This past weekend brought the prerelease to local gaming shops all over the globe. I suspect players arrived in record breaking numbers for a chance to cast the newest shard-based spells while hoping to acquire a fetch land or two. I say “suspect” because I cannot know for certain. I didn’t go.

Certainly this isn’t the first prerelease I decided to skip. Often times I skip prerelease events for the smaller sets of a block because the “newness” of the block wears off. But I even had more excitement for Magic 2015’s prerelease event than I did for Khans of Tarkir.

What is wrong with me?

I think perhaps the newest Magic set just doesn’t really inspire me as much as previous sets. I tweeted this sentiment last week, and I got mixed responses. Some followers agreed that the set is almost stale before it was even released due to the re-use of various keywords and dynamics. Others feel this set is an EDH player’s paradise and they are thrilled to get more spells that fit into these new shards. No matter their opinions, mine remains the same: other than the fact that I can re-acquire allied color fetch lands for cheap, there is little here that excites me.

Onto the Finance

Here’s the good news: I don’t have to feel inspired to play new Standard in order to share MTG Finance insights. Sealed was never really my strength anyway, so it behooves me to skip over prerelease and release events – for me, it’s just bad EV. Besides, my sealed pools are typically worth about $5-$10 and I don’t usually win prizes at these events. Therefore I’ve made the conscious decision to place resources elsewhere.

For example, I still believe Dual Lands have taken a cyclical breather from their never ending growth trajectory.

After a wild spike back in April of this year, many Dual Land prices have steadily declined. But I feel this decline is finally leveling out. While Onslaught Fetch Lands are certainly not the biggest barrier to entering Legacy, it’s possible that a small resurgence in Legacy interest may stem from the reprinting of these critical lands. I didn’t believe that the reprint of Tarmogoyf would increase the price of Tarmogoyf along with many other Modern cards, yet this was the case. Perhaps newer players will strive to trade their newly opened foil Khans of Tarkir fetch lands towards Legacy.

Even if this thesis doesn’t hold true, the newest set will definitely drive greater interest in EDH. You know what also sees a ton of play in tri-colored EDH decks? Dual Lands. Assuming the newest set is a hit, the rising tide will once again lift all ships. The “ships” that see the most usage across multiple formats should rise quite a bit.

Targets with Lower Barrier to Entry

Dual Lands have one major flaw when it comes to MTG investing: they are already super expensive! Go buy a couple blue duals and a Scrubland or two and you may rapidly exhaust your MTG budget. While this may not be a bad strategy, I’ve always been a firm supporter of diversification.

So what else should we look towards as Khans of Tarkir is released? Well for starters, it’s worth at least considering older cards that fit in with the five new shards of the set. If these new color combinations increase in popularity amongst the Commander crowd, perhaps older cards that fit in nicely may see a small bump in demand.

Granted, we can’t just go out and buy every card that aligns with a specific Khans shard. Overgrown Estate is still terrible and likely much worse than Zuran Orb. But what about something fun like Guided Passage?

The three mana sorcery may be a bit of a penny stock right now, but the card has gradually increased in price over the past couple years and I see that trend continuing.

There are also the five dragons from Planar Chaos. Don’t get me wrong, their prices all tanked thanks to their reprint in Commander decks. But they have been steadily rebounding over the past few months, and I see interest in these creatures increase as players build decks around the new shards.

And if you really want to get targeted, you could always focus on foil versions of some of these cards. Numot, the Devastator may be on sale at Star City Games for just $0.50, but NM foil copies are $15.99! AND there are only a few less-than-perfect copies in stock right now. Barring a re-appearance of these cards in Khans block, I only see these foils heading higher. Khans block can be that exact catalyst to send prices higher. Heck, even foil Guided Passage retails for $12.99!

And let’s also not forget one of my favorite creatures that fits into a Khans shard: Doran, the Siege Tower, which has also been on an uptick lately.

