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This may be a bit belated, but itās time for the set review (review).
Now, to get this out of the way up front. Chad and I had developed a system for grading each otherās predictions intending to remove some bias, but with him on a short break Iām going to try and grade myself here. But donāt worry, I can be a harsh jerk to myself just fine.
Also, the usual disclaimer for anyone whoās new. I do these review pieces for a few reasons. First off, theyāre fun, but more importantly itās a question of accountability. When I started writing years back the internet was rampant with āexpertsā who would make one accurate call and then talk about it for months on end as an example of just how amazing they were at this MTG Finance Thing, and why you should always listen to them and elevate their opinion.
Of course, these same āexperts,ā (most of whom are no longer recognized in the community, go figure) would never talk about the cards they missed hard on. Telling someone to buy in [card Venser, the Sojourner]Vensers[/card] or [card Koth of the Hammer]Koths[/card] at high prices and then acting like that never happened when the card falls to bulk planeswalker status is not a good way to build credibility. But because no one was tracking these things, it was very easy for people to overstate their accuracy. This in turn can lead people to make poor financial decisions based off the advice of someone who isnāt forthcoming.
Building Accountability
Thatās why I started these reviews, as a way to hold myself accountable. Itās also why I donāt shy away from my missed calls, from Splinterfright to Master of the Pearl Trident. Iāve made plenty of really good calls, and I know my speculation advice makes me money personally, so Iām comfortable with where Iām at. But I donāt want to give the impression that Iām never wrong, because I am.
Thatās why we do these. So letās start.
Aurelias Fury
Then:
The community seems to be split on this card. This strikes me as one of those situations where in a year people will be like āoh yeah, I knew it would be XX,ā forgetting that there was once a big debate about the card.
For what itās worth, I think this card is pretty solid as something like a 2-of in certain decks. Itās sometimes just a Silence with upside, but itās also sometimes a one-sided board sweep or a Fireball that ends the game. Thatās a lot of versatility.
That said, it seems like it canāt really be worth more than Sphinx's Revelation. Even if it spikes, I see this settling somewhere between $10 and $15.
Now:
All the way down to $5 on SCG. Itās quite the drop for a card that people were once predicting to be the big hit from the set. I thought it would be worth a little more because I envisioned it as a 2-of in Flash decks, which didnāt quite pan out. I did, at least, correctly call it moving down from the absurd presale price it was holding at the time.
Aurelia, the Warleader
Then:
There seems to be some renewed hope about this card, and the power level is certainly very, very high. I donāt think it goes in the aggressive Boros deck but I do think the UWR decks could make use of it, since curving [card Thundermaw Hellkite]Thundermaw[/card] into this ends the game. Pre-ordering at $15, and I could see it spiking higher than that, but I do think $10-15 is where this will settle as well.
Now:
$10 on SCG. The two-of spot I saw going to Aureliaās Fury actually just went to the big angel herself, and this settled accordingly. I donāt think this is a terrible pickup right now, by the way, since we could see $15-20 post-rotation. And itās a big dumb mythic angel, so thereās that.
Domri Rade
Then:
Iām not as big on this card as Ryan Bushard is on our podcast (www.BrainstormBrewery.com), but I do think itās solid. That said, so is something like [card Ajani, Caller of the Pride]Ajani[/card], and that sees basically no play. Unless Iām way wrong on the power level here, I imagine this will be a $8-12 āwalker that sees some fringe play, certainly not the $25 retail it is now.
This is something to keep an eye on down the road, since after rotation itās still going to be a powerful turn two play.
Now:
SCG still has these at $18, while the TCGPlayer average is a bit under $13. When I make these predictions I usually do so with SCG(ish) in mind, so by that metric I undershot this a little, while being more in line with TCG. The card has steadily trended downward since the Pro Tour spike we covered on QS, but it has shown signs of stabilizing. That means itās likely to maintain its current price at least until rotation, when metagame shifts could push it down to $5 or up to $20.
Duskmantle Seer
Then:
This is actually a pretty sweet card, and heās a good beater in an aggressive deck. That said, aggro is hard to do in these colors and there are many better four-drops out there. And since I only think this guy is good as the top-end of an aggro deck, I expect it to come down to $5 or so and maybe even a little lower, though having the Dark Confidant ability will help buoy it some.
Now:
$6 on SCG. Nailed this one, and I donāt see it changing too much going forward. The ability is just so hard to find a home for and Iām not sure it will ever break through. That said, the upside here is obvious if we do start to see something come along with the Seer as a mainstay.
Gideon, Champion of Justice
Then:
Speaking of overhyped cards, I have a hard time seeing Gideon do a ton. I think heās got enough versatility to work in either a control or midrange deck, but I donāt see him being so insane as to impact the format right away. Retailing at $30 right now, I expect this to come down to $10-15.
Now:
$6 on SCG. Itās come down even further than I expected, and itās a long way from the $30 it presold for. I hope you took my advice and unloaded any of these you may have gotten at the prerelease.
Obzedat, Ghost Council
Then:
This guy is good. Heās Thragtusk after Thragtusk rotates. Which means, even if he sees some play now, heās going to come down to $15 or maybe even a little lower in the meantime.
