Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
Welcome back, readers and speculators! Today's another MTG Stock watch so sit back and enjoy.
Penny Stocks
#1 Waves of Aggression (+316.8%) - This one smells of buyout (as of this writing 9:05 PM 10/19/14 EST) there are only three copies left on TCG player. However, just because it's a buyout doesn't mean it's not a solid pick. This is an amazing card in the Narset EDH decks that are proving themselves very powerful.
In fact I imagine this is the next Commander to cause spikes similar to Nekusar (though it appears to have already started). I would expect similar jumps in other cards with one printing that provide extra combat steps (for example Seize the Day, Savage Beating, and Aggravated Assault).
#2 Raksasha Deathdealer (+76.6%) - This one got a bump from seeing play at the Pro Tour (in the Abzan Aggro decks). He's proving to be a very difficult creature to remove and one of the few that can go toe-to-toe with Caryatid and Courser in the first few turns and come out on top.
It is a regular rare in what I expect to be the most opened set of all time (so the price will likely not hold for the long term) but until supply catches up with demand (or Abzan Aggro is relegated to Tier 2 or below) he'll probably maintain some of the spike.
#3 Jeskai Ascendency (-35.7%) - This card saw a major drop after the Pro Tour (despite Channel Fireball playing the combo deck and a lot of people claiming how dominant it will be in Modern). I fear this is one of those cards that's so close to bannable that people are spooked and want to unload them ASAP--hence a big bump in supply pushing the price downward.
The standard version does have some great matchups (Mono-Green for example) but in the end it only has two win conditions (Altar of the Brood and attacking with a big creature), so it's not that hard to hate out in Standard. In modern it's weak to Abrupt Decay and Thoughtseize, which happen to be major players in the format.
#4 Rattleclaw Mystic (-20.9%) - This mana dork really hasn't found much of a home in Standard (outside of the Jeskai Ascendency deck and some Temur aggro type decks). He's good, but he's nowhere near as versatile as Sylvan Caryatid. I think a lot of people were worried he'd be the next Caryatid so they wanted to get them ASAP, thus creating a lot of initial demand. Once those people got their copies the rest of the population just hasn't really wanted them.
#5 Surrak Dragonclaw (-18.5%) - If you ever needed a reason not to pre-order (despite the fact that almost everyone on this site reiterates this sentiment every new set), here's another great example. This guy has just continued to go down since release. He hasn't found a home in anything but sideboards.
However, it's important to keep in mind that with U/B control strategies doing decently at the Pro Tour it's not long before the control mages put down their Siege Rhinos and pick up their Dissolves again. If/when control decks begin to take back the format, you will likely see a resurgence in this guy as the defacto "out" to those decks.
Blue Chip Stocks
#1 Taiga (-2.71%) - Poor Taiga, yet again it finds itself on the list but in a perpetual downward trajectory. The Legacy metagame is just becoming worse and worse for Zoo (which outside of Belcher has pretty much been the only Legacy deck in a long time to run Taigas). The only upside (for people who don't own them) is that they are getting much closer to their pre-spike price.
#2 Volcanic Island (+1.84%) - The only card in our blue chips that's positive this week. Volcanic Island has seen an increase in demand courtesy of the bump in U/R Delver and Burn decks taking advantage of the ridiculousness that is Treasure Cruise. Finally, the decks that only need to cast seven spells have a way to gain actual card advantage and they can use a resource they previously had little access to (save the versions running Snapcasters).
#3 Tundra (-1.80%) - Good ol' Reliable Tundra is sadly continuing it's slide downward. While Miracles continues to see a decent amount of play (and Esper Deathblade pops up here and there), the UWR Stoneblade decks of a few months ago are nowhere to be seen (and these decks were a major reason Tundra saw continued demand).
#4 Show and Tell (-1.78%) - Once a cornerstone of the Legacy metagame (and my least favorite deck) it seems Show and Tell has been pushed out of dominance. The current metagame is very unfriendly to those trying to force through a three-mana sorcery or four-mana enchantment.
#5 Wasteland (-1.34%) - With a shift in the metagame to a lot more U/R Counter-burn decks, using a tempo play like Wasteland just isn't worth not providing either red or blue mana. The fact that the decks that love Wasteland the most (RUG and Death and Taxes) are just being outraced by straight burn spells means that players are pushