Last week there were definitely some growing pains in the switch to the new client. That said, they made some big improvements in the newest build. The increased stability is key, and a number of the User Interface (UI) tweaks are improvements.

Despite the many complaints on social media, the sky has not fallen, and there has been no collapse in card prices like many people had predicted. In fact, we saw this:

Prices have actually gone up on all three major indices: Standard, Legacy, and Modern Index. What's going on here?

Perhaps an analogy from the finance world might shed some light. Earlier this month Citibank agreed to settle an investigation by the U.S. government into the bank’s sale of toxic mortgage-backed securities six years ago. The settlement price? A staggering $7 billion, which essentially wiped out the bank's profits from this year. Yet in response, Citibank stock shot up 4% the next day.

First, the market was relieved that the settlement wasn't even larger. But more than that, the market was rewarding certainty. The prospect of the settlement had been looming for so long that that risk was built into the stock price; once a clear settlement cost emerged, investors felt comfortable buying back in and the stock rose.

The v4 transition has not been an easy one, but it could have been much worse. For months, a lot of players and speculators sat on the sidelines and did not commit their capital because they were concerned about a fiasco akin to the v2 to v3 transition, which led to drops of 20% or more across the board. I was personally quite cautious to commit--the downside seemed much lower than the possible upside.

So far, things have been stable. But that's not to say we're entirely in the clear. This last week was a nightmare for many botters, and the lights were out at a number of major chains as they scrambled to update their software. Casey Stewart of TheCardNexus noted on Twitter that there are "680 classifieds post right now... compared to 2500 normally." That means that a ton of bots were having difficulty making the transition (Scott Bianco has a good list here.)

What were the implications of these bot troubles? So far, not much. However, if these bot chains cannot resolve their software issues and get back online there will be a couple serious consequences: 1) less competition will mean wider spreads between buy and sell prices; and 2) if some of these foundering bots start selling off inventory it could flood the market with additional cards and lower prices across the board.

Moreover, MTGO Traders mentioned in a series of tweets on Wednesday that "lots of people [are] selling collections and tickets" and predicted that "with the amount of people quitting prices will drop," though "prices will recover and it won't be anything like V3 launch."

Keep an eye on M15 release as a danger zone. The M15 release will be a good test of how players enjoy the new client, how stable it is with large numbers of players, and how people will respond to a new client in the context of low liquidity. The demand for tickets could lead prices to slip, and if that is coupled with sell-offs we could see the MTGO equivalent of a “run on the banks”.

If people see the value of their collection declining, they could rush to sell off before things get worse, and trigger a recession in the MTGO economy. This is essentially what happened in the v3 switchover several years ago. Please note that I do not see this as a likely outcome, but it is an outside possibility that we should be prepared for.

I am waiting before investing heavily because I still have concerns. But it may well be safe to go back in the water.

Getting the Most Out of M15 Release Week

M15 launches online with the prerelease, July 25. In general, release events are a great time to load up on singles you need, since the “tix only” entry of the on-demand sealed events will lead people to sell the cards they open and suppress prices across the board. The rest of this article will talk about a couple specific opportunities available during the M15 release.

Prospects for Rotating Cards

Pro Tour Magic 2015 (Aug 1-3) will be the first showcase for M15 Limited and the new summer Standard. The Pro Tour is a swan song for rotating cards, and RTR block all-stars like Sphinx's Revelation and Pack Rat will take the stage one final time before fading into oblivion (or, for the lucky few, into Modern.) There might be one last mini-bump on these prices during the Pro Tour, since Standard will have the spotlight and people will buy cards (and intriguing decks) that appear on coverage.

But right after we should see a continued slide into irrelevance for our old stalwarts. By now you should have sold M14 or RTR cards you don’t urgently need, but if you missed the window you may get a final shot to sell during the Pro Tour (you can pick up your Modern/Legacy playsets in the bargain bin this fall.)

After the Pro Tour we enter a good window for picking up rotating cards. In principle these should be lowest after Khans of Tarkir, but redeemers and speculators often start buying in late summer. Sylvain’s article provides some good ideas for targets, which include Abrupt Decay, shock lands, and Deathrite Shaman. Just make sure you don’t buy in too early.

