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"Now who is this guy?"
"Who let him in here?"
"Why's he writing here?"
Yeah, pretty much. When Tyler first approached me about writing for QS Insider, my first question was, "Who sent you?"
I don't fancy myself a Magic financier. I've spent a non-zero amount of my time trolling the #mtgfinance hashtag. I don't even really read this sort of article myself. Most of the time, I drink just regular Coke... I know, I know--you get more "value" out of Cherry Coke, but I'm a simple man.
I've spent the last couple of years writing articles for MythicMTG on topics ranging from road trip etiquette to how terrible prerelease deck boxes have become, but I had written some "finance" articles. So what do I bring to the table and where do I hope to go with this opportunity?
Good question.
Maybe it's a desire to erase all the bad encounters I've had with self-proclaimed "financiers." Maybe its a desire to provide something good for the Magic community. Maybe I just want to make all the kids at my local shop stop saying "hashtag mtgfinance" every time the price on a card changes. Maybe it's all a ploy to acquire at least as many Twitter followers as the average high school girl. Or maybe I'm just trying to be the change I want to see in the world.
That's it.
I'm here to be the #mtgfinance Gandhi. How noble of me, right?
I know that there are others like me out there. Players that started out with a meager allowance that afforded them around a single booster pack a week. People that were forced to wheel and deal with limited resources and high aspirations. People that care about the value of their collections and want to get the maximum return for the limited funds they're able to spend on a hobby. People that don't want to (or don't have the time to) chase the peaks and valleys.People that want to return to the golden era of trading--that mythical time when folks showed up with stacks of binders and everybody went home with all the cards they wanted.
Surely there're people other than me that are tired of seeing all their Magic friends treat Magic as the real-life parallel to Brewster's Millions. I'm sure there are others out there that understand that understanding the economics of Magic is an important part of understanding Magic on the whole.
Magic finance is pretty much a solved format.
We all knew that Stormbreath Dragon was going to bottom out in the $12-15 range and slowly start climbing from there. We learned this price pattern from Stormbreath's great grandfather, Thundermaw Hellkite.
We've all known since Pro Tour Journey into Nyx that Elspeth, Sun's Champion was going to be a big deal. So much so that nobody was willing to get rid of them, causing the price to stabilize so close to it's current price. We call that a "Scorched Earth" hold policy.
A week into the format and all the impatient "Elspeth Hoarders" are releasing their stock for the "obvious spec" of fetchlands, keeping Elspeth from shooting up to that $35 mark that we're all secretly salivating over.
We knew that Nissa, Worldwaker was going to shoot up to an obscene number despite only seeing marginal play. We learned that with the first printing of Chandra, Pyromaster and the ongoing trend of declining interest in Core Sets. We can attribute part of that to casual demand keeping the card out of circulation, but if we had been paying attention further back we would have recognized that trend played out time and time again: Baneslayer Angel, Primeval Titan, and Thragtusk all come to mind.
We also probably have a good inclination that Nissa will show up in M16 based on the reprint patterns we've seen over the years, where the price will plummet.
We know that world specific cards like Inquisition of Kozilek are harder to reprint than cards like Despise simply because they contain the name of a unique character.
Still with me?
We know to check MtgStocks.com every morning for the the "big movers." We know that StarCityGames.com is going to have the highest prices on most cards. We all know that TCGPlayer.com is going to have pretty decent prices on mainstream cards, although subject to manipulation.
The economics of Magic are a relatively solved format. Beyond everything I've listed above, there is one trick that trumps all of this piecemeal knowledge.
I believe the most effective way to make money in Magic doesn't lie in the pricing trends for Standard cards, and it's not knowing who pays the best for Squire. It's not even the art of buying collections on Craiglist.
- It's a table
That's right. A table. This is the end-all-be-all of Magic Finance:
- Buy a table.
- Stand on the other side of the table.
- Buy cards for less than you can sell them.
- Sell the cards you buy.
- Mind Blown
Sorry to do that to you guys. I should have eased into the Mindmoil. But now it's too late. You've seen the man behind the curtain... err, I've shown you the curtain and the levers behind the curtain. So does this mean you had courage all this time? Sure kid, whatever you want to do with this metaphor is fine by me.
