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We don't have a full set yet, but a significant portion of Magic 2015 has been spoiled and it's time to start thinking about the future. I'm not one to pay much mind to pre-rotation Standard when the new Core Set drops, and, before a single card from Khans of Tarkir is spoiled, it's hard to say how post-rotation Standard is going to look. But that doesn't mean that we don't know anything.
A Notable Omission
With Supreme Verdict leaving Standard (finally), a lot of players are wondering if and when another Wrath of God will be entering the format. The inclusion of Mass Calcify in M15 strongly suggests that Khans of Tarkir will be the earliest we can expect another four-mana white sweeper.
Whether Khans will contain said sweeper is an interesting question though. With Devotion being the marquee mechanic of Theros block, Wrath of God runs completely counter to most of what Theros block cards attempt to accomplish.
Devotion strategies currently see play despite Supreme Verdict, largely because of the color-intensive permanents from Return to Ravnica block. Theros really doesn't have much in the way of quality Devotion enablers--you might have noticed that Devotion didn't exactly dominate the Block Pro Tour.
Perhaps Devotion just won't be a player going forward. Anger of the Gods and Drown in Sorrow will certainly try to keep it down. I'm not fully convinced that Devotion won't be pushed a little more come Khans, though, and the absence of Day of Judgment would certainly be a way to support such permanent-based strategies.
Planeswalkers
Chandra was in M14, so nothing new or exciting there, and we all have a good idea of how powerful the original Liliana is. Two of the remaining three, however, have my attention.
To make things easy, I feel like this Jace is just garbage. It can't protect itself without pushing way outside of ultimate range, and graveyards won't matter pre-Khans, which makes its +1 presently useless. Even if graveyards did matter, I think it would take a considerably powerful graveyard mechanic to want a card that puts cards in the graveyard with very little selection. Threshold comes to mind, but until I see something to push him, I don't expect to see this Jace at the competitive tables.
Ajani and Nissa, however, are sweet.
Ajani V is a huge upgrade for aggressive white decks. While Ajani, Caller of Pride is excellent both in terms of efficiency and raw damage output when paired with large creatures, Ajani Steadfast plays much better with multiple bodies. Outside of only adding one Devotion, which I don't see as a significant drawback in that particular color, this Ajani seems like an upgrade for white aggressive decks over the previously existing mono-white Ajanis.
Nissa is a far cry from the most exciting Planeswalker we've seen--even at five mana--but I like the idea of Green Devotion with her and Eidolon of Blossoms. Nissa's ability to only untap Forests will likely relegate her to mono-green or green-heavy decks anyhow, so you may as well go deep. The inability to untap Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx was probably intentional, but we have access to other means of doing so.
The Soul Cycle
Jason Alt has highlighted the various monsters in the six-card soul-cycle here at QuietSpeculation, and I don't think that there's a ton more to say about about them until we've seen them in action. Basically, if you want to play six mana things, I think you have to compare them face to face with Elspeth, Sun's champion. I don't think any compare favorably.
In a devotion shell, I could see Nykthos enabling some strong shenanigans. For this reason, I think it's no coincidence that the green soul has by far the weakest ability. Soul of New Phyrexia has an ability that I wouldn't be unhappy to have access to in a green deck, so that's something to keep in mind.
Other Notables
Hushwing Gryff
This card is probably overrated, but it's still very good. David Schumann did a great job discussing the card's eternal applications, but I think that it's worth talking about in Standard. If Devotion is going to be good, then this guy does some serious work.
To that end, creatures with ETB triggers just tend to be good, so hosing them really can't be bad. A flash threat in a deck with Spear of Heliod and Ajani Steadfast can also really mess up combat math. Three mana is a lot for an aggressive deck, so it's possible that he won't show up as more than a two-of in Standard, but I at least expect it to show up in that capacity.
Chief Engineer
I am willing to entertain the possibility that this card will lead to a new flavor of Modern deck, and the odds point to Chief Engineer seeing some competitive play.
He's definitely worse than Etherium Sculptor in traditional Eggs deck, but what about something that plays both of these creatures in addition to Grand Architect? Clearly this deck would need a way to draw extra cards. Thoughtcast is a shoe-in. Maybe something with Krark-Clan Ironworks and Ichor Wellspring? I like the idea of an Ironworks combo deck with access to a beatdown plan to combat Stony Silence.
I'm probably not the guy to break it, but it sure looks breakable.
Sign in Blood
It's a reprint and it's a common, but this card really changes Standard.
Black is retaining two two-power one drops going into Khans in Tormented Hero and Gnarled Scarhide. Herald of Torment and Master of Feasts are no slouches either. Sign in Blood works perfectly in aggressive black decks as a way to reload or just as a form of reach.
Sign in Blood also does its job in slower, more controlling decks--particularly those planning to gain the life they paid back with Grey Merchant of Asphodel. This card is quite strong and it's no secret.
