Big News! At last we have some new spoilers for Khans of Tarkir. With this information in hand, including some of the set’s mechanics, we can finally begin to speculate on what the new Standard may look like so that we can profit.

Or, at least, that’s the plan.

Nothing is a guarantee, but as we continue to learn more, the task at hand will become easier. Of course, profit margins will decline over time as well. Those who jump onto the right bandwagon earliest will profit the most. They take on the most risk too, though, so don’t feel obligated to join the early adopter crowd. I often find that waiting for the first major tournament of the new Standard and buying based on those results still nets me ample profits.

This week I will establish my baseline heading into the new Standard season, with heavy emphasis on my favorite focus area. With all the information we currently have up through last Sunday morning, these are my stances on where my Standard funds are allocated. Things are always subject to change based on new information – it is spoiler week after all.

Nonetheless, I am confident that my conservative approach will yield positions heading into the coming weeks that will only strengthen.

A Look at Real Estate

My conservative, low risk approach to Standard speculation always starts with the most ubiquitous component of Magic: lands. Real Estate continues to be a robust investment strategy in MTG Finance and this fall’s Standard metagame should be no exception.

So far we have two significant data points that indicate what the real estate market will look like come rotation. First, we know that there will be a heavy reliance on mana fixing in order to support all these sweet (although cumbersomely costed) shard-based spells. In order to reliably cast Crackling Doom or all the sweet new “charms” we are likely to get, we’ll need to make sure we have access to all of our colors in the early game.

Mana fixing will be absolutely crucial in this environment. I’m also starting to wonder if the new Standard will be a much slower format in order to encourage players to run splashy tri-colored cards. If so, then I definitely still love Theros block temples.

I also picked up a few more Mana Confluence this past weekend – I think having untapped lands that still provide mana flexibility is going to be important, and Mana Confluence does just that. Plus it was printed in Journey into Nyx, which indicates to me the number of copies will be relatively limited.

Speaking of untapped mana-fixing lands, that brings me to the second major piece of news delivered to players last weekend: Onslaught fetches are back!

This is a major development in the world of MTG Finance. These are (were) nearly $100 blue fetch lands that are now being re-deployed into Standard and newly introduced into Modern. Much like the Shock Land reprint of Return to Ravnica block, the new artworks on these fetches will ensure the original printings maintain a premium.

Nonetheless, this will dilute the market drastically, likely halving the price of originals in the short term. As for these newly printed copies, I have a tough time seeing these maintain a price tag much over $12 after they’re opened for months. Being printed at rare means there will be plenty of these to go around. Patience will be rewarded here, but I’ll admit I am dying to get my set of Deltas so I can complete my Legacy ANT deck once and for all!

Between pain lands, fetch lands, temples, and Mana Confluence, I am confident there will be plenty of mana-fixing available to support the new Standard format. All of these will be in ample demand. While some will definitely appreciate in price more than others depending on the metagame, I don’t think you can lose money by focusing funds on the backbone of Magic: the real estate.

As an aside, by introducing Onslaught fetches into Modern, the value of Zendikar fetches are likely to drop. Players can stop playing suboptimal fetch lands in their Modern decks in favor of the appropriately colored ones.

For example, Misty Rainforest was a fine role-player in Melira-Pod because of the need to generate green mana turn one. But with the introduction of Windswept Heath in Modern, you can bet that the blue/green fetch land won’t be necessary anymore. Demand for the Zendikar fetches will definitely drop, and the price will soon follow. Plan accordingly.

A Cautious Glance Elsewhere

My conservative style predisposes me to focus on the mana-fixing lands for investment opportunity. Because of this focus, I tend to neglect other opportunities when considering where to invest for the new Standard. I recognize this tradeoff of risk and reward and I am perfectly OK with it.

That being said, I am still very cautious about buying cards that could only fit into certain deck types. Some players are clearly onboard the Keranos, God of Storms bandwagon. This is evidenced by the recent spike.

I know this god has shown strength as a 1-of or 2-of in Modern and Legacy, but I don’t think a 100% gain is justified solely based on this. My guess is there are some who think Keranos will find a ready home in Standard. Personally, I don’t think this is anywhere close to a guarantee.

Following my own advice, I sold into the hype making a solid gain on the sparse couple of copies I owned of the blue/red god. The new price tag of $15 leaves much less upside unless Keranos defines a dominant strategy in the new Standard. This isn’t a bet I like to make.

Speaking of gods, I find my attitude towards them all is the same. Until they demonstrate potential in the new Standard, I don’t plan on acquiring. I am confident at least a couple will stand out and therefore rise in price. Once again my strategy will be to buy those gods after they’ve proven themselves.

If I’m quick enough (and I plan to be quick enough), I’ll still be able to buy in at the base of a spike, yielding me ample profits on a quick flip. In the meantime, I’d much rather sit on cash rather than a load of inventory not knowing which gods will actually be playable going forward.

But believe me, when the time comes to buy based on the new strategies, I will definitely be in the forefront acquiring liberally.

The Rest

There are plenty of other targets to consider: all the Planeswalkers, Thoughtseize, Herald of Torment, Courser of Kruphix, etc. Jace, the Living Guildpact’s +1 ability is a cute combo with Delve, which is reappearing in Khans. But the blue Planeswalker is still very unproven.

Rather than try to buy every single card that may increase in price, I much prefer a focused strategy. There’s value in diversification, but I don’t see a purpose to spreading myself too thin here. If I am truly confident in temples and Mana Confluence, putting my eggs into other baskets just feels reckless. It’s like having very high confidence in a horse but then spreading bets on other inferior horses just because they have a chance. Be strategic, follow your instincts and the profits will follow.

If you insist on speculating elsewhere, I would suggest taking a longer look at Courser of Kruphix.

This guy was already a solid creature before, but with fetch lands in Standard he becomes very well-positioned. His triggered ability replaces your life payment when you crack your fetches. If you don’t like the top card of your deck, then fetching will also net you a shuffle so you can roll the dice again. Courser is very powerful with fetches.

Despite this, I still own zero. I may pick up a couple here and there, but there’s still significant risk to this bet. He needs to be in a deck with some heavy focus on green and I’m not sure if the right support cast exists in the new Standard. It’s possible that Courser just gets blown out by some new cards in Khans.

Therefore my conclusion remains unchanged: I’d much rather wait to see Courser prove itself and then buy rather than speculate now and take on unnecessary risk. My upside is reduced, but there will be ample profitability even for those who wait.

…

Sigbits – Biggest Losers

This week I thought I’d try something different. Based on the latest spoilers for Khans of Tarkir, these are cards I anticipate will lose out the most.

• Obviously losers 1-5 are all the allied-color fetch lands. I expect them all to halve in price rather quickly. Star City Games already has Onslaught Polluted Deltas at $59.99, well off their triple digit peak! Expect this downward trend to continue.
• All the shard-based cards in Khans will require some heavy mana fixing commitment. Unfortunately I don’t like where this leaves Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx. Foils are still fine, and the card will eventually be a great pickup for EDH play. But for now, Star City Games has over 30 copies of nonfoils in stock at $4.99 and I don’t see that price moving higher for months. Avoid these until they near rotation, when they will be nice pickups for the long haul.
• Mono Black Devotion is a very powerful deck in the current Standard. But once rotation happens, it’s “goodbye Nightveil Specter, goodbye Pack Rat, and goodbye Desecration Demon”. Unless there are equally strong replacements for these (which I doubt), I don’t know if I like Erebos, God of the Dead or his whip heading into the fall. These have already gotten quite cheap, but I see little upside from SCG’s $6.99 price tag based on what we know so far.