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So, have you lightened up on Modern inventory yet? It's not a bad time to unwind positions. While shifting into Eternal staples is much cheaper than it was just three months ago thanks to Modern price spikes, a larger player base and much better value can be found speculating in Standard.
First, some cards to avoid:
Boros Reckoner how you mock me. Early Febuary I made a SELL recommendation on this guy and now moving copies at >$20 is Ebay easy. Up over 5 dollars in one day seems like a spike and I still can't get on board with the Reckoner at these prices.
Thragtusk just keeps making its way into Event Decks. Prices for this resilient beater are about to test pre-Return to Ravnica values but until I see prices hold above ten $10 on Ebay I am not ready to call a bottom. I would open a position at <$10.
With copies of Aurelia's Fury down more than 20% from a $25 Gatecrash release price, we've got a mythic worth watching. Here is a card that is looking to get abused with Snapcaster Mage but has Avacyn Restored's Bonfire of the Damned and Entreat the Angels miracles to compete with. I think Bonfire is going to always keep a lid on Aurelia's Fury pricing while, at least while copies are selling for <$10, Entreat the Angels seems like much better value.
What I'm looking to acquire:
Would you rather own a single copy of Entreat the Angels or five playsets of Signal the Clans? The instant is a likely inclusion in any Commander deck that can run it and it looks very breakable at 2cc. This card has Gifts Ungiven price potential even if it lacks the blue card's functionality.
For as little as $1.75 you can pick up Firemane Avenger. Dealing three damage to any target and gaining three life in a fast Standard environment is very good. With Lingering Souls, Thatcher Revolt and other token producing spells to keep Battalion triggers activated, the Avenger is a spec target with a great chance to spike. I'll be looking to slowly trade/ sell out of copies at $5.
Legion Loyalist is a bargain at less than $4. Goblins see play in every Magic format and offers red players a superb one drop. In Standard both first strike and can't be blocked by tokens are very relevant, making the Loyalist capable of shaking up a meta relying on efficient token generation.
Clan Defiance is a card I'm having a hard time evaluating. While it doesn't compare well to Bonfire, it is often more bang for the buck when compared to Aurelia's Fury. With Ebay offering speculators a chance to grab copies for less than $1.5 per, Clan Defiance is not a bad play if you can imagine a Standard decklist looking to running eight similar effects.
About Shocks
Steam Vents for less than $6.5 is crazy. Right now Guildpact versions are over $15 and even if you think that is high, a 49% discount seems excessive.
Return to Ravnica's Hallowed Fountain is currently discounted 51% to its Dissension counterpart. With near mint copies still treading over $10 mid, the Fountain is going to be a much more popular card in Modern formats.
Near mint Gatecrash copies of Breeding Pool already command a price of $12, making it more expensive than either Hallowed Fountain or the Steam Vents. But compring that $12 price to Dissension prices you'll see that these lands sell at a 48.5% discount to Dissension copies.
While old Shocklands test all time lows thanks to a flood of supply, picking up any Shockland at current prices is likely to pay off. What follows is a little cheat sheet, naming the card and its discount to older copies:
Blood Crypt (42%)
Breeding Pool (48.5%)
Godless Shrine (36%)
Hallowed Fountain (51%)
Overgrown Tomb (39%)
Sacred Foundry (14%)
Steam Vents (49%)
Stomping Ground (30%)
Temple Garden (30.5%)
Watery Grave (27%)
From that list it should be clear why Hallowed Fountain, Steam Vents and Breeding Pool are a speculators best Shockland targets.
You feel this way even though shocks will be opened like candy on Halloween during Dragon Maze pre releases?
quote from WoTC “You are about half as likely to open a shockland in Dragon’s Maze as in Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash and, since this is for all ten shocklands rather than five, that means you are about a quarter as likely to open a specific one. There’s also a mythic rare land from Dragon’s Maze that will show up there sometimes!”
i think that they can appreciate to at least half of what older versions are trading at today. that is why i like the ones near 50% discount. you get a larger margin of safety.
so yes.that said you are still making bank on reckoner and grats.
What’s your timeline on Signal the Clans potentially reaching the price of Gifts Ungiven? Signal the Clans doesn’t seem to be Standard playable IMO, while Gifts Ungiven defined archetypes while it was in block and standard. I understand that Commander might drive this card’s price in the long run, but how long does it take for a card to move from bulk pricing to something like $10?
it is a card i am buying for its Modern and legacy playability. i doubt standard makes use of it while they are in rav block, but i like the price and their is a chance someone makes use of it earlier.
so it is a longer term play for me.
You realize you get the creature at random right? I think this limits it’s playability, if it’s playable at all.
how different is random from opponent’s choice? we are talking about a bulk rare.
there won’t be as many opened, i read somewhere that they all will compete for 1 slot with other cards.
Are you sinking cash into these Shocks, are just acquiring through trades? If cash, what are your target buy prices for the blue shocks?
i am buying steam vents. i am buying hallowed fountain. i could justify breeding pool but it is easier to aquire in trade for me and prices could drift lower on newer shocks as david suggests.
i am picking them all up in trade, they are liquid even if some look overvalued longer term to me (sacred foundry the best example of that).
Ya..but local players LOVE them some Naya/Boros so Sacred Foundry and Stomping Grounds (while worse long term are highly desirable now..similar to Temple Garden)
Thanks for the shock “cheat sheet”. It’s also pretty likely that the Gatecrash shocks will follow the same trajectory as the Ravnica ones…meaning they all started at 15ish slowly trickled to 13 then with the second print run (and about a month or two of being opened) dropped to the 7-9 range. This is when I’ll be acquiring them en masse.
still like breeding pool in the new set, but i also think all the gatecrash shocks can decline. they are sought after though, so trading into them is a win imo.
color me crazy, but I can’t see nearly as much Gatecrash being opened as RTR saw. The power in the cards just doesn’t seem to exist. Probably too early to call that though, what with the PT in a matter of days.
The big thing is that all drafts will be triple Gatecrash (draft is often a large % of packs opened..so that won’t be any different) the only difference is the people cracking packs on their own looking for value (which frankly doesn’t work out well anyways).