Where does that leave us? Objectively, this makes #mtgfinance seem like a pretty "loose" term for what we do. Maybe #mtgwholesale would be a better fit? Mining? We're digging rocks out of the Earth and selling them to a guy that's going to sell them for more? #mtgprospect? Panning for gold? Scrappers?
So where do we go from here?
Well, assuming that Tyler doesn't fire me on my first day, I hope to show you simple methods and practices for accumulating "wealth" as a player-first trader. Come with me, and you'll see ...
http://youtu.be/lUtnas5ScSE
If you're only goal with MTG Finance is to make loads of money, I hate to break it to you - you're in the wrong business kid. Unless you're running a shop, vending at PTQs, or shipping everything you buy on TCGPlayer.com, you're dabbling in MTG Finance as a hobby--and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.
The important thing about hobbies is setting goals for what you hope to get out of it.
My Magic goals are:
- Get out of the house and meet new people.
- Compete and collaborate with peers
- NOT LIGHT MY MONEY ON FIRE
- Crush my enemies, see them driven before me, and hear the lamentations of women.
Numbers one and two are my primary goals, but I don't want to wake up twenty years from now knowing that I spent $50,000 to play Magic and have absolutely nothing to show for it. My Magic expenditure goal is to at least break even. I'm not (currently) looking to make Magic a job. It's what I do for fun. For me, eBay isn't fun, nor is TCGPlayer or even buylisting.
If you're interested in tending to your collection like Mr. Miagi tends to a banzai, stop back on by. I'm not sure if you've heard, but I'm pretty much the #mtgfinance Ghandi.
Welcome to the QS team, Derek! I’m glad Tyler was able to recruit you – I’ve been a follower on Twitter for some time now and I always appreciate your thoughts and opinions on MTG Finance.
You could say MTG Finance is a “solved” format, but that doesn’t preclude people from thinking they know more than the hive mind. I still believe the greater fool theory drives price jumps on stuff like Pearl Lake Ancient and Dig Through Time the weekend of their Pro Tour breakouts. Also, supply and demand still dictate natural ebbs and flows that people could profit from, even if many people already expect them.
Anyway, eager to read more. Glad to have you aboard!
Thanks!
Well all this below is simply my personal opinion so don’t flame me.
Also, Wall of text incoming
While I do believe that any market that has speculators in it will be subject to the greater fool theory, MTG being no exception, I still feel that it is too early to call MTG finance a solved format. There are too many variables that will affect the hive mind itself, and people, who are by their nature irrational, will go by their gut feeling when there is an limited time to make decisions i.e. clutch decisions. Several people making clutch decision to buy an card in an very short time is what caused dig through time to increase in price, as no one wants to miss the boat on breakout cards. This as demand increases, price increase if supply remains constant and less than demand. Problem comes in when we do not know how much is the initial supply. Even if we do, speculators offloading into the market will cause an increase in supply, ergo causing prices to drop if demand remains constant. And if big stores keep stock hidden away, it will cause the virtual supply to decrease, this increasing the ratio for demand, ergo prices increase. I’m starting to ramble so I should stop here.
TL:DR: while demand can be determined thanks to the hive mind, without knowing the full extent of real supply, it is very hard to solve the MTG Finance format.
You bring up some great points about supply and demand. I think basic economics is a huge portion of the “solved format” statement I was trying to make with the article, though I chose not to include it partly because of space and mostly because I am terrible at really planning out what I want to say. There may have also been a little bit of “save something for later” thrown in for good measure.
I chose this topic for my first article to stir up discussion, rock the boat, and get people to think more outside of the box.
The unknown portions of Mtgfinance basically boils down to rationally trying to predict irrational behavior and the irrational decisions that people will make.
The amount of hype PLA was getting in the twitch chat during the PT was insane.
And a huge part of that was just due to them banning people from the chat for making the comparison between its initials and the stock symbol of a certain non-family-friendly company… Just goes to show you really have NO idea what factors can draw attention to certain cards!
This article was great!!!
I love that your ‘4 reasons’, as that is basically my aim. I have about $2k worth of cards in my personal collection, yes not huge, but I am basically freerolling them.
