At last, the highly anticipated Standard rotation has arrived. This is always a time of change as the metagame is completely reinvented. The result is a massive speculation opportunity as players scramble to build and test decks that show early signs of success.

In an effort to show creativity and write an article that avoids redundancy with the other MTG Finance writers, I’ll summarize some of last weekend’s two SCG Opens by focusing heavily on the numbers. I’ll also spend the majority of my attention on Theros block cards, simply because I believe their price jumps will be more likely to stick vs. cards from Khans of Tarkir, which will continuously face some downward pressure as quantities are opened en masse.

11: Number of Different Archetypes Across Both Top 8’s

Using Star City’s naming conventions to dictate what an archetype is, I count eleven unique ones. Don’t be fooled, though – these naming conventions may suggest a highly diverse format, but if we dig a little further we’ll actually find significant overlap.

For example, I count two G/R Monsters builds and two G/R Devotion. There’s also a Jund Monsters list for the added black and a Naya Midrange list with white added. There is actually significant overlap across many of these decks. When I break down how many appearances of each of the five colors makes in both Top 8’s, I can quickly identify the early favorites:

• Green: 12
• Red: 10
• White: 7
• Black: 5
• Blue: 2

It’s still early, but so far it appears Green and Red are the most powerful colors. Perhaps that’s why the combination of the two colors showed up four times alone and a couple more times with a third color.

42: The Number of Sylvan Caryatid and Courser of Kruphix Across Both Top 8’s

Unless I miscounted (a possibility), I see a tie in popularity between Sylvan Caryatid and Courser of Kruphix. This likely comes as no surprise to most speculators – both of these cards were identified early on in spoiler season. And with their recent jumps in prices, it’s hard to predict what upside remains.

Clearly Green is a powerful strategy, but I’m not sure if I’d put my money into these two creatures.

Polukranos, World Eater made a terrific showing as well, appearing 34 times throughout all the Top 8 decks running green. Being a Mythic Rare from Theros, this naturally grabs my attention. But I don’t love how this creatures was in Heroes vs. Monsters. This will severely limit the upside. That, combined with the fact that the set version has already shot up a ton, makes me a little more nervous about buying deep.

I wonder if Nylea, God of the Hunt would be a better target. She was only a 1-of or 2-of, but her entry price is significantly lower and she wasn’t printed in a Duel Deck. If green does end up dominating Standard, she will probably be a solid pickup in trades simply because she should move rather easily.

That being said, I’m not sinking cash into any of these green cards because there are no surprises in the performance of them. Therefore, much of the upside is already priced in.

27: The Number of Goblin Rabblemasters Across Both Top 8’s

Red was the second most dominant color, and I was admittedly surprised to see Goblin Rabblemaster remain so popular. My expectations of this card was far too low. My misevaluation of this goblin led me to a premature sell when this guy initially spiked. Technically I did double up on the speculative buy, so you won’t hear a complaint from me. But buying at $1.25 and selling at $3 seems really underwhelming now compared to the 5x profit I could have netted.

Lesson learned – this guy is the real deal.

Being from M15 makes him an especially interesting card because there will be fewer copies in circulation. I’d estimate a price ceiling of around $20 for the goblin warrior – this means there could still be 40% upside. I’m probably not going to sink cash into these either, but they could be worthwhile trade targets even at these elevated prices.

Just be careful: red decks always tend to outperform in a fresh Standard environment. Control decks didn’t really have a chance to shine this past weekend, but over time these tend to evolve and become stronger. This could place downward pressure on aggressive decks running Rabblemaster. Watch the metagame closely if you’re deep on him.

13: The Number of Thoughtseizes Across Both Top 8’s

In a vacuum I still believe Thoughtseize is one of the most powerful cards in Standard. But when a Standard metagame is in its infancy, control-like cards tend to be eschewed for aggressive strategies. This means a rather disappointing showing for one of my favorite spec targets heading into this rotation. I would have liked to have seen triple the number of Thoughtseize appearing in strong-showing decks.

Fortunately there is still Modern and Legacy, where this card sees a ton of play. And as control decks are “figured out” in the new Standard, I suspect we may see more of this discard spell. I’m not panicking, by any means, but I will remain on alert to any potential downtick in this card’s value due to lack of Standard popularity.