Star City Games is sold out of set foils at $9.99 – expect these to go higher as well.

One Standard Idea

Most of you know by now that Standard isn’t my forte. I usually prefer formats where I can play some of my most powerful (or entertaining) cards. This drives me to focus on Modern, Legacy and EDH. Hence why I made mention of the suggestions I did above.

Despite this focus, I did have one idea worth sharing with regards to Standard. It may not be breakthrough – in fact I know it’s not – but I haven’t mentioned this thesis before in my articles and so I wanted to share it. Forgive me if it is redundant with your own rationales.

A Look at Pain Lands

Over the past few months I’ve been talking up Theros block temples and Mana Confluence nonstop. These mana fixing lands will be critical in supporting three and four colored decks in Standard. But I neglected one other cycle of mana-fixing lands we’ll have access to in the new Standard: enemy colored pain lands!

Now, don’t get me wrong, I recognize these have already shot up significantly. But the fact of the matter is, these come into play untapped and they provide a lasting flexibility that fetch lands cannot provide. Also, being enemy colored, they cannot be easily replaced by allied colored fetches. Therefore there will still be a major demand for these lands as they likely will replace Shock Lands in decks.

We have to acknowledge that these lands have been reprinted numerous times before. But I personally believe we are overestimating the availability of the older copies. What’s more, print runs are much larger today than they were when these lands were last printed, in Tenth Edition. With these factors in mind, I believe the enemy colored pain lands can go higher.

Their price ceilings will not be as high as that on Temple of Epiphany, which is why I like some Temples more. But I believe enough players are overlooking pain lands so that there remains plenty of upside.

As of today, I admittedly own zero pain lands because I am one of those overlooking speculators. But I’d advocate at least considering a diversification effort by trading into some pain lands. These should be fairly plentiful in trade binders right now, but once Khans of Tarkir becomes all that is opened at Friday Night Magic, these should dry up very quickly.

Wrapping it Up

I’ve never been a huge fan of Standard, and for some reason the latest set isn’t inspiring to me. In order to maintain my engagement in MTG Finance, I’ve shifted focus to cards outside of Standard I believe will see impact from Khans of Tarkir. This includes Dual Lands, foils of older cards that fit into the Khans shards, and even enemy colored pain lands.

Lately I’ve been focusing heavily on Dual Lands, neglecting some of these other ideas. After all, there are limitations to our resources and we can’t invest everywhere. But if you’re already past Khans of Tarkir like I am and you are lacking some inspiration, consider some of the ideas presented above – they have very limited downside with potential for upward movement. That’s usually the risk/reward profile I like to place my bets on!

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Sigbits

I listed some older cards above that fit into Khans shards and have surprisingly high foil prices. Here are a couple more that may surprise you.

• Fervent Charge is definitely not one of the most inspiring cards that Mardu has to offer. The Enchantment is still quite cheap. Yet a move may be possible, as Star City Games is currently sold out of both nonfoil and foil copies with price tags of $0.25 (on sale) and $1.99, respectively. This isn’t my favorite target, but I can’t ignore the fact that foils of this card may become hard to find.
• There is already enough reason to love Kaalia of the Vast. She offers some of the best flavor in the game for casual players. Now we have yet another reason to expect her price to go higher. Her affiliation with Mardu means she may be getting some additional attention by EDH players. Perhaps that’s why foil copies of the Human Cleric from Commander’s Arsenal are sold out at $34.99 at SCG.
• Whatever you do, please do NOT target foil Fungal Shamblers. He may be tempting due to his affiliation with the Sultai shard, but he was also one of the prerelease promos. Star City Games has plenty of these in stock. If Sultai is your favorite shard, then you’d be better off targeting foil Vorosh, the Hunter or even Damia, Sage of Stone. But be aware that these cards retail for near $10 with plenty in stock. They may still move higher, but perhaps not as quickly as some of the aforementioned targets.