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
Speaking of black decks, I see the Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth reprint as being surprisingly relevant. If Mana Confluence and painlands are what we're going to have for manafixing, then two color black decks with access to Urborg will be able to take less damage to their equally consistent manabases. It's also really good with Nykthos, though with Nightveil Specter rotating, it remains to be seen how relevant it will be.
Inferno Fist
Whether you're a red heroic deck, à la Boss Sligh, or Prophetic Flamespeaker gets its shot in the limelight, Ingerno Fist will almost assuredly show up in Standard.
Inferno Fist 1R
Enchantment - Aura
Enchant creature you control.
Enchanted creature gets +2/+0.
R, Sacrifice Inferno Fist: Inferno Fist deals 2 damage to target creature or player.
This card will often be worth four damage. Sometimes it'll just be another bad aura, and sometimes it will go on an uncontested Satyr Hoplite and go to town. The upside is easily worth the risk.
Stoke the Flames
Speaking of cards that are worth four damage, this one is awesome.
Stoke the Flames 2RR
Instant
Convoke
Stoke the Flames deals 4 damage to target creature or player.
If you ever find your Eidolon of the Great Revels and Prophetic Flamespeakers in a board stall, this is a hella efficient trick to leave up during your opponent's turn.
At RRR I could have seen it being played in Modern or even Legacy, but as it is, I believe it will be confined to Standard, where it would probably just be way too good at RRR.
Sunblade Elf
Losing Temple Garden is going to make this card pretty sad, but in a white enough Selesnya deck, this is an Isamaru with a Glorious Anthem to supplement Ajani and Spear of Heliod.
If any of the new "Kird Apes" see constructed play, it will be this one. The downside of being a one drop for G in a Plains-heavy deck is likely greater than the upside, but I expect to lose to this card at least once in Standard.
Enemy Painlands
And lastly, we have the most impactful cards on post-RtR Standard.
With scrylands, Mana Confluence and enemy painlands being the manafixing available, I would imagine that aggressive decks will be able to walk all over slower decks that don't curve out perfectly on Sylvan Caryatid into Courser of Kruphix.
We do know that Khans will be bringing a new sort of dual land in addition to what we have, and it's entirely possible that they benefit controlling decks more than aggressive decks, but until I know for sure, I'm inclined to believe that attacking is going to be very good in the immediate future of Standard.
~
Do you evaluate the Souls differently? Are you excited about something that I didn't highlight? Do you think Jace is actually playable? Let me know in the comments!
Thanks for reading.
-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter
I forgot about Sign in Blood. That is spicy for mono-B aggro, gives it some reach in case of a board stall.
Genesis Hydra might see play in monogreen devotion. WW could become a thing again for a few months with the following cards along with the existing soldiers we already have in Standard:
Raise the Alarm
Preeminent Captain
Obelisk of Urd
Obelisk of Urd could of course see play in other aggro decks as well.
Reclamation Sage, Phyrexian Revoker, and Stain the Mind will probably see some SB play here and there.
Agree with the rest of your assessments except for Inferno Fist as I don’t think it will see play. I think stuff like Dragon Mantle, Titan’s Strength, Thunderous Might, and to a lesser extent Mogis’s Warhound, Nyxborn Rollicker, and Ordeal of Purphoros will probably see play over it, though I do like the ability to toss it away for 2 to the face when the creature it’s on is no longer relevant.
Of those, I actually expect Mogis Warhound to see the most play, but it’s a good point that there are a lot of other options for Inferno Fists, and they all have their own merit.
Reclamation Sage wasn’t spoiled when I wrote this, and will likely be very good as long as Courser of Kruphix is, and I could definitely see Revoker seeing play, too.
If there is no strong Wrath effect, is there a chance Fated Retribution becomes playable? I bought a few for cheap not long ago hoping this will be the case. I recognize odds are low, but it was worth a shot. I made nice money on Supreme Verdict and Terminus before that because wrath effects tend to go up in price as they age in Standard.
That’s going to depend on whether or not the midrange Planeswalker decks trump the aggressive decks. In Theros-Khans Standard looks anything like Theros Block Constructed, then I fully expect Fated Retribution to see some amount of play- limited obviously the by the steep casting cost.
I may be wrong about this (I often am). I like Jace. Not just a little. I like Jace a lot. I think it provides great deck thinning and could lead to some awesome draws. I understand that he doesn’t protect himself. He should be played in a control shell anyways. Optimizing your draws just screams awesome to me. I could see him getting you just the right cards at the right times.
Losing Supreme Verdict is a major blow, but I think he will find a home regardless. If your opponent lets him live too long, he will blow the game out. Control loves when you get a full hand against an empty one, thus his ultimate will be very real. I will reiterate how much I love his plus ability. Drawing what you need and discarding the chafe is great.
Again, I have been very wrong about many cards in the past. But I just have a gut feeling that Jace will pull major weight in game play.
As I said, I think it comes down to Khans having a powerful graveyard mechanic for Jace to be good. Four is a lot of mana to invest in fixing draws. It’s not like Crystal Ball saw play. The ultimate is obviously very good, but it’s been said many times- planeswalkers are not to be judged by their ultimates.
Good article.