwhile from that entire list. Some cards were close to par value, others were slightly below, but these were the ones that I feel weâd be best off buying for value. Sure the Spell Snares @ $16 / playset looked good, but we could get those off eBay for that same price and they would only trade to another human @ $5 each⊠not enough room to profit. (I would have put an offer in with the seller for $12 / playset if they were interested, however. :))
Hereâs why I chose what I did:
- Maelstrom Pulse is showing up in Modern decks, is out of stock in NM on SCG @ $9.99 and actually sells for between $7-10 on eBay.
- Day of Judgment trades locally for $3 each and often, people will trade for them as a playset - meaning that your $4 investment = $12 in trade. If you can trade 4x DoJ for a Geist, youâre in great shape!
- Iâm speculating on Molten-Tail Masticore, since he puts cards in the graveyard and weâre currently just starting a graveyard-themed block. Heâs pretty powerful with his great CC vs. P/T, is mythic, and is under $2. Heâs a risk that Iâm willing to take, as Iâm sure I could just re-trade him at $2 if I had to.
- Eternal Dragonâs price fluctuates greatly between $2-$5 and heâs in basically every White EDH deck ever for his Plainscycling (read: Dual fetching) ability and recursion. You WILL be able to get $5 in trade for him.
- Path to Exile is a Modern staple and, while itâs only actually worth $2 right now, itâs another of those cards that fluctuate and are getting hard to find. Store these two with another two that you have lying around and trade them as a playset for $15. The buy-it-nows on eBay had one in NM- sell for $4.75 and a playset sell for $14.68 (in case you wanted a reference as to how high these CAN go).
Putting it All TogetherâŠ
The purpose of this article was to get our collective brains working and introduce you to a new style of interactive learning. I will be trying to incorporate these exercises into my weekly articles from time to time in order to keep us on our toes, adding some fun things to discuss through more of a âhands onâ approach to trading, which should have us soaking up data points up like sponges.
Again, Iâd love to hear your feedback on this initiative, as itâs something new that I havenât seen on any other website.
Until next time remember: âYouâre bigger than you think!â
Cheers,
Carl Szalich
Trade 1: got it right.
Trade 2: depends a lot on grading. I would not feel comfortable picking a side in that trade not knowing exactly what these cards look like. Especially a popular beta rare will be much harder to move if it's not interesting for collector's due to its condition. Those forces, even if they look worse will be much easier to move.
Trade 3: I would have preferred the right side, I find it hard to move foils, even to EDH players. I see the season going up.
The list of cards to buy couldn't really interest me: too long so not worth the effort as it's not something I could then buy. From a quick glance I would have considered the dreadnought and resets. Dreadnought seems a little on the low side and am looking for one, reset could be a good investment if Legacy tide decks decide to go for snapcaster and going off instant speed like in the days of Solidarity.
Hey PI! Thanks for the reply. I was hoping I'd get a post from you since I always see your constructive comments and evaluations in the forums :).
Trade 1 & 3 I would have been happy w / either pile, depending on which cards I actually needed. I would personally have taken Pile 2 in trade 1 and Pile 2 in trade 3 (Yes, both the "losing" piles haha), We're REALLY different on our trade when it comes to trade 2 however…
Assuming that we're both using the same grading scale, we can be safe with our conditions. I'm not going to try and trick you into having one piles EX being different from the other piles EX. The thing that I really liked about this trade was my final comment "Pile 1 could do a little more work and sell all their cards for $190, buy the FoWs for $150 and pocket the leftover $40." If I were the forces pile, I'd do that trade all day long! Tundra > FoW. To the right buyer Beta LoA = a FoW (but we'll give it $10 more from the $30 extra on the Tundra). That leaves the trade at 3x Stifle, 1x Flooded Strand and $20 (from the Tundra) for the last 1x FoW… I would NEVER do that trade ($90 vs $50). Since all of my prices are ACTUAL eBay sell values, this example was a great illustration of what NOT to do if you're the Tundra pile.
As far as the Snap-Buys section, it was designed so that when you DO see a buy list, you'll be familiar with them and how to check prices to compare. For example, you stated that you liked the Phyrexian Dreadnaught (@ $15) and the Resets (@ $16). By reviewing our results we can see that the Dreadnaught is only an "OK" deal (as it sells for between 10-15 on eBay = you're paying full price), but the Resets don't seem like a bargain. Yes, they DO hit $16 each SOMETIMES on ebay, but they also sell for as low as $10 ea or $41 playsets. You save $25ish by waiting patiently and trying to snipe an auction in this case, OR by asking the seller to work with you a little… maybe put in an offer $12 each? It's funny you'd mention this btw, as I agree on your call for resets… I've been picking mine up @ $10 each, so I know for SURE that we can do better than $16…
As for the Snap-Buys, I do regularly see such lists and then will review, just wanted to say it felt like too much effort to put into reading an article from my point of view as a reader. Of course possibly that's just me :).
