Last week Phyrexian Obliterator got completely cleaned out on TCGPlayer and other sites. No copies existed, and for about 12 hours it was a $35 card.

Today, there are copies available for $20. Right back where we were before this started.

When the buyout happened, I was ready. I found the last few copies available at $20 on the internet and thought about whether or not it was time to jump in for cash. I had a handful I picked up trading at $13-15 when we originally began talking about this card two months ago, and I was wondering if the right play was to buy in at $20 cash and hope to flip when the card stabilized at $30-35.

I passed. And that proved to be the correct decision.

So why did I make that decision?

What’s the Spike?

As I talked about a few weeks back, there are several types of price spikes cards go through these days. And this was a clear example of a hype-driven buyout.

A few things you should know. As of Wednesday, Phyrexian Obliterator is $26 mid on TCGPlayer. Karn Liberated is $29.

Both are mythics from the same set, and both have some casual appeal. One of these is a Cube, Commander and Modern staple, while the other has some potential Modern applications. One has put up consistent results and one has yet to do literally anything in a major event.

A freaking $3 price difference? Either Karn is massively underpriced, or Obliterator is overpriced. I’ll choose the latter.

It’s this line of thinking that led me to pass at $20, and it’s one that has me fired up about the mindset of some speculators.

The Rant

I’m not accusing any of you of this, nor am I saying that it’s even necessarily wrong. But the fact remains that far too many people are far too impatient to make this Magic finance thing work.

To be honest, I blame the MTGFinance subreddit for part of this. It’s great that the subreddit exists, and even though the content and quality is extremely weak compared to our forums, it’s nice that it’s made more people interested in the financial side of the game. After all, that not only likely makes us more money, but it allows more people to better finance playing Magic, which is great.

But the impatience is almost certainly what drove the spike on Obliterator and Spellskite.

Why do I say that? Consider this: Obliterator and Spellskite are cards we’ve talked about in columns and our forums for months now. They begin to see some increased demand, and the prices gradually rose. Same with Splinter Twin, which we’ll get to in a second.

So Obliterator began to see some movement, and a post was made on the sub about it. That got a few more people interested, and surprise, a few days later someone decides to buy out the card, likely thinking about Splinter Twin and hoping to double up just as it did.

Except it didn’t work, because one of these is a real card with demand and the other is being dragged along the hype train. I imagine whoever orchestrated this buyout is feeling pretty silly right now. Buylists didn’t move an inch, and even if they outed a few on TCGPlayer after buying it out, it can’t have been many. Considering the price was back down in a day, it seems no one was buying at the “new” price.

Look, maybe Obliterator is the real deal, and maybe it’s going to be a $35 card come Modern season. But that was a reason to buy in at $13 when we originally talked about, not $20+ now that everyone is talking about it but no one is playing it.

So back to Splinter Twin. I think we all understand the reasons why Splinter Twin spiked. There has been growing demand for the card, steady growth and dwindling supply. When the market caught onto this and it reached a tipping point the card doubled up and jumped to $10 as everyone bought in. Know what’s happened since then? It’s gone down exactly 50 cents. In other words, the new price held.

When people saw this, they immediately began looking for the next target, and seized on Spellskite. That created a round of buying at $8. Since then, the card has gone to $10 and stayed steady there. That’s a reasonable market correction and one I expect to hold as well (and $15+ in-season isn’t out of the question).

The Point

Two of these three were good buys. Twin was obviously the best, because it flew under the radar of the general population outside of QS and created a good buying opportunity. Spellskite wasn’t a bad buy because if it hits $15 in a few months you’re looking at $4-5 profit a copy.

My instinct is that whoever bought out Obliterator thought they were going to get the next Splinter Twin. And they were wrong, which leads me to the point of this entire article.

Buying a hyped card is almost always wrong.

Concerning Obliterator, rarely have I ever seen this amount of speculative demand created by perceived demand at work (maybe Nivmagus Elemental). The time to buy Obliterator was at $15 based on the results we currently have. (Certainly if you’re convinced it’s the next big thing buy it up, though you better have a good reason why it should cost more than Karn).

But I’m not just talking about Obliterator. Buying into Splinter Twin at $9-10 as it was spiking didn’t work out. Neither did buying into Spellskite at $8, though it may turn out okay down the line.

When you buy a card, you’re counting on someone else to buy it from you. Buying a $7 card to sell at $10 isn’t making you money. And by the time the card has reached the masses, this is usually all you’re doing. It’s why the person who bought out Obliterator didn’t make money, and it’s the reason everyone who jumped to Spellskite not wanting to miss the next Twin is still left holding their copies as well.

This is why we work so hard to stay ahead of the market here. Every single one of these three cards has been pegged as a target for weeks or months, including when New Phyrexia rotated out in the first place. That’s when you get your copies, not now.

Quick flips can work, but they’re also more risky if you’re not at the front of the line. To jump in at the middle part of the process is just chasing your own tail. You’re assuming more risk for less reward, and that’s not how you make money long-term in this business.

I talked about a few of the cards I’m eying for next Modern season, so that when the spikes on these happen (if they do), I won’t be scrambling to buy in and make a few dollars a copy. Instead, I’ll be outing my copies at the peak of the spike. That requires hard work, in staying ahead of the market and acquiring copies cheaply. Most importantly, it requires patience.

That’s why I’ve advocated picking up next season’s Modern cards now, and not two weeks before PTQ season when the general player base is after them.

Look, I get that it’s not sexy to pick up stuff like Avacyn, Angel of Hope and Griselbrand right after they rotate when you can be chasing the quick double-up instead. But today’s easy pick-ups that you tell yourself you have plenty of time to acquire become tomorrow’s “overnight” spike. Just like Splinter Twin and Spellskite and Birthing Pod and Sol Ring and Rafiq of the Many and Restoration Angel and Wurmcoil Engine.

So what do you say we focus on staying ahead of the pack, rather than trying to catch up to it?

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter