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This is a conversation brought on by an interesting Reddit post (which you can find here), so I decided I may as well share one of my most embarrassing misses.
The highlight of that thread, for me, is Brian Kibler being completely honest about his biggest miss: Daybreak Ranger. I remember when that happened and Ranger was supposed to be the next big thing, but it never really took off.
It was the same with my biggest miss: Splinterfright.
I thought this would be a thing. I got 94 of them at under 50 cents, and I thought with Dark Ascension the archetype could really take off. And, to be honest, it nearly did. There just never came the right metagame for it, even after more support cards came.
The investment definitely didn't work out, but it's not keeping me up at night either. I didn't lose much on these, and had it worked out it would have paid off really well. But hey, live and learn, right?
Anyway, that's my story. What was your biggest miss, either speculative or just in theory? What did you think would become a force but never quite did?
The card I was most wrong about was probably Rakdos’ Return. I thought it had a real good chance to be a format defining card and it just quite hasn’t lived up to the hype I thought it might have. I had a few playsets but got off them around Dragon’s Maze release.
Yeah, it’s a card that’s been really good but not quite as powerful as it could be. I think it’s just a metagame product, where the Jund decks it needed to be in didn’t really exist in the form it would excel in.
I have like 700 copies of Seance. Nice 94 copies, you filthy casual
Fair.
I thought Aqueous Form was a terrible limited card. It’s not.
I thought Rage of Purphoros was a great card. In some formats it would be – but not in Theros.
I thought Nightveil Specter would never amount to anything. I was wrong, but for the right reasons.
I thought shocklands would double upon rotation. I don’t think anyone foresaw the dominance of mono-colored strategies.
I thought Tibalt MUST be secretly good. To be fair, it’s hard to improve him in a way that both keeps the design goal (make a 2cc planeswalker) and isn’t busted to hell and back (for example, making his discard nonrandom is insane).
Pre-ordered Kozileks at $20 each, took my losses and traded them in at €5*, look at their $45+ retail price now…
* Fortunately it was a great deal that’s only gotten better as the old card I got keeps rising, but holding them would’ve been much better.
splinterfright for sure. tribal flame for modern. greater goods after the US price bump. never happened in EU.
almost 100 deathrite shamans :))
still thinking it will pan out…
Yeah, I think that one will be okay.
Around 350 Mana Blooms!
When Laboratory Maniac was spoiled, I purchased 25 Diving Witches, 15 Paradigm Shifts, and 7 Thought Lashes. Needless to say, this did not work out.
32 Skaab Ruinator’s @ $2.50 because all the pro’s thought it was so good (when it was spoiled) and I thought all their reasons were still true, so maybe it’d get broken…