It's been a while since we've looked at the MTGO-to-Paper ratio, so checking in on what is happening there might show some interesting trends. Gatecrash also gets its first reported ratio, which is important because it is the first set with the higher redemption fee.

Previously, we could compare the ratio between sets to judge relative demand from redeemers. Also, it gave us benchmarks for set prices and an idea as to whether the set was expensive or cheap. With the higher redemption fees, we'll have to develop new benchmarks for comparison, although our older numbers will maintain some use.

Gatecrash

The latest release from WoTC is making waves in Constructed and after PT Gatecrash this weekend there should be some better information on the early direction of Standard. For the moment though, despite still being in the release period, Gatecrash's (GTC) ratio is already closing in on what Return to Ravnica's (RtR) ratio was a month after release. This suggests that the new redemption fees are already being priced into the market with lower prices for GTC singles on MTGO.

The big push of supply for GTC mythics will occur soon due to the first weekend of release events. There might be some opportunity to buy up junk mythics for a short term flip, but in general this is not the correct time to be bottom fishing with GTC cards. This set will be opened in draft right through the summer, and the Dragon's Maze release events in particular will produce a large flood of cards onto the market. Keep your bullets dry till that time to scoop up junk mythics or other speculative targets from this set.

Return to Ravnica

The ratio from this set has bumped up recently, which is entirely due to the drop in SCG's price. The set price on MTGO has fallen to a new low as players liquidate the cards they have for tix in order to play in GTC release events. This price weakness for digital RtR cards should be short-term. Once GTC release events wind down, focus will return to Standard and Block Constructed. Combined with the shift away from RtR drafting, this will support prices for RtR cards going forward.

There might be an opportunity to cash out on junk mythics and other cards from this set if demand from redeemers pushes prices up. This will be evident in the MTGO-to-Paper ratio, so keep an eye on this metric over the next few months.

Innistrad Block and Magic 2013

All three sets from this block have seen their ratio falling lately. For these sets, demand from redeemers is only a small component in the price. Much more important is the relative playability of the cards and the current need players have for tix.

Last year, there was some opportunity in both Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite and Sword of War and Peace. Both cards tanked in price prior to Dark Ascension releases events for no apparent reason. Both cards rapidly recovered their price once the short term pessimism or need for tix dissipated. The timing of the fall in price and subsequent rise is a little different for each card, but both give an idea of what is possible for short term opportunities in cards from last year's sets. Have a look at the charts below to see how quickly prices can change on MTGO.

Looking into the recent price activity on cards from Innistrad block does not reveal an equivalent play this year. Although we're seeing some price weakness in staples from these sets in general, nothing screams out as being irrationally priced in the manner of Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite and Sword of War and Peace at this time last year.

Three cards have been on my radar due to recent low prices. Olivia Voldaren has seen a recent drop in price which might fit the above pattern, but the magnitude of the drop is not similar. If you've been waiting to get your play set, it's a fine price currently but it doesn't look like a snap buy.

Thragtusk has been in a steady decline since peaking at around 18 tix in mid-November. This week it appears to have found a short term bottom at around 7.5 tix, and then has bounced higher to around 10 tix or so. It could see a return into the 13-14 tix range depending on how Standard works out. However, Boros Reckoner is going to have a big say on what Standard looks like moving forward.

Temporal Mastery is another card I have kept my eye on. Of all three, this one has the best short term speculative potential. See this article for a more detailed breakdown of why this card might bounce up in the short term.

Both Olivia Voldaren and Thragtusk offer some short term potential, but neither is a strong buy. If you decided to take a gamble on these cards, keep in mind that prices for Innistrad block and Magic 2013 will start coming down in the Spring. If these cards are rotting away in your collection at that time, the outlook for gains will be grim. Fighting against the market is a losing proposition, so consider these only as a short-term gamble.

Scars Block

Checking in on these sets, the ratios for Scars of Mirrodin (SOM) and Mirrodin Besieged have been relatively flat. New Phyrexia (NPH) has seen a drop off in prices due to reduced demand from redeemers.

As a set, NPH offers very little value to redeemers lately. Since the start of 2013, the ratio for NPH has been very high compared to other redeemable sets. This means that there is little demand to prop up the value of junk mythics in this set. This trend is obvious if you look at the price chart for Etched Monstrosity.

Since the start of the New Year, the price on this card has been tanking. When Modern season winds down, and if prices on cards like Batterskull, Karn Liberated and Spellskite drop, then an opportunity to buy up junk mythics such as Etched Monstrosity might come up.

Looking at the other Scars block sets, their flat ratios don't tell the whole story of what is going on in terms of redemption. Both sets have seen price increase on their mythics. Cards like Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas and Elspeth Tirel have seen steady gains since bottoming in the Fall. Both cards have little application in Modern, which suggests that steady demand from redeemers is responsible for the rising prices of particular cards.

Scars block sets and Magic 2012 will all be redeemable until the Fall of 2013. If you have been holding cards from SOM, NPH or M12, there will be continued price increases in the mythics from these sets over the coming months. If you need liquidity, selling now is not incorrect, but if you can afford to wait a until the summer, then this will be a better time to cash out on demand from redeemers.