In my article at the beginning of August I set out a game plan for the next couple months. Today, I wanted to take a second to review where the various markets are heading and to see whether things are going according to plan. We'll also take a look at speculative opportunities going forward.

Standard

Standard prices have rebounded nicely over the past month, rising roughly 20% in that span:

Why are Standard prices up? Several factors are at work. First, Theros block singles have done nicely as people adopt new Standard cards and load up for post-rotation Standard. (More on Theros in a little while). Constructed payouts have switched to M15 packs, which are not worthless, and Standard is always the most popular constructed format. A standard Pro Tour in August didn't hurt.

Second, there was an overall slump in card prices in the run-up to the v3 shutdown. Players and speculators were wisely hedging their bets. When disaster did not materialize, it's natural that prices bounced back a bit.

Third, and more surprisingly, rotating cards from Return to Ravnica block and M14 have bounced back from their early summer floors. This is a function of interest in the Standard format and from redeemers moving in earlier than they have in years past.

This was a trend we first observed with Innistrad and M13 last year--these rotating cards had mid-summer rallies before beginning a steep decline in September and October.

Bottom line is that if you are still holding M14 and RTR block cards there is still an opportunity to unload them at reasonable prices. But the cliff is coming and in a few weeks it will be too late. Keep only what you are actively playing with.

Modern

Modern has been on a steady, if modest, growth path since mid-June:

Interestingly, the markets did not respond significantly to the early August announcement that there would be no Modern Pro Tour in 2015. In any case, Wizards changed its mind, and the Modern Pro Tour was restored (set for February 2015.)

In the past, large Modern paper tournaments drove interest in Modern on MTGO, and I expect February to be no different. Modern has been a seasonal format, but it is no longer clear when Modern season is. The November 2014 MOCS will also be Modern, so prices should creep up around then. But more dramatically, the February Pro Tour (Feb 6-8) now offers an anchor, and I would expect Modern staples to reach a new peak right around then.

There will be an excellent opportunity to buy discounted Modern staples from Return to Ravnica block and M14 after rotation this fall. I would also keep your eyes out for any Modern Masters flashback drafts, which sometimes come around set releases or the holidays. These have proven a great way to get cards at a discount, and they have always bounced back strong once drafting is over.

Legacy

We have seen real renaissance in Legacy interest online, driven by a lower barrier to entry. Legacy has seen excellent growth since the spring but this will not be captured in the Index below because so many Legacy cards dropped hard from being reprinted in Vintage Masters.

The fact that the format is still up, despite the fact that Force of Will, Lion's Eye Diamond, and all the dual lands were reprinted, is a testament to its popularity. If you were to look at a basket of Legacy staples that were not reprinted, they would be through the roof. If you bought every Legacy card that was not reprinted in VMA you will have done quite nicely for yourself.

What does the future hold for Legacy? I expect a lot of the VMA cards to go down over the next few weeks as people switch from M14 to VMA draft (there will be a final flurry of drafting that occurs as we approach the cutoff date.) But at some point these VMA reprints will rise as people realize that they will no longer be available.

We also have a Legacy MOCS coming up in a couple weeks, which could drive prices up. I haven't been following closely the effect MOCS events have on Legacy demand, but now seems a good time to buy.

The big question is how Wizards will handle prize payouts for Legacy after VMA is turned off. Will they revert to Legacy being just another queue that pays in Standard-legal boosters? Legacy still had quite a following even when it was not well-supported, but Vintage is more vulnerable because it lacks the same player base.

Vintage Masters

Vintage Masters has been on a slow decline since mid-July, though prices are basically flat:

These prices will continue to decline until we head into the last week or two of VMA drafting. I expect the rate of drafting to accelerate in coming weeks as people tire of M15 draft and lame-duck Standard.

Prices could drop further, and at that point, we may see speculators and players purchase up large quantities of Power 9, dual lands, Force of Will, and other staples in anticipation of the supply cutoff. Watch these prices closely and keep an eye on how many VMA drafts are firing.

Theros Block

Several weeks ago we advised that you invest in a broad portfolio of Theros block staples. I hope you did. This index has seen significant growth (20-40%) since then:

The future for THS remains strong--the rate of drafting is low, and redeemers continue to pull supply out of the market. Moreover, October brings a new Standard which will prominently feature THS cards that have not yet found a home, and potentially turn role players into stars.

If past is precedent, Theros block cards as a whole will hit their peak early in 2015. Individual cards may spike before then, but in general you should not be in a hurry to unload Theros cards. It's only wise to sell if you think you can put those tix to work better elsewhere or if you sense a particular card could go down because of metagame shifts (for example, will Hero's Downfall remain in demand once Mono-Black rotates?)

All three Theros block boosters remain undervalued and will continue to rise. Journey into Nyx features a high percentage of money cards, and is an especially desirable set. That bodes well for JOU boosters going forward. See Sylvain's excellent article earlier this week for more details on booster specs.

Magic 2015

M15 prices have been flat for the past couple weeks. They remain undervalued. A complete paper set of M15 retails for $260, while an online set can be acquired for 100 tix or less. Redemption is going to narrow that gap, and buying a portfolio of M15 mythics is almost certain to pay off.

By comparison, here's a look at the M14 chart from last summer:

See where M14 hits the floor in August? That's where we are now with M15. By October the set saw 50% growth off of that floor. There are no guarantees in Magic finance, but I like our odds.

Conclusion

I hope this market overview was helpful. Interested in hearing your thoughts in the comments.

-Alexander Carl (@Thoughtlaced)