One of the best resources for the Magic financier is MTG Goldfish. I've discussed the site before and use its price history graphs frequently in my articles.

The Format Staples tool provides invaluable information about what's actually being played. Yes, it's based on MTGO data, and the paper metagame often differs, sometimes significantly. Despite potential metagame differences, though, the tool is a great way to get an idea of which cards are underpriced.

Hornet Queen Seems Like a Good Buy

I just want to get that out of the way now, because Hornet Queen looks fantastic to me. Before being reprinted in Magic 2015, the Commander printing of the card had climbed from $2 to a steady $4 in 2013, and then up to $5 in the last few months.

That was based purely on casual demand, but now we have the card in Standard. Depending on the sweepers available in Khans of Tarkir (Pyroclasm in particular would wreck this card's chance to see competitive play), this seems like a fine target for a green devotion deck to ramp up to.

But the sweet thing is this: even if the card never sees play in Standard, it's already established itself as a casual staple. Magic 2015 is not the most popular Limited format (Eric Froelich expressed major disdain for it in a recent ChannelFireball video), and will be quickly abandoned once Khans is released.

We've seen year after year that core set cards increase more sharply than cards from expert sets, and I don't think this one will be an exception. With no Standard play whatsoever, I expect this card to be at least $3 within six months, and back to its previous $5 price within a year or two. If it sees Standard play, it could go quite a bit higher.

Now I'm going to do something I have basically never done: recommend buying foils. I have expressed my disdain for foils before. I hate them. They warp, can get you disqualified from tournaments, and don't serve any real purpose. They're certainly nice to look at, but the downsides far outweigh the prettiness, so I almost always deal exclusively in non-foils.

Hornet Queen is a major exception right now, though. This is the only foil printing of the card, and copies can be found for less than $5 retail right now. That's a multiplier of five compared to the non-foil copies, which is probably about right for a card EDH players seem to love. But since I so strongly believe the base price of the card will increase, I don't see how buying foils at the same price of the pre-reprint non-foils can possibly go bad. I put my own money on this, buying nine foils in addition to several playsets of non-foils.

What Happened to Playable Bulk Rares?

I got sidetracked by Hornet Queen, but now let's get back to MTG Goldfish. If you take a look at the Standard staples list, you will see that, with a few exceptions, Standard is heavily powered by Return to Ravnica block cards right now.

Yes, Thoughtseize is a powerhouse, and the green duo of Sylvan Caryatid and Courser of Kruphix is everywhere, but black devotion is powered by RTR cards: Desecration Demon, Underworld Connections, Pack Rat, Nightveil Specter, etc. Several decks depend on the explosiveness of Burning-Tree Emissary, and we're losing Sphinx's Revelation (which, strangely, does not make the top 50 in MTGO Standard).

In general, it seems like the enablers for the current decks are rotating. We'll still have the gods and some support cards, but devotion decks in particular are going to take a huge hit. Of course, Khans of Tarkir will have something to say about Standard, but I'm wondering if the Theros block format is a better hint than normal about how next season's decks are going to start out.

A few years ago, you could buy things like Sever the Bloodline before rotation for legitimate bulk rare pricing—around 15 cents. Nowadays, I look at things that should be down around that level and find that the lowest TCGplayer listing is often $1 or more. For example, looking at MTG Goldfish's Block staples, there's a bunch of stuff that sees no current Standard play that you would expect to be very low: Hero of Iroas, Silence the Believers, Eidolon of Countless Battles, Fabled Hero, Pain Seer, and Firedrinker Satyr.

Any of these cards would be a fine pickup at a quarter, but with each being above $1, I'm not really interested. Do you think this is representative of an increase in casual Standard players or does it just show that more people are interested in speculating on powerful-but-homeless rares?

A few things do stand out, though. Polis Crusher is 26th on the list and is averaging 34 cents. It has made literally no impact on this year's Standard, but that doesn't mean it won't matter next year. Also hovering around 50 cents are Arbor Colossus and Reaper of the Wilds. These are fall set rares, so their ceiling is certainly limited, but if you like penny stocks, you could do worse. At the very least, getting these as throw-ins on trades seems advisable.

Outside of the bulk rare category, I'm wondering if Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx is worth picking up. Any land that produces multiple mana should not be ignored...

...and this card is currently at its all-time low price. With Theros block no longer being drafted, supply isn't going to get any higher. Nykthos has been a powerhouse in Standard and has seen its share of testing in Modern, though without any real tournament success to back it up. This seems like a price floor to me, or at least darn close, and I doubt this card will ever be this low again, even after it rotates. My only concern is that this is (once again) a fall-set rare. Give it some thought.

A Couple Modern Observations

I've been writing about Scavenging Ooze for quite a while, just waiting for the right time to buy in. I want to get copies below $5, but it's been hovering at $6 or $7 for quite a while now. The card is clearly proven in both Legacy and Modern, but it also sees some play in Standard. Perhaps this is worth waiting on until rotation. I just don't want to miss the price floor.

With morph returning in Khans of Tarkir, we may be looking at some cool reprints. What we will definitely get is powerful new creatures with the ability. Wizards would not bring back a mechanic without doing something flashy with it, so expect some cool stuff.

The thing to note about morph in Modern is how Restoration Angel plays with the mechanic. You play one on turn three, then pass your turn four. If they try to remove your morph, you protect it with Resto. If not, you still get to end-of-turn blink it and have two sweet creatures in play. Seems powerful.

Finally, is Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle really only a $2 card? I realize Scapeshift isn't a huge part of the metagame, and Valakut is usually not a four-of, but this card used to be banned in Modern and is a necessary part of an entire archetype. I don't see anything that's going to cause a spike in the near future, but this seems like the kind of thing to slowly acquire and stash away until people realize it should be more expensive.

That's All, Folks

That's all I've got for this week. Thanks for reading!