M15 Cards

During the first few hours of prerelease events, M15 cards will be in high demand. Players will want them for their decks and bots will want them for their inventory. Within 24 hours or less the demand will be sated, and most cards will have dropped to half or their release price, or less. Rares without clear Constructed applications will be hit hardest and will be worth pennies. Sell anything that hits your binder until these cards hit the floor.

This crop of M15 mythics is hard to evaluate (see Sylvain’s article here), which means they are likely to stay out of “bulk mythic” range. If there is a breakthrough mythic it could easily spike from a few tix to 20 or more (this is what happened with Sphinx's Revelation, Geist of Saint Traft, and a few other breakout all-stars.) Don’t overextend. The general price pressure will be downward until about 8-10 days in, and you will be “swimming upstream,” as I discuss in my last article.

During release events there will be a lot of M15 entering the market. One to two weeks after the release starts will be a great window to load up on a basket of cheap rares and mythics.

You can take the Sylvain approach of buying an “index” of the set with the understanding that everything is underpriced. Or you can be more selective and try to pick winners. Either way, the set has basically nowhere to go but up, and the index will be 20% lower than it will be in a few months. So it’s pretty safe to buy a cross section of cards. This is a good example of “swimming downstream”.

M15 Wildcards

There are two wildcards surrounding this release that make it different from the past.

The first wildcard is the new client. If it is poorly received by players this could actually benefit the long-term value of M15 cards since there will be less drafting than expected. However I don’t expect volume to be down significantly since the client is pretty draft friendly. Indeed, because the deck building and trading functions can be rough around the edges this may push MTGO players even further away from Constructed and toward draft.

The second wildcard is the free prerelease voucher that was provided to all accounts. I expect the volume of people who play this prerelease higher than ever. I also expect to see a lot of "zombie" accounts—i.e. people who enter queues for free just to get the cards, and then drop. This will lead to unpleasant play experiences. It will also mean that M15 prices drop much faster than under usual circumstances.

Notice how I didn't talk about any specific M15 cards? As discussed last week, one of the most common mistakes is to try to "pick winners" among the newly released set. Unless you have an inside track, it's best to wait for a week or two before making any M15 purchases.

Eternal Cards

During release events almost everything goes “on sale”. Keep an eye on prices, since this is a great time to pick up those playsets of older cards you’ve been holding out for.

The discount won’t be huge—usually between 5 to 10%--and will be proportional to how much a format is on people’s minds. Right now, for example, Modern and Pauper are not occupying a lot of our mind space so the index for these cards could experience a deeper discount than Vintage/Legacy/Standard.

Because each account will be gifted a free prerelease voucher, fewer tickets will leave the system than in a traditional prerelease. So I expect this effect to be muted somewhat.

Booster Plays

What about Boosters? Once the Sealed Release Events start firing, booster prices will crash—there is just too much product entering the system and demand for tickets is too high. (Traditionally the highest EV events are the Sealed Release queues which only take event tickets.) M15 boosters should quickly fall to 2.9-3.0 tix.

That said, there may be a brief window in which M15 boosters will rise. As Matt Lewis puts it:

I think there will be an opportunity on boosters on the Saturday and Sunday when prereleases open. Boosters will not be in demand as players need tix to enter these events. But boosters are awarded as prizes. This puts downward pressure on the price of boosters. Once release events open on the Monday, draft queues start up, priming demand. But boosters won't be awarded in DEs and such until the Wednesday. So, there's a quick flip on these 'a brewing. If you can buy for 3.5 or less on the weekend, they should jump to around 4 tix on Monday/Tuesday.

Note, this trade is something I explored last year with the THS prerelease. I made the call on Twitter, and it worked out. I think they key part is that the draft format needs to be a TTT or M15M15M15, i.e. drafts are using three of the same set. This means that drafters put a lot of demand on the supply of boosters. It won't work as well for a second or third set booster, so it's not worthwhile in those cases.

Keep an eye on this dynamic. It’s no slam dunk because of the wildcards discussed above, but it seems a reasonably safe way to earn yourself a free draft or two.

They have been doing a great job with Core Set Limited in recent years. Enjoy the new set, and don't worry too much about EV if you are having a good time.

-Alexander Carl (@thoughtlaced)