Today we're going to go over the immediate price impact Modern Masters has had on many of the Modern staples. Normally, this isn't something you'd do when a set first releases because people keep opening packs, thus adding to the supply and dropping prices rather rapidly after the first few weeks.

Using WeQu's EV calculations for MM we can see something similar has already happened with Modern Masters, at an accelerated rate. The irony is that many people probably believe the prices will continue their downward trend for the next few weeks (as that's what we are accustomed to). The catch is that most Modern Masters that will be cracked already has been. There won't be a gradual increase of the supply as time passes.

I know my local area is dried up already. And we even got a Modern Masters GPT for Las Vegas (one clever store owner got WoTC support to increase the amount of Modern Masters he'd have by doing it this way).

As many conjectured however, the release of Modern Masters has increased he player base for Modern. (I'm starting to see more people post on my LGS facebook page requesting Modern staples.) You'll want to make sure you get your staples quickly before this increase in demand causes prices to rebound.

However, it is crucial to keep in mind not all prices will rebound the same, and some may not at all. Cards that are limited to one per deck or 1-2 sideboard slots, as well as cards that don't see play in Modern, will most likely show no immediate rebound. Most will probably go back up in value somewhat, but cards like the mythic dragons and/or the swords will not do so in a timely manner.

Trading for (Discounted) Staples

If you are planning on playing Modern competitively (or expect to have enough trade partners in your area who will) I suggest picking up the following Modern Masters cards. They are broken up into specific categories to aid with trade priority.

Top-Tier Staples

The Top-Tier Staples are good in multiple formats and will most likely be the most desired cards from Eternal players in your area. I'm only looking at Kitchen Finks for $5.00 or less and Path to Exile at $3.50 or less.

Modern Archetype Staples

The Modern archetype staples have some bleed over from Top Tier, but are more likely going to be desirably only by players playing that particular archetype (i.e. something running Jund won't need any of the cards on that list). Look for Spell Snare at $3.00 or less and Lightning Helix at $1.75 or less.

EDH Staples

The EDH staples are cards that may or may not see much Modern play, but have a strong demand among the casual/EDH crowd. Here I don't want Woodfall Primus over $3.00 or Eternal Witness over $1.25.

Foils

Trading for foil MM versions of any of the previously mentioned staples is obviously appealing. Another set of cards to target are foil copies of highly desirable commons like:

All of these were valuable commons at some point. Some dropped a bit after reprints (Stinkweed Imp, Kodama's Reach), but for the most part foils of these cards are valued roughly two times their non-foil price. This is standard for most foils, but these cards used to be worth far more than that. Even if they don't match their previous price, it's not inconceivable for them to go up from current prices.

Last but not least,

Sealed Product

I feel that Modern Masters sealed product will be extremely valuable in the future. My reasoning is simple: most stores sold out within the first 24 hours and I saw more people than not cracking it immediately. My estimate is that in three month's time 80-85% of Modern Masters will have been opened.

I've heard numerous opinions on Modern Masters as a limited format. Personally I found it challenging and very similar to Cube, in which there are a lot of high-power cards and your decision tree is more complicated. This is a good thing (to me at least) and makes me think that it will be highly sought after by friend groups looking to set up a side draft (the considerable cost and lack of availability does imply that larger stores won't be able to run these events themselves.)

A friend of mine (and fellow QS writer) has already garnered support to do a draft with his box, even at $40 per person. With seven people (excluding himself), this translates to $280 for the box. This shows a strong enough demand for product that in 4-5 months prices of $350-400 might be commonplace, which means with a bit of patience (and a good box purchase price) one can net a 100%+ profit.

I will say that the ROI on these boxes has dropped dramatically in the past week. Originally it was around $14 per pack and now it's close to $9, but that will probably go back up as people realize just how limited the product is.

It's also important to note that supply was so limited that the boxes may not be mappable (as people were typically unable to get enough product to run the numbers for the algorithm.) This also means that even individual sealed packs will maintain a higher value as fear of getting mapped packs should be virtually non-existent.