Introducing Standard Format Rotation

Every year the Standard format rotates, meaning the old makes way for the new.

Every block has a two-year lifespan in Standard: each large fall set release pushes out the fall release from two years prior, and along with it goes the the expansion sets from the same block. In terms of this current Standard format, on September 26th Khans of Tarkir will push out Return to Ravnica from the fall of 2012 and its expansions, Gatecrash and Dragon's Maze. The fall release also pushes out the core set release from a full year prior, which this year means Magic 2014 will rotate out and leave Magic 2015 as the sole core set in Standard.

The regularity and consistency of Standard format changes over the years has made the rotation process relatively predictable.

Compared to expansion releases, which serve to slightly adjust a format, perhaps evolving an archetype with new cards or enabling a new predator deck, fall format rotations are traumatic events that sever away the majority of a format and introduce the remaining cards to something brand new entirely. Think of a planet being hit by a huge asteroid, with half the planet and its species sheared off into the great void of space, while the survivors remaining on the planet are left to contend with lifeforms hitching a ride on the asteroid looking for a new habitat.

Preparation for Rotation

With prior knowledge of its occurrence, the transition to the post-rotation Standard format need not be anything but smooth. Some planning and preparation now will pay off big later in the year.

It's clear precisely which cards are going to leave this fall. The new fall release makes up just one portion of the entire format. The 249 new cards in Khans of Tarkir (excluding the basic lands) are just one part of a format that includes four other sets for a total of around 1,000 legal, unique cards. With 75% of the future Standard format already known, it's possible to get a pretty good idea of what will occur this fall and, therefore, how to best prepare.

It's clear that the best way to figure out what's going to happen this fall is to look at what we already have--Theros block and Magic 2015. While cards are judged relative to the other cards in a format, and these cards must be compared to Khans of Tarkir, it's also true that efficient and powerful cards stand on their own and that anything from Theros or Magic 2015 currently being played is likely to be played this fall and next year.

In fact, if a card is currently being played in Standard and will still be legal after rotation, I would assume it will be played after rotation unless there is a hard requirement of synergies with cards that will no longer exist.

Here's a list of cards legal this fall that are currently being used in top-tier Standard main decks:

Around its set release, I wrote an article detailing what M15 cards would be important for sideboards going forward. Some of the discussion applies to current Standard, but I was sure to include anything I thought had value going forward after rotation.

It's also now known that Khans of Tarkir is going to be a multi-colored block focusing on three-color shards, so lots of gold cards and decks with three or more colors will be the new norm. That means mana fixing is going to be more important than and widespread than it has been over the past year. Here are the lands that will define the format:

The move towards multi-color certainly hurts devotion, which is currently the most dominant synergistic strategy in Standard. It's clear Mono Blue Devotion is going to be pushed from the format unless a new crop of quality devotion-enabling creatures are printed. The power cards of the archetype remain, but there is a distinct lack of quality blue creatures up the curve.

Some key pieces of Black Devotion remain, namely Thoughtseize, flexible removal in the form of Hero's Downfall and a top-end in Gray Merchant of Asphodel. Without Pack Rat, and missing all the three drops of Nightveil Specter, Lifebane Zombie and Underworld Connections, the deck has lost much of its power.

Perhaps Sign in Blood can make up for the loss of card advantage. If the deck does survive, it will likely have to reinvent itself as more aggressive deck, perhaps playing cards like Herald of Torment and Pain Seer.

Aggressive red decks seem to have a lot of tools, and, with just a little more help from the next set, it could be a competitive deck. It's a common theme for proactive and consistent aggressive red decks to be an early frontrunner in a freshly-rotated Standard format, and this year will be no exception.

With a lot of powerful cards and the best manafixing available, green looks to be an early front runner this fall. The core of Sylvan Caryatid and Courser of Kruphix will be the starting point for many deckbuilders this fall and will be among the most commonly played cards over the coming year. This core was also a major player in Theros block constructed.

Reviewing Block Constructed

We can also look at how legal cards work together in an attempt find what strong synergies and strategies exist without Return to Ravnica block and determine what strategies are likely to remain effective. The best place to turn for a hard and true look at this sort of environment is Theros Block Constructed, the entirety of which will be legal after rotation and will compose approximately just over half of the format's cardpool.

Theros block constructed, with all three sets legal, was played at the Pro Tour just a few months ago, which has defined the format moving forward. Since the Pro Tour, there has also been a Grand Prix and a lot of Magic Online events.

Currently, the top-tier metagame is defined by three-color green-based decks that support all of the most powerful cards available.

Some versions include BUG, which leans on blue planeswalkers Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver and Kiora, the Crashing Wave and is the most controlling of the options. BGW is a Rock deck split between threats up the curve and a disruption package highlighted by Thoughtseize. And RGW is essentially a Naya Monsters Superfriends planeswalker deck.

Aggressive Heroic decks pairing white with either blue or red have been successful, which may transition over to Standard and fill the aggressive niche. Closer to a Hexproof Aura's deck than white weenie or red aggro, this deck has the tools to create large threats and fight through things like green blockers

Here's a list of heavily played block cards that aren't part of the previous list and will likely be relevant over the coming year of Standard:

I wrote an article about the sideboards of Block Constructed decks and what they mean for Standard with a pure focus on after rotation, so be sure to check it out.

Looking Ahead

In the new world, being proactive is critical. Playing a true control deck is quite difficult because the world is so chaotic, and it's not necessarily clear what the opposition is or what actually needs to be controlled. Aggressive decks are positioned to exploit this fact and typically define the early weeks of a new Standard season.

As I previously mentioned, red is historically strong early in rotation and should still be this year, though the overall strength of green and its robust creatures may serve as a foil to the red decks. Aggressive options will extended far beyond the color red.

One of the biggest changes to the format will be the removal of Sphinx's Revelation and Supreme Verdict as the last bastions of the counter-control deck. And, after rotation, control will be decidedly more tapout and planeswalker-oriented and will seek to gain incremental board advantage.

Paying it Forward

Applying everything discussed today will make the Standard rotation a smooth process. There are seven weeks until Khans of Tarkir is released, which means there are seven weeks to start acquiring key Theros block and Magic 2015 cards. I expect many of these cards will start rising in price to match their rise in tournament utility as players start to realize how important they will be in Standard this fall and beyond.

Rotating cards are likely already at their price bottoms, but moving from these cards into cards more useful for next year may be worthwhile.

I'd like to hear your thoughts about future Standard, so please share any comments or questions in the comments!

-Adam