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I donāt have enough words for a long introduction, thereās too much to cover below. Letās skip that nonsense and get to the discussion. Below are the cards from Innistrad block that are pertinent to Modern (and Legacy to a lesser extent):
Clifftop Retreat / Hinterland Harbor/ Isolated Chapel / Sulfur Falls / Woodland Cemetery
Other than Sulfur Falls, none of these have seen significant Modern play. That said, it is almost always correct to pick up lands at rotation. These are currently all sitting above $5, so donāt start picking them up just yet. But if they drop to around $2 or $3, you canāt go wrong trading for as many as you can.
Delver of Secrets (foil)
For some reason foil Delver is currently only sitting around $5. Given that the card sees Legacy and Modern play, this seems criminally low, even for a common. Iād trade for copies at this price, and Iād even go deep if they see a significant drop after rotation (which probably wonāt happen, as the card hasnāt seen Standard play for the last year). There might even be marginal long-term upside to picking up non-foil copies.
Gavony Township
This card sees play, usually as a three-of, in both of the popular versions of Birthing Pod decks in Modern. If that deck isnāt nerfed by bannings in the next year or two, Gavony Township could see some nice gains. I have a hard time seeing it getting as high as $10, but $5 seems extremely likely if nothing in the meta changes. Currently selling at around $1, with some copies as low as half that, this seems like a great throw-in target for the next several months.
Geist of Saint Traft
This is one of the more powerful creatures that has ever been printed, and its current price tag in excess of $20 reflects that. Iām not sure how much this will drop at rotation, as many players will be keeping their copies for Modern. For my part, Iāve decided to hang on to my playset, as I picked them up for $11 each and Iām not sure the card will ever go lower than that. If it does, well then youād better have some sweet trade bait to get as many of these as you can. The only thing keeping this from hitting Vendilion Clique-like prices is how much more Innistrad was opened than Morningtide. Still, with the game growing steadily, there may not be enough Geists to go around in a year or two.
Geralf's Messenger
There was a brief period where Jund played this card over Kitchen Finks. Nowadays, Modern Jund lists donāt run either card, so Iām not sure how strong a pickup it is. Currently sitting at $2.50 or so, Iād only pick this up for Eternal purposes if it dropped below a dollar. Even then, it might never see play again.
Gravecrawler
Sam Blackās Legacy Zombardment deck has kept this card at around $4. Given that the deck hasnāt dominated in any way and this card hasnāt seen any Modern play, Iām not looking to pick any of these up. I am, however, holding on to a playset out of an abundance of caution. The card gets better with each new Zombie printed, is from a small set, and is objectively powerful. Trading these was the right call a few months ago, but at $4, Iām holding. If it drops below $2, I might consider picking up a few more, but Zombies hasnāt seen Standard play for a while, which means this cardās price is likely coming from Legacy and casual players.
Griselbrand
Griselbrand is sweet, thereās no doubt, but Iām going to keep away. Heās above $10 so the buy-in is high. He is banned in Commander so thereās no casual demand. And Wizards has shown in the past theyāre willing to ban this type of card-draw effect. He will probably grow steadily for a while, but I feel like sitting on any of these for an extended period is risky business.
Huntmaster of the Fells // Ravager of the Fells
It appears that Huntmaster of the Fells has replaced Bloodbraid Elf in Modern Jund lists. If Jund continues to be as heavily played as it was last season, thereās virtually no way this doesnāt see long-term gains, especially being from a poorly-received small set. Itās currently sitting at $10, which seems like a reasonable price to get a playset, but Iād like to see it dip to $5 or $6 before I start investing for speculative purposes.
Liliana of the Veil
Liliana is still over $40. This price is almost entirely based on Modern and Legacy play, so I donāt know if weāll see any drop at all come rotation. Sigmund Ausfresser has been pointing out for a while now that the card as seeing more Legacy play than Jace, the Mind Sculptor. I donāt know if the future price trajectory for Liliana will mirror Jace, but itās possible. That said, I donāt like to invest in expensive cards like this, as the risks are much higher and the potential gains are much lower. If you need a set for play, you probably want to pick these up as soon as possible after rotation.
Olivia Voldaren
Olivia has seen some occasional Modern play, but usually as a one- or two-of. At its current price of around $8, Iām staying away, but if it drops to $3 at rotation, this becomes a fine target.
Past in Flames
Before Storm was nerfed, this would have been a sure-thing, as its price has always been fairly low. As is, Iām advocating picking up this card on power-level alone, not because it sees any current play. Itās only $1.50, so thereās not much to lose.
Restoration Angel
This is one of my favorite Magic cards ever, so Iām pretty biased in its favor. Still, I think it receives the same evaluation as Olivia: stay away at $8, pick them up at $3-4. In Restoration Angelās favor, the card is a four-of in Kiki Pod and sees some occasional play elsewhere. However, itās only a rare, which might keep its long-term price depressed somewhat when compared to comparably-priced mythics.
Snapcaster Mage
Snapcaster Mage pretty much held steady above $20 its entire time in Standard. Iām very interested to see where it ends up long-term. It is an inevitable reprint for Modern Masters II, but we donāt know how long it will take for that set to drop. Itās worth noting that Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf were printed at mythic and both have seen price increases, so Snapcaster might not be doomed to a value-destroying reprint. Iām holding my playset (plus one for EDH) indefinitely, but Iām keeping an eye on the rotation price before I decide whether to pick up any more.
