I am very interested in figuring out what the post-rotation Khans of Tarkir Standard metagame will look like, for both the obvious competitive and financial advantages that come with such knowledge.

The official rotation was today so there have not yet been any major Standard events, and the set won’t hit Magic Online for another week. In an attempt to get some in formation on post-rotation Standard, I have been studying articles and decklists from around the internet and social media to get a better picture of what’s going on with post-rotation Standard.

I have also been studying price trends on mtggoldfish.com to get an idea of what cards might be big players in the coming Standard metagame. While traditional wisdom states that finance trends follow tournament results, I propose that studying financial trends can also provide some insight into competitive trends.

Players have been adapting to the rotation for weeks and months, and as Standard rotation loomed, an increasing number of players moved into the new format. These players are the same ones driving a large portion of card demand, so analyzing their trading movements should provide some insight into what to expect in Standard in the near future.

I looked at both paper and Magic Online prices. I particularly like using Magic Online data for analyzing trends because the low trading costs lead to a large volume of trades, and the data encompasses players around the globe.

I studied daily and weekly movements in Standard cards to get an idea of what cards are on the rise but still under the radar. The cards are potential players in the coming metagame, and if they take off competitively, the prices are very likely to spike.

Patrick Chapin noted the cycle of Souls, and Soul of Shandalar in particular, in his list of the Top 15 Highest Impact Post-Rotation M15 Cards in his article "The Hunt for Red October" on SCG. He went on to include it in two of his post-rotation Standard decklists.

Red has a lot of tools for taking the control role, and, in a midrange format, this sort of deck requires a way to cement board position and go over the top of the opponent. Soul of Shandalar accomplishes that. Soul of Shandalar is also notable because its graveyard ability is arguably the most universally relevant and efficient of the cycle.

On Magic Online, this card hit a low of 0.6 tickets the second week of August, before steadily rising to 2.0 tickets three weeks later. After a few days, it had fallen back down to 1.4, but it hasn’t been lower since. After another week or so, it nearly reached its 2.0 peak. Over last couple of days the price has been fluctuating in the 1.7-1.85 range and is unlikely to fall much lower.

In paper, Soul of Shandalar fell steeply to $3 after the release, before slowly falling to 2.4 and holding steady there. That seems like a bargain for a mythic, and if it starts seeing competitive play, it’s sure to rise.

Hornet Queen creates both value and board presence. The deathtouch tokens can be used to hold off an opposing army or race in the air. Creating many tokens helps get around targeted removal, it’s abusable with cards like Paragon of Eternal Wilds, and it even provides three Devotion to Green.

It’s simply a huge card, and while it’s expensive, it’ exactly the sort of card a deck can use to go over the top of midrange opponents. Green Devotion will be a top Standard archetype out of the gate, and it’s a key card there. It’s also a very attractive card to reanimate from the graveyard, a strategy likely to appear this season with cards like Whip of Erebos and Endless Obedience.

Hornet Queen fell to just 0.1 tickets on 9/7, had climbed to 0.4 by 9/22, and since then the card has exploded to nearly 1 ticket. The paper version fell to $1 after release and held steady through the summer, but it has been steadily rising since the last days of August all the way to its current price of 1.5. Being from a relatively under-opened core set and full of competitive applications, I think this card has nowhere to go but up.

Herald of Torment was a major player in Theros block constructed, where it served aggressive black creature decks as a threat and mana sink, and against midrange decks as a way to break a stalemate. Earlier this week there was a post-rotation Standard Master tournament on Magic-League, won by the following BW Aggro deck.

Herald of Torment spiked to over 6 tickets at the end of March before steadily falling to a low of under 1 ticket after the M15 release. The price started picking up steam in the middle of September, and it’s currently back to 1.6 tickets. In paper, it’s post-release peak was around $2.5 after the JOU release and has since fallen steadily to its current price of $1.7.

It seems clear from the get-go that Herald of Torment will be a player this Standard format. And being from Born of the Gods, it’s in lower supply than Theros rares and has the potential to spike in value comparable to something like Nightveil Specter or Boros Reckoner. If it catches on as a top-tier format staple, it will surely rise.

Spirit Bonds is sitting at just 0.1 tickets online, and it has fallen from its paper pre-release price of $2 down to the current price of $1. This card isn’t being widely played right now, but it just screams out to me as a great card and something the Pros would love to sleeve up. It has applications in a variety of decks, and I could easily see it being played in Jeskai or Abzan in particular. I have my eye on this card for the upcoming Pro Tour, and if it breaks out there, expect a spike.

If graveyard decks take off in Standard, Nighthowler will be a part of them. Sultai or decks looking to fill their graveyard will be able to take full advantage of this card, which scales in power and is, for me, one of the strongest reasons to pursue a graveyard strategy. Patrick Chapin has included it in his Sultai decklists as well.

Initial results from Magic-League reveal that Abzan decks with a graveyard element having a presence. While these initial versions do not use Nighthowler, more all-in graveyard based ones certainly could. It's a strategy I'm going to explore and expect to be out in full force at the Pro Tour.

The online price for Nighthowler was just 0.1 tickets at the end of August, and it rose to 0.3 on 9/18 before falling down to its current price of 0.2. I do believe this card has a lot more upward potential.

Because it’s from Theros and is relatively niche, it may not be likely to hit more than a few dollars, but that would still be a huge gain off of its current price. The paper price fell steadily from a high of over $2 at the JOU release to the current price of $0.8. This will easily double to quadruple in price if it becomes a Standard staple sometime over the next year, and it’s something I’d look to pick up sooner rather than later.

Goblin Rabblemaster

One of the most dramatic winners over the past few weeks has been Goblin Rabblemaster, and a few cards in particular are riding his wave upwards.

Satyr Firedancer fell to just 0.1 tickets in June, and it rose all the way to 1.3 tickets by the end of August. It fell back to 0.3 a few weeks later, but it has recovered back to 0.5 tickets since. If this card becomes a competitive staple, it will likely see modest gains.

I am hot on this card because of the general strength of red going into rotation. Not many people have been talking about Monored Burn, but it seems like a very legitimate contender with a lot of tools. Not only that, but Satyr Firedancer has applications out of Jeskai and Mardu as a board control option. For an example, a commenter on my TCGplayer article filled with post-rotation lists shared this prototype:

A bluechip going into rotation is Purphoros, God of the Forge. This card also rides the wave of Goblin Rabblemaster, but more directly so. It works very well as an on-curve followup to the Goblin Warrior, where it will generate more value from the token with its passive ability along with the potential to pump attacking tokens. It’s a great fit into any sort of aggressive rush strategy--Monored aggro, token decks, and even Naya Midrange with Elspeth, Sun's Champion.

Its online price was around 5 at the end of 2013, and it slowly fell to a low of under 3 by the beginning of summer. It was 3.3 at the M15 release, and it has rose steadily ever since to its current price of 7.5 Paper prices have mimicked online, and since its low of $4.7 at M15 release, it has risen steadily since to $7 before leveling off this week. All it will take is a popular deck using for it to spike above $10.