Grand Prix Boston is this weekend, and Modern is the name of the game. We are in the midst of a Modern Pro Tour Qualifier season, so this Grand Prix will act as midseason checkup for the health of the format.

Grand Prix Richmond was held just after the Modern Pro Tour Born of the Gods, and I expect the majority of the field simply copied decks from that event without extensive thought or practice. Grand Prix Minneapolis was in the middle of Standard season, and I suspect most participants hadn't been playing much Modern leading up to it.

The Grand Prix this weekend comes at a time of the season when the grinding competitive player is fully immersed in the Modern format. Players who have piloted a deck through the season will bring it to the Grand Prix, while many will copy decklists from PTQs, meaning PTQ results should paint a pretty accurate picture of what the Grand Prix metagame will look like.

I have been studying all the Modern results I can get my hands on, and some things are apparent:

Decks You Will Play Against

Birthing Pod

If any deck defines Modern, this is it. Since it actually comes in a variety of forms, a more correct statement would be: "If any card defines Modern, Birthing Pod defines Modern."

Birthing Pod sees the most play in BGW, either with the Melira, Sylvok Outcast-Persist creature combo, or the version that eschews it to play more maindeck disruption along with the Archangel of Thune-Spike Feeder combo. There is also a RGWU version of Birthing Pod that uses the Restoration Angel-Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker combo.

Regardless of the version, Birthing Pod decks seek to accelerate mana in the early game, land its namesake card and create an unbeatable value-engine. With immense tutoring capabilities, the deck can find specific answers to problems or assemble a combo. Beyond this, the deck seeks to win through aggression, with the BGW versions including Gavony Township.

Fighting against Birthing Pod can be done in a variety of ways. The primary way is with creature removal, ideally turning off mana acceleration to slow the deck down. Cards like Path to Exile and Pillar of Flame are particularly useful because they turn off Persist creatures and Voice of Resurgence. Creature removal can also be used to disrupt Birthing Pod chains or stop a combo.

Another way to attack the archetype is with hate cards, such as graveyard removal for stopping some value and the Persist combo, or with Stony Silence to stop the namesake card. Torpor Orb can be used to stop many triggers. One of the most effective dedicated hate card is Grafdigger's Cage, which stops Birthing Pod, Chord of Calling and even Persist creatures.

Keep in mind that the deck will often bring in its own disruption (and anti-hate) if it isn't maindeck, the key cards being Abrupt Decay and Thoughtseize.

Affinity

Affinity is the go-to aggressive deck of the format, and it's capable of blisteringly fast starts. It is very combo-like in nature, in that it plays many enabling cog-type cards with powerful flagships, Cranial Plating and Arcbound Ravager, that take advantage of the pieces.

The deck also has a combo-kill by pairing a flagship card with Inkmoth Nexus. Etched Champion is nearly impossible to kill and leads to a lot of free wins. Affinity has the tools to race combo decks and out-pressure and exhaust the midrange decks. It remains one of the most popular and successful decks in the metagame, and it's always a popular choice in PTQ and GP.

The best way to attack Affinity is disrupt them at all stages. Nothing is better than dedicated artifact hate, the best options being Stony Silence, Ancient Grudge, Kataki, War's Rage and Creeping Corrosion.

Moving beyond artifact hate, creature removal is excellent, especially cheap removal that can hit more than one creature, like Pyroclasm and Electrolyze. Other disruption, like discard and cheap counterspells, are also surprisingly strong against Affinity. Without any real card advantage or late-game tools, the longer the game goes, the less likely Affinity is to win, so take on the control role.

Keep in mind that Affinity has a sideboard dedicated to various forms of disruption. They will always have answers to opposing hate cards, so it's advised not to completely rely on any one card.

Splinter Twin Combo

This deck is based around Splinter Twin or Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker and a creature that will untap another to create an infinite loop of infinite hasted creatures, either Pestermite or Deceiver Exarch. Supplementing this plan is a bunch of card selection to find the combo along with disruption in the form of creature removal and counterspells. The deck often cuts down on the combo and takes on the control role post-sideboard, while some versions even maindeck Tarmogoyf in order to better fight fair and play more of a tempo game.

Attacking the deck should be done with discard, removal and counterspells. Something like a single held-back Abrupt Decay can make it impossible for them to combo, which is why many will cut down on combo pieces after sideboard. Dedicated hate includes Torpor Orb and Spellskite.

It's important to be prepared for the combo, but also to be able to grind out a control deck, which makes this archetype difficult to sideboard against and makes it one of the best decks around.

BG Rock/Jund

These decks play a core of incredibly efficient creatures, including Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant and Scavenging Ooze, along with the best disruption in Thoughtseize, Abrupt Decay and Liliana of the Veil.

A classic rock deck, it wins by applying pressure and removal, sometimes racing the opponent, but often just grinding them down to nothing. This is one of the most simple and straightforward decks in Modern, but it's one of the best and has been a strong performer through the PTQ season. The red version, Jund, simply stretches the mana for more powerful red cards, which makes it stronger against creature opponents. Some also splash white for more answers to Affinity, Tron and combo decks. I'd expect BG to be the most popular at the GP, with some flavor mixed in.

Sideboarding against this strategy is different compared to most Modern matchups. The deck has no single weakness or necessary card, and it has plenty of answers to anything the opponent can muster. The best way to fight this deck is to simply buff up the maindeck and cut down the chaff. I would focus on grinding and fighting an attrition war, so I'd cut cards that are weak there and overload on value and power. Popular cards for this matchup include Batterskull and Threads of Disloyalty, both of which must be answered or may steal a game outright.

Middle of the Road

UWR Control

UWR has access to some of the best cards in Modern, and they combine to create a strong package. This deck comes in two main variations, a dedicated control deck and a combo deck. Both decks play most of the same tools, with the control versions playing more disruption and value and the combo versions more creatures as combo pieces. Both decks are strong, and both have been represented throughout PTQ and GP top 8s.

I would be prepared to play against the UWR strategy this weekend, though it won't be as popular as the other decks. Specific hate cards to punish this deck include Choke and Boil. Thrun, the Last Troll is very hard for the control version to beat, while I'd attack the combo version with creature removal.

Scapeshift

It would be foolish to forget about Scapeshift, the one-card combo deck. This deck operates as a mana-ramp control deck in the early game before it hits 7+ lands and searches up Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle and a bunch of Mountain with its namesake card. This deck is best fought with disruption, particularly discard and land destruction. Counterspells are also fine, but the opponent is capable of fighting and winning a counter war.

Tron

Urzatron decks have seemed to fall from flavor, but it's still one of the most powerful decks in Modern and is capable of easily going over the top of the fair decks. It seems to always be popular in paper events, and it's something I would not simply ignore this weekend. Land destruction is at its best here, while discard and counterspells are also quite good.

Decks You Won't See Across the Table

Amulet of Vigor Combo

This deck got a lot of hype at PT BNG, but it was all but nonexistent at GP Richmond. It didn't put up strong results at GP Minneapolis either, and while I have seen it top 8 a PTQ, it's not a consistent performer. I would not dedicate any slots to this matchup, but rather try to fight it with existing tools, namely resource denial, including Abrupt Decay, land destruction, discard and counterspells.

Ad Nauseam Combo

This deck has been a bit more successful than Amulet Combo, including a 9th place finish at PT BNG, but in the time since, it has not been a consistent performer nor put up any notable finishes. This is a fringe combo deck, and it requires no special preparation. I'd attack it the same way as I attack other combo decks by loading on resource denial. Lifegain is also a reasonable way to attack this deck, though some versions use cards like Laboratory Manic or even Death's Shadow.

Possibility Storm Combo

This deck is about as fringe as it gets right now. It may be a strong deck, but it's certainly not popular enough to require special attention. I would attack it just like any other combo deck, but keep in mind the opponent does a fine job of playing as a control deck. I first saw the deck get 2nd in a Japanese PTQ. I wrote about the deck over at Tcgplayer two weeks ago, and since that time another list made top 8 of another Japanese PTQ. It's worth exploring, so check it out:

Good luck this weekend! I'll answer any questions in the comments.

-Adam

For reference:
WotC Modern PTQ Decklists

Japanese PTQ Decklists