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So far it's been a relatively calm summer for Modern specs. Relatively, because several Modern staples were pretty much flat while others were dramatically up.
With the release of VMA and the Vintage format being finally accessible to online players, every Modern card playable in Vintage, and also Legacy, got more than a nice boost and reached new records. It surely contributed to the Modern index breaking a new record high about two weeks ago.
If you were holding cards such as Thorn of Amethyst, Serum Powder, Golgari Grave-Troll, Infernal Tutor, Tezzeret the Seeker and Leyline of the Void you may have made some substantial profit. If you are still holding them you should seriously consider selling them now. These cards greatly benefited from the new interest for Vintage and have very limited or no interest in Modern; i.e. Golgari Grave-Troll is banned for instance and Infernal Tutor is pretty much unseen.
As for Modern staples only it seems that there are two different categories here--cards that have kept their up and down cycles independently of Modern PTQs being cancelled on MTGO, and cards that haven't really rebounded during the past 5-6 months.
Among the cards that have kept swinging with 50% or more variations: Serra Ascendant, Ranger of Eos, Fulminator Mage, Scapeshift and Inquisition of Kozilek.
Living End, Splinter Twin, Vengevine, Through the Breach, Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker or Raging Ravine for instance haven't really rebounded and have been flat for a while now. They would be a good buying opportunity if we weren't few weeks away from Khans of Tarkir release on MTGO.
A Seasonal Dip
With the incoming release of the fall set, Khans of Tarkir, Modern cards should see a marked decline pretty soon. As it was the case previously after Theros and Return to Ravnica releases Modern cards see an average decrease of about 20% in October and will likely rebound only in November-December.
We have seen that even with a summer relatively quiet for the Modern format the Modern index has hit a new record. The little dip we experienced two weeks ago is largely due to the reprint of the ONS fetchlands which directly impacted prices of the ZEN fetchlands. All together the ZEN fetchlands lost about 60 Tix in a week, equivalent to the dip we observed on the Modern index. Without this the Modern index would probably still be on an upward trend.
If you hold some Modern positions you may want to consider selling your cards between now and the end of September, especially knowing that they are about to lose 20% of their value in average. Some of your positions may be at a local high or close to their ceiling--this is definitely a good time for selling.
Even with minimum gains, selling your Modern positions now will free you some cash for incoming opportunities discussed in my previous articles.
- Khans of Tarkir prerelease events will be the opportunity to capitalize on booster price variations during that time. Providing you have enough time available this weekend you can almost use an unlimited amount of tix.
- Return to Ravnica block and M15 rares. These four sets have a substantial amount of rares that promise to hold value in Eternal formats. They will be at their lowest around the end of October.
- Some mythics from Return to Ravnica block and M15 will be at their absolute bottom next month. A unique opportunity to jump on these positions that benefit from both redemption and Eternal formats to rebound.
- Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir quick flips. You probably won't need thousands of tix for this one but few hundreds spare tix can do great in no time on October 10-12.
Positions Worth Considering Selling
With an expected 20 to 25% decrease in average most of Modern positions are probably worth selling at this point.
Among them, some are at a high point in their cycle--I strongly suggest to sell these. If you hold some of the following card selling now is a good move in my opinion.
Others have gained some value compared to last spring but are not at their highest, and may even have lost some value from few weeks ago. With very little potential gain in an immediate future, it's probably better to sell now and rebuy later if needed.
Positions Worth Considering Holding
These positions have been flat for a while now and are close to their one-year bottom. They may not even dip during KTK release events. You probably won't be able to sell them at a decent price and the best play here is probably to keep them until they rebound later this coming winter.
Actually, these cards may constitute a good buying opportunity at their current price. Waiting a week or two after the release of Khans of Tarkir is nevertheless recommended.
The ZEN Fetchlands
The announcement of the reprint of the ONS fetchlands in Khans of Tarkir had a direct and dramatic effect on the price of the ZEN fetchlands--their accumulated value dropped by about 50% in a little more than a week.
I was holding a nice amount of tix worth of the ZEN fetchlands bought earlier in August, and I was about to sell for a small but decent profit considering the volume. The news ruined everything. Without much time to spend on MTGO on this Labor Day weekend (a holiday here in the US) I sold everything to the best buying bots in two days leaving close to a hundred tix behind.