Stony Silence
In my last article I claimed I learned my lesson on narrow sideboard cards, but thereās always an exception. This gets a mention because it shuts down certain strategies in Modern, but is currently at bulk prices. I wouldnāt go out of my way to pick these up (Rest in Peace is better), but these are the types of throw-ins that might have some long-term upside.
Terminus
This is one of the few cards on the list I think is worth picking up right away. It hasnāt seen any Modern play yet, and its Legacy play in Counter-Top has been held down by Abrupt Decay, but $3 is extremely low for a one-mana wrath that keeps cards out of the opponentās graveyard. This has been as high as $11, and I wouldnāt be surprised to see it reach that point again in the next year or two.
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Thalia was hurt by the Event Deck printing, for sure. The card was around $6 and then, BOOM, that price was cut in half. Although its upside has probably been downgraded from $15 to $10, I think this is another card worth picking up right away. Itās seeing more Modern play, and if Maverick ever sees a resurgence in Legacy, Thalia will be a moneymaker.
Zealous Conscripts
I love this card, and I have ever since I used it in draft to kill a Tamiyo by using her ultimate ability. It sees play as a one-of in Kiki Pod, so I donāt know how much upside there is. Itās only a dollar, though, so if you can pick them up as throw-ins, you should.
Odds and Ends
Itās worth being aware of the following cards, but I donāt have high hopes for any of them to break through in Modern. Still, a sentence for each seems appropriate.
Bonfire of the Damned: powerhouse in Standard; probably wonāt make the jump to Modern, but anythingās possible.
Craterhoof Behemoth: lots of combo potential here.
Desolate Lighthouse: Iāve seen it in Kiki Twin lists, but itās not exactly efficient.
Entreat the Angels: Counter-Top doesnāt really see play and this was only good in that, but maybe something will change someday?
Falkenrath Aristocrat: the power-level is high and an aggressive deck might want this as a curve-topper.
Garruk Relentless // Garruk, the Veil-Cursed: has actually seen fringe Legacy play; can be removal, tutor, and token-maker.
Heartless Summoning: will Theros produce an enchantment-matters card that might make this consistent?
Kessig Wolf Run: probably too mana-hungry to make the jump.
Moorland Haunt: sees occasional Modern play as a one-of; not a lot of upside, but a good throw-in.
Nephalia Drownyard: if Modern control ever becomes a real thing, this might be a part of that.
Sigarda, Host of Herons: sees occasional one-of sideboard play out of Pod decks; too high now, but keep an eye on post-rotation price.
Vexing Devil: the price for this is annoyingly high due to casual demand, but it sees occasional play in Modern burn decks and is worth mentioning.
Last Thoughts
The adjustment to the PTQ season schedule could have some profound effects on Modern card prices. It's possible the best time to pick up Modern specs isn't directly after rotation, but three to four months later, when Theros Standard is in full swing and Modern is still a few months down the line. The good news is that we're going to have more time to stockpile our targets. The bad news is we're going to have to wait several extra months before we find out if our speculation paid off. Invest accordingly.
Very thorough analysis. Thanks for the shout-out re: Liliana. I struggle to drop $40 on a card rotating out of Standard as well, but I did pick up a foil Liliana with the hopes these don’t drop in price at all at rotation. The Legacy and Modern market should keep this price high with lots of upside.
“He is banned in Commander so thereās no casual demand.”
aaaand credibility shot :<
Okay, maybe I resorted to a bit of hyperbole, but that’s harsh, man. š
no demand in MY playgroup. >:|. I’m sitting on three
With respect to Snapcaster, I’m not sure that Innistrad is automatic for MM2. Maybe if it doesn’t come out till 2016 — Shards was five years old when MM was released.
Conscripts was an Intro Deck Foil, so be aware of quantity issues there.
Fairly certain that Garruk Relentless is seeing play in the BG decks in Modern as well now. Still in small numbers, but might be that getting his foot in the door there will help him out long term.
I like Garruk Relentless a lot…the fact that he’s a doubled sided card REALLY limits the chances of a reprint (as it requires the checklist cards too for any sort of limited format though they would be necessary for any format where he could be played w/o sleeves)
Also, Cavern of Souls should likely be mentioned as a four-of in Legacy Goblins, most non-Elves tribal, and in demand for casual (EDH and other) use across the board.
Cavern of Souls is a major omission on my part, thanks for pointing this out. This is another card that held $20 it’s entire time in Standard and is an excellent pick-up at $10 (if it drops that far).
I really love foil geists right now, because of it’s desired in every format and player type.
Thanks for the review…straight to what matters and with lots of important cards š
Griselbrand – Plenty of brewing potential for this in Modern and has already proven itself in Legacy. It probably has some casual demand outside of EDH due to its iconic nature. I just can’t agree with you on this one; I’ll be picking these up cheap whenever I can.
Kessig Wolf Run – This is a 1-of in Living End. This is a very powerful land and I wouldn’t be surprised if other usages for it crop up as Modern evolves.
I do like the format of your review, though. Straight to the point.