It has become part of my hobby, that enables me to do it all for very little cost.
I am really excited to see more of your articles!
Thanks, hopefully you got that the 4th reason was a Conan the Barbarian reference!
This is really awkward for me now… i thought you were literal.
“Maybe #mtgwholesale would be a better fit? Mining? We’re digging rocks out of the Earth and selling them to a guy that’s going to sell them for more? #mtgprospect? Panning for gold? Scrappers?”
I’ve been using “Gold Digger™” as my forum personal text for some time, mostly as I make most of my Magic profits from finding the goodies among bulk rares and collections.
I mostly dabble into Magic Finance to keep my collection affordable. I’ve spent a lot on Magic over the past 17 years, but I’m quite sure I would get more out of it if I would ever decide to sell. Admittedly nearly everything I’ve had for several years has increased in value or remained stable since I got it, but I am doing quite well even with my more recent purchases. I choose to stay away from the latest peaks and hypes, choosing instead to focus on older cards, preferably reserved ones. It may not be as fancy, but they tend to gain steadily.
I have plans to have an upcoming article be solely about what types of cards to invest in for what type of collector, make sure you check back by and let me know what you think!
Will do, this article was an interesting start.
That sounds like an article I would be really interested in reading. Magic has mainly been about reasons 2, 3 and 4 for me, but while 2 and 4 are reasonably planned out, I feel like I don’t have a strategy for 3 what soever. I go after this spec, or that spec with no real rhyme or reason.
Pure gold:
“If you’re interested in tending to your collection like Mr. Miagi tends to a banzai, stop back on by. I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but I’m pretty much the #mtgfinance Ghandi.”
Looking forward to future articles.
Thanks, looking forward to writing them.
Great article. I look forward to reading more of your stuff.
Thanks
Great article Derek. I think you’re completely right at setting goals for what you want mtgfinance to do.
At this point I just want Magic to pay for itself, and hopefully be able to trade from Standard into Modern. I want to be that guy making good trades and want everyone to look at my binder and find something they want. I’m tired of being that guy who only has valuable shocks and that’s it.
Great article and can’t wait for more.
Hey Frank,
First, thanks for the kind words.
Second – I wish I had a short answer for making all your hopes and dreams come true. A Magic collection is a game of inches, a banzai, a fine wine … hopefully over time I’m able to provide content that helps you reach your goals.
God, I love your comparisons. This article should be free, IMO 🙂
I could live with that.
I have to admit this is the most refreshing article I’ve read in a long time. Most people treat their cards like its their life savings and never remember the original point of magic cards; to play with. Keep writing these articles, they rock!
Thanks Wayne!
A real eye opener. It’s easy to get caught in the mtg finance hype, and before you know, someone forgets to get fun.
Welcome mtg finance Ghandi!
I just really like your twitter feed and the fact that we have a mutual disdain for Ari Lax winning the Pro-Tour. That and calling him Prince Geoffery. Perfect analysis.
Great first article, and welcome!
I seem to be the odd one out here, but I don’t feel this article was up to standard with the quality of QS articles. Anyone can open a history book and say, “Well OBVIOUSLY this was going to happen.” How about we see some called shots for the future and then come back and evaluate?
I’m also having a difficult time understanding what your thesis is here. If MTG Finance is a solved format then… I suppose we’re all wasting money subscribing to QS?
I’m not trying to troll here, I’m obviously missing something given the praise in the other comments.
You are indeed missing the real point in this article.
It’s time for some self reflection. What are you doing, why are you doing it?
We all somehow know how we do it. But that should be the last question.
Sorry to disappoint you.
Thoughtseize will climb to $25 and then dip back down to around $15 at rotation.
Elspeth will peak within the next month and then will be on a continual decline settling out around $12 at rotation as she sees no play in Modern, but is still wildly popular among casuals and is a powerful EDH card.
Stormbreath is going to stumble a bit, and then bump up to $25 as people figure out that it dodges Abzan and Jeskai charms and flies right past Wingmate Roc.
Xenagos wil slump back down to $14-15 but has a chance to make a run at $20 if people figure out how good R/G ramp decks are against Abzan.
How’s that?