ZEN fetchlands have now rebounded a little bit. Sure, people still need them to play Modern, Vintage and recently the Legacy MOCS. After all the KTK fetchlands are not here yet. But if ZEN fetchlands are slightly on the rise now they will fall again soon.
Because of this seasonal Modern decline and because of the release of the KTK fetchlands, eventually Misty Rainforest and its acolytes are likely to take another dip. Fresh Polluted Delta and Windswept Heath, probably priced around 5 Tix or less, are going to flood Modern decks and replace some ZEN fetchlands, for better mana fixing or for money issues. This means that some ZEN fetchlands are not going to played any more in decks we used to see them, and in others we'll have a mix of ZEN and KTK fetchlands.
Similarly to other Modern positions my recommendation is to sell ZEN fetchlands now, whether you bought some when they rebounded or you are still holding on the one you bought weeks or months ago--they will never come back to where they were before that last weekend of August.
Once KTK hits, prices of ZEN fetchlands will fall again. Since some ZEN fetchlands are optimal in some Modern decks, such as Scalding Tarn in U/R Storm, they will rebound in October-November but I don't really know how high.
All I know is that I don't want to be guessing the new ceiling of Verdant Catacombs or any other ZEN fetchlands while holding copies of them. And since I'm not an expert in Modern decks I don't really know which KTK fetchland is going to take the place of which ZEN fetchland. There will be so many other Modern opportunities next November anyway.
What are you thoughts on the KTK and ZEN fetchlands? I think it's not going to be easy for ZEN fetchlands to pass the 15-20 tix value bar again.
Thanks for reading,
Sylvain
Scalding tarn and Misty rainforest will break the 20 tix bar again IMHO, as they are much needed in Tier 1 decks.
Not entirely sure about Misty. They’re still used in every deck running UG, in tier 1 (according to MTGS) that is Kiki Pod, RUG Twin, Scapeshift. But now Pod, at a whopping 11% of the MODO meta (via mtggoldfish), and Bogles in tier 1 (and various other t2+/brew decks) will have on-color fetches. Misty will certainly bounce back, but I doubt nearly as much as Tarn.
They may or may not. KTK fetch will impact the ZEN fetch, how? This is the real question. As needed as they are how many players are going to switch to cheaper decks because of 4 Tix fetch lands being available now?
As seen with the popularity of mono red decks for instance MTGO is the place where a fair part of the player base play decks based on cost and not efficiency, unlike paper mtg.
Legacy and Vintage players may also adopt more ONS/KTK fetch now that they will be significantly cheaper than ZEN ones, and since it doesn’t matter as much considering the mana base requirement in these format.
I’m posting about last week’s article, I guess you’re more likely to read my post if I put it here…
Although the M15 Lavadart Lands (get it?) might dry up in supply, they were all in 10E, 9E and AP, you didn’t mention the fact that they are a reprint at all. Your logic seems sound (ppl get bored with core sets, so buy rares at the end of Sep) you would think that the lands would not get as much of a bump since they’re all reprints.
The reprint effect is constantly present. Meaning it dampen prices at all time and regulate the lows and highs.
Without being in AP, 10E and 9E, M15 painlands would have settle higher, 3-4 Tix maybe, and would have a higher upside, let says up to 10 Tix.
Considering the reprint, the M15 lands settled at 2 Tix instead and might rebound “only” to 5-6 Tix. Percentage wise it’s about the same in the end.
I bought about 100 Tix of each lands and expect to double this, whether I got 50 copies or 20 copies doesn’t really matter in the end.
Also, in this case reprints are old enough that the effect is minimal. Let’s consider that AP print is really non significant, so for rares that have been printed already twice a bottom line of 2 Tix is pretty good. Meaning the reprint doesn’t affect it that much.
Finally, core sets are in the end opened in fairly small quantity compared to “regular” sets. Demand will likely be high enough to significantly drive the prices of painlands high in couples of weeks when everyone focuses on KTK and “forget” about M15.
These M15 Lavadart lands are nothing compared to RTR shock lands for instance that have been massively opened for many months and available for 2 two years.
I expect a lot from the M15 pain lands and I think core sets rares are probably underestimated in term of speculative potential.