I guess being from a whole different area of the world taints my view. Any dollar prices look pretty good to me due to the strong euro, also not that many copies of obscure legends cards are getting offered here. Even American shop prices are frequently better than what people seem to be asking for cards when dealing directly.
Hmmm… With that strong Euro maybe you would benefit from buying a bunch of cheap cards here, and selling them to individuals in your area? If right now they're stuck paying more than shop prices, perhaps this is a great chance for you to step up and act as a "middleman" and make a few sales here and there to cover your expenses? I'll bet if you started doing this, you could get a rep as the "go to guy" for great prices and make a killing! If the opportunity exists, you've just got to grap the reins brotha! I know you've got the skills and the mindset to do it… đ
The big problem is shipping time. Either you pay inflated shipping charges which make your profit vanish, or you wait for 2 weeks and whoever was looking for the card no longer is. I do do this every now and then if I see something for a price that's just too low, but not exclusively with US sellers. The profit margin also tends to be a little low as the people I currently have that would want me to go look for something for them are reasonably knowledgable on prices.
Mostly I try to find shop prices that will pretty much garantee a profit. For my work I sometimes travel to Germany and a shop there is generally behind, so when I go I make sure to browse through their binders (last trip got me foil shockduals at pre-modern prices even when non-foils were in a different binder at similar prices (!!!), a foil sword of light and shadow at about half of what they normally go for, etc.). I also have some Dutch stores with which I do the same (incidentally, the one I've used most for that seems to really like me as a customer and keeps throwing in nice goodies as well… weird :), I just wish he had more in stock). Many of my beta rares also come from a shop that was asking far too little, unfortunately the Sapphire I had also bought in the same deal has turned out to be a fake, pretty much ruining any profit I might have made on that one.
Another issue is the time I have available, I do have a full time job and a busy social life. My interest is more in keeping the cost of magic as a hoby down and less in actually getting a lot of income from it. As a result I do often buy from shops outside of The Netherlands, but mostly for cards I want for myself. I could see buying some of the high end cards I'm looking for from people on QS if that saves me money.
My problem with this is that the right buyer for that Lord will be much harder to find.
I was assuming the same trading scale, but past experience has shown me that people saying a card is EX could have it range anywhere from Good to indeed Excellent by my own definition (I am a rather tough grader). EX and EX+ could also be a world of difference, or rather close, depending on which scale is used. If the person grading the cards would be like the average trader or dealer I run into, that EX+ Lord is not going to be interesting for collectors and people who like to pimp out their decks. Therefore it will be much harder to move than Forces that just about everyone would like to get.
By my own grading, yes, I agree with which stack to go for, but I don't consider the difference to be as much as the numbers seem to show as I would want to see some compensation for the Lord being difficult to move if I was the one receiving it. Mostly I wanted to point out that the grading matters a lot in this case and that "a litle more work" might even be "a lot more work" depending on what the card actually looks like.
Also, happy to contribute :).
I should have made that "not as interesting" rather than "not interesting".
Piles: 1,1,2 – I share the desire to move less-liquid stuff like high-end commander foils. Also, the promo Ulamog can be found on SCG for less than the price you listed (before factoring in their current sale). Plus, I've found the promos do not move very well for me.
As for that buy list, a huge part of what I'd consider is whether paying cash or trading for the cards in question. If I was considering cash, the only cards I'd even contemplate were the Maelstrom Pulse, the Regal Forces, the Adarkar Valkyrie, and one of the gems of the list, the Gilded Drake. Additionally, these are rather stable cards right now, and the Pulse and Regal Forces could gain significantly with the right deck doing well in the upcoming PTQ season.
These are the cards I noticed that were at or barely above their SCG buy list prices, and I could probably find a buy list for more. Though a huge part of this is how much of a market I have to turn my cards into cash without using vendor buy lists. Myself, I don't have much of that market currently, and only deal with buy lists.
Nice Picks! I like how you chose the Regal Forces here as well because it REALLY has some great modern potential! Admittedly, even I didn't realize that the Gilded drake had gone up from $8 -> $10+ but eBay confirms it… good call! (And yes, we're talking about putting out real cash in this exercise)
I'm also one of those people who only uses eBay / buy lists then take those cards back into my local community to sell / trade them at my regional values, which often time differ greatly. Gotta play those markets! đ
Trade 1: I put the two piles VERY close on paper but I'd snap-take the pile with the Sword. Those will retain value forever, while the other stuff is largely standard chaff. SoFF is kind of insane as a card and nothing like it will be printed any time soon. the rest are just Generically Good Standard Cards.
Trade 2: The FoW guy is just a jerk! The other consideration is, when was the last time you EVEN SAW a Beta Lord of Atlantis? FoW are fairly common compared to Beta rares. Even I didnt know what to spot the Lord at; i was guessing 75-100
Trade 3: I don't think there's a clear winner. I like being on the side that gets the rarest card, which IMO is the Foil Relic. Probably just a square deal all around.
Glad you're on the team đ
Trade 1: I put the two piles VERY close on paper but I'd snap-take the pile with the Sword. Those will retain value forever, while the other stuff is largely standard chaff. SoFF is kind of insane as a card and nothing like it will be printed any time soon. the rest are just Generically Good Standard Cards.
Trade 2: The FoW guy is just a jerk! The other consideration is, when was the last time you EVEN SAW a Beta Lord of Atlantis? FoW are fairly common compared to Beta rares. Even I didnt know what to spot the Lord at; i was guessing 75-100
Trade 3: I don't think there's a clear winner. I like being on the side that gets the rarest card, which IMO is the Foil Relic. Probably just a square deal all around.
Glad you're on the team đ
I'm with Kelly. I saw Sword and immediately knew that was my pile once I realized they were within $10 of each other.
I'm not great with old beta prices, so I basically had to throw in the towel on the second one, and I would have taken the Coalition pile in the last trade.
These were fun, though, so keep it up!
Actually I have quite a few beta rares for trade or sale, only a year ago I moved a NM- Lord for a RV EX+ Savannah, a Flooded Strand and a Honor of the Pure (+throws), but before that the card had been sitting in my binder for years. Many of those beta rares I have now have been sitting in my binder as long or longer (I have stuff like Mind Twist, Bad Moon, Mana Flare, Chaos Orb, Royal Assassin, so comparable if not better).
There simply are very few takers for cards like that, I'm more likely to at some point put them in one of my own EDH decks instead. So I would say for that deal you need to consider holding the card for quite a while before you could move it.
Fun though that it entices so much discussion, so even just for that it's great that you included it.
LOL you and I are in EXACTLY the same situation right now! I've got a ton of nice beta stuff like WoG / Shivan / Serra etc but the people who show interest either a) Don't have the cards to trade for it or b) Try and value it so low that it's just not worth trading them. I've noticed that "beta chasers" REALLY know their stuff most of the time as well, so when I trade with them I'll normally just quote eBay prices since I KNOW that's what I can get for them should I choose to sell in that manner. (I totally want your Chaos Orb for my EDH deck btw!)
Send me a PM on the forum, we might be able to work something out. Alternatively, I might be interested in buying some of those, I could see wanting a Wrath in the future for EDH usage and I know I will want a Shivan eventually. It all depends on condition the cards are in though, I am picky.
The sword was def the "piece de resistance" in that trade. Having Olivia on that side also made you ask yourself if she's just a "flash in the pan" at her > $10 price point, so you had to balance that vs. losing the Hero's which as you've said have the potential to go up huge before the end of the standard season despite the fact that they were a promo offering. I can't see the sword going any higher than $30, but I CAN see the Heros going up to $15, so it's the opportunity cost that made me choose the Hero side in my selection. Glad you enjoyed it! đ
Great work, especially on the MOTL stuff.
Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it đ
I took pile 1, 1, and 2. The first because champion of the perish kinda sucks, whereas sword is awesome and everthing else is about equal. The second because 3 force of will just didn’t seem worth those cards, even though I admit I had no idea of the actual values. The third because foils are so hard to move, I’ve had a foil death baron for about two months now that I should’ve just e-bayed, because no one will trade for it! Even though they say they want it đ also, I had no clue a foil relic went so high, my guess was around $10.
I would have bought the eternal dragon because that seems like a good price, the 2 flagstones to complete my set for speculation and the adarkar valkyrie because my lgs is buying them for $5 so it would cover shipping. That was fun and informative, I really enjoyed it!
Glad you liked it Matt! Heh… here in London it seems like EVERYONE has jumped on the foil wagon, so there is never any shortage of peeps who want in on high value foils. Nice choices on your picks BTW… and good call rationalizing buying the Adarkar Valk just to trade in at a profit at your LGS to cover your expenses!