But the power level is definitely there on this card, and he dodges pretty much everything in Standard right now. Heās going to be good, even if it isnāt for a while, although the tough casting cost could be an issue.
Now:
$15 on SCG. With [card Turn]Turn//Burn[/card] printed, I doubt this guy reaches Thragrusk levels of playability, but I do think heās still the finisher of choice for control decks post-rotation. I donāt hate trading for it at $15, and if it dips any lower Iāll be going very deep into it.
Prime Speaker Zegana
Then:
Weāve seen with Revelation how good card draw can be, and Zegana certainly does that (and sheās a merfolk!) That said, sheās certainly good with a Restoration Angel or āTusk out, but so would anything youāre paying six mana for. Bant decks could use her, perhaps even some midrange deck in the grindy mirrors, but I donāt think itāll be in great numbers.
Preselling at $15, but probably more like $8-10 down the road.
Now:
Well, I certainly nailed her playability since the grindy Bant Zegana deck did become a thing and spike her price. Sheās $7 right now on SCG after falling, spiking, and then falling again. I donāt think sheās going to move much from there, to be honest, as playing Zegana without Thragtusk becomes a lot more risky after rotation.
Assemble the Legion
Then:
Hereās the thing about this card. Itās retailing at $1.50 right now, which is practically bulk. I donāt hate it as a throw-in target because this thing gets out of control pretty quickly, although it doesnāt seem to have a good home yet.
But the power level on this card is high. It could find a place either in a board-control deck, winning on its own if left unchecked without requiring additional mana, or in a midrange deck as a recurring source of creatures against said control decks. Not necessarily expecting big things from this, but the power level is there, so there are worse cards to target on the cheap.
Now:
$2 on SCG, and it spiked higher when it began seeing play as I predicted. That means if you got in for the near-bulk price they were the first few weeks you did very well once it hit. Itās pretty much a known quantity now, so weāre back to picking them up cheaply in case rotation boosts it again. Either way, weāve already made our money on this card.
Blind Obedience
Then:
People have been slowly catching onto this (after us in the forums, I believe). It slows down the haste decks, provides incremental advantage in extort, isnāt dead in multiples and also stops some of the combo decks in Modern.
Thatās a lot of good things, but $5 is still too high. $3 seems more likely.
Now:
$4 on SCG. Not much to see here, this card did as expected, and played a role in knocking off the BR Aggro decks as we predicted.
Boros Reckoner
Then:
Iām not sure Standard play alone will keep this at $4, but the card is solid. It will probably see play even if itās only in the sideboard, and will be pretty dang good in Boros mirrors or against any non-Wrath deck. I can see this moving up in price when people realize this, even if it doesnāt stay that high forever.
Also, Spitemare buylists for a quarter. Random fact, sure, but the Reckoner is the only card with the same ability weāve seen since, so itās something to keep in mind. I like this as a trade target at $2-3 or lower.
Now:
$15 SCG, $12ish TCGPlayer.
Well, targeting this at $2 was certainly correct. Of course, so was targeting it at $12, so I canāt say I called the meteoric rise this card experienced. That said, I did at least identify it as a pickup, and I did so at my prerelease events. I made money from this prediction, and I hope you did too. Itās not often we see the confluence of factors that led to this hitting $25, so I wouldnāt expect that to become the norm moving forward.
Also, I hope you moved yours at $20+ when myself and others suggested it, since itās halved since then. It does seem fairly stable at its current price.
Shocklands
Finally, we have the Gatecrash shocklands. These havenāt quite hit RTR shock levels, so Iām not going really hard into them when in comparison to something like Steam Vents and Hallowed Fountain. That said, I donāt mind picking them up right now since supply is fairly stable at this point. And, as I pointed out in the original article, Breeding Pool is still the best target from a pure supply perspective, considering itās the only shock that was in Dissension (the third set of original Ravnica) as well as Gatecrash, which was opened less than RTR.
Well, there we go! Looking forward to grading my Dragonās Maze picks in a few months.
Thanks for reading,
Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter
I have a lot of respect for people who retroactively call themselves out on bad calls.
How do you feel about Voice of Resurgence now? This is what you said about the card:
This is one of the cards people are really divided over. Some think itās the best thing ever while others are pretty āmehā about it and its $20 preorder price.
Iām somewhere in between. I think the card is solid but donāt see it going nuts any time soon, and leaving behind a 1/1 isnāt exactly the best Wrath defense weāve ever seen.
In summation, then, $6-9 card.
Well to be fair..it hasn’t been out long, so the price is still heavily inflated by lack of supply (as opposed to exorbitant demand). I’m still with Corbin on this one…the card is overhyped, though I can see it being closer to $12-15 because people want to play it in older formats too (though I still think they will be sadly mistaken)
I always base my calls 3-4 months down the road, and it does remain to be seen. The card is better than I gave it credit for initially, so I’m moving closer to the $15 mark, but it remains to be seen.
What things have you done to refine your card evaluation skills over time?
Lots and lots of experience is probably the best way to put it. Another is listening to those better than to me on how good a card is, and comparing it to similar cards from past sets to find an appropriate marker in terms of price.