Hero's Downfall, thought to be one of the premier removal spells of the format, did only marginally better, showing up 18 times across both Top 8’s.

My outlook on this card remains positive, though once again I will be paying very close attention to the evolution of Standard over the next month or so. If there isn’t any uptick in Hero's Downfall at top tables, it will be time to sell. Not yet, though.

Lands Lands Lands

Quiz: Which branch of mana fixing lands showed up in highest frequency across both SCG Top 8’s last weekend?

Answer: Temples!

I counted 64 total temples, with fetch lands coming in a close second at 61. Pain lands were definitely relevant, mind you, showing up 38 times. Even the uncommon tri-lands were played in their appropriate decks.

I still firmly believe Temples are one of the best investments you could be in right now as we ramp up new Standard. It may not even be too late – picking up temples with green and/or red may still be excellent targets. Temple of Abandon may even be my favorite right now – I may even buy a few more of these myself.

You know what number surprised me the most? 3: the number of Mana Confluence that showed up across both SCG Top 8’s last weekend. Ouch. I really thought people would favor these over playing temples, particularly in aggressive decks where coming into play untapped would be so important. Not the case.

Whereas with Thoughtseize and Hero's Downfall, I want to remain patient to see how the metagame evolves before I cry “sell”. I could not be more bearish right now on Mana Confluence.

In fact, as I wrote this section of my article, I took a break and listed my two playsets on eBay right away. As of Sunday morning my playsets were the cheapest buy it now listed, at $67.95. Let’s see if this drops over the next month.

Being from Journey Into Nyx, perhaps the lower print run will buoy this card’s price some. It likely won’t drop below $10 while it’s in Standard, but there is certainly enough downside right now as the card hits a short-term peak. These factors all feed into my decision to sell.

Almost direct opposite of Mana Confluence is Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx. I have been negative on this card over the last couple months now, but seeing it show up in a few decklists last weekend tells me it may be time to reverse my outlook. The card has absolutely plummeted in price, meaning that the downside is quite tiny. With Mutavault out of the picture, mono-colored devotion decks will now favor this land a bit more.

With proceeds from selling my Mana Confluences (fingers crossed), I may pick up a few Nykthos along with my Temple of Abandon.

Wrapping It Up

Khans of Tarkir is finally here, and it made itself known in Standard. Rotation has changed the face of the format drastically, and many new cards from Khans showed up in force! Mantis Rider proved me wrong – it ended up being very important in Jeskai decks. Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker proved it did, in fact, merit its higher price tag, at least for now.

Keep in mind, though, that all of these Khans cards will likely spike in the short term and then drift downward as additional copies are opened. There will likely be a card or two that surprises everyone and retain a significantly higher price. I won’t deny this. But the supply of cards from Theros block will be drying up from trade binders over the coming weeks, and price jumps in these cards will be more likely to stick.

Hence my focus this week on some cards players may be neglecting in light of the new and exciting. This week would be a great time to trade hyped Khans cards into stable Theros block cards like Temple of Abandon, Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, or (begrudgingly) even Polukranos, World Eater. Courser of Kruphix will maintain its elevated price tag, but I may like Nylea, God of the Hunt a little more at her current price.

A lot of money will be made over the next month, and actively following the metagame and making quick, focused decisions on what to target and what to move into hype will be critical to your success. I wish you all the best of luck!

…

Sigbits

• The more I research Temple of Abandon, the more urgency I see to acquire this heavily used land. The most compelling evidence: there are still a handful of these on TCG Player for under $3 each, yet Star City Games is buying them at $3 and selling at $6.29 (on sale). And, by the way, they have exactly 1 nonfoil copy in stock as of Sunday morning.
• I genuinely fear a reprint of Noble Hierarch at some point in the future. But until that happens, this card has no reason to drop in price. SCG is currently sold out of this card at $69.99, though they do have set foils in stock for $99.99 (NM) or even $79.99 if you’re okay with MP copies. Because of the judge foil printing, I find it amusing you can buy set foils for just $10 more than nonfoils.
• Speaking of sold-out cards, Linvala, Keeper of Silence is completely sold out at SCG. Nonfoils currently retail for $49.99 and foils for $159.99. I expect both numbers to increase over time as long as there isn’t a reprint on the horizon.