"Hindsight Is Always 20/20"

I've always looked at this statement and wondered when/how it came into being. Yes. Looking back on where you are at from where you have come is always a much clearer venture. You need to do it often because you need to be able to measure your goals and see how far you've come.

For me, this Modern season was supposed to be a lot of work leading into a culmination about mid-season where I would "sell into the hype." The hype is there but an interesting thing has happened. The market decided it wanted to pull out it's best Bear impersonation.

No, I'm not talking about Fozzie Bear. There's no picnic baskets or a side-kick named Boo-Boo. The market decided to not spend money and start hoarding like it was winter. The hibernation analogy is just reflective of "saving for a rainy day" and as I've mentioned a few times, it seems like someone is holding their breath.

Is it just me that feels that way?

What are we waiting for. The popularity, desire, and availability of cards are there. People should be buying left and right. Tournament turnouts have been phenomenal. The Modern season itself would be considered by most a huge success, attendance-wise. So why are prices heading in the opposite direction? I'm wondering if there are not more factors involved that have lead to this current state of Modern.

The Red-Headed Step Child nickname is still in the back of everyone's mind. You go to your local shops, and there is still trouble in launching events. Just getting eight people to come out to launch a Thursday night tournament is proving to be hard for most average stores. There's just not enough people coming out to their LGS in order to play. The age-old stigma about a format being only desirable because we have to play it still applies, it would seem. It would seem that no one just wants to take it seriously.

A little part of me is absolutely saddened by this.

Hopefully though, stores will continue to have confidence in these events. It still proves that there is a fundamental need for business fundamentals. One of those being if you bring people out for an event, then fire that event off. 4, 12, or 40 people. It doesn't matter. For those shop owners out there, I can't stress how important this is. But that's another topic for another day.

Today, we're looking back on some of my calls from earlier in the lead-up to the season. Let's see where we stand on some of these cards:

Voice of Resurgence

Voice of Resurgence was a target I was expecting more long-term than short-term from. The main crux for this card was that the most popular deck that played it is still Melira Pod and Kiki Pod. Two decks that are very difficult to pilot. While this is the most powerful deck in the format, it just takes a very skilled pilot to get the desired results.

Frustration to most players is the bitterest poison you will ever see. Yet, people will still pick up this deck, bite into it, and expect wonderful things to happen. It's just not that easy. Long-term this is still a hot target for me. Short-term rotation plus high learning curve is forcing me to adjust my forecast for this card.

Original Price: $25. Current Price: $20
Original Expected EOS Forecast: $35 +- Current EOS Forecast: $15.

Snapcaster Mage

Snapcaster Mage has proven he still wants to be a format defining all-star. Spotlighted in more Tier 1 strategies than any other card, Snapcaster Mage just hasn't lived up to the price expectations set by an anticipatory crowd. This may be the first victim of the speculation craze that has selectively picked up steam here and there. Most people were feeling that Snapcaster was a bonafide hit. I would say that expectation has not changed. A solid hold, even if prices have dipped a little.

Original Price: $32. Current Price: $30
Original Expected EOS Forecast: $45-50 Current EOS Forecast: $35-$40.

Scapeshift

Scapeshift has proven a role player here to stay. Jund variants have also proven that they are format pieces, but not in enough amounts to really rain on Scapeshift's parade. The move of Jund to more B/G builds will continue to keep this deck in check, even though the alternate plans are solid. Also, continued adoption of Blood Moon will keep this as simply a role player strictly dependent on metagame. I am back to considering this deck almost a glass cannon if you will.

Original Price: $18. Current Price: $18
Original Expected EOS Forecast: $35-45 Current EOS Forecast: $22

Tarmogoyf

Tarmogoyf foil prices have continued to rise while Tarmogoyf himself has plateaued at this moment. What this tells me is that the potential for a price increase is still very much looming.

Let's face it--Tarmogoyf is a known quantity. It's a card that's very hard to get people to come off of and that people are always looking for. The path blazers of the pricing community are still feeling this is a card they can set the market for. It's all going to depend on how many copies stores are stuck with. The demand is there to realize serious profits on any preseason purchases.

Original Price: $189. Current Price: $190
Original Expected EOS Forecast: $260-275 Current EOS Forecast: $235-250

Birthing Pod

Birthing Pod has been the biggest victim of them all. Once it got out that the deck is actually hard to pilot the demand started to slip back to pre-hype levels. The deck is just hard, with so many lines of play, and so many decisions to make. It's hard to continually push players to a deck that is inherently powerful, but makes their brain cringe just thinking about it.

It still will be a deck for those that love the challenge, but a metagame this big will most likely shift. People want to have fun with this type of format. They do want to win, but enjoying themselves is just as important.

Original Price: $13. Current Price: $10
Original Expected EOS Forecast: $30-40 Current EOS Forecast: $18-20.

In hindsight, my expectations were a little lofty. Cyclical patterns in the markets in the past have shown that my expectations, while high, were easily attainable. It just didn't pan out that way in the two months since.

The season is not over yet, but like all good measuring sticks they're only good when you use them. You must look at the progress you've made, see if the time is right to strike, reassess and change if necessary, while still trudging on.

What experience have you had so far with Modern? Share it in the comments. Let us know where you've over-expected and where you've nailed it on the head. This year's market has certainly proven to be an interesting one.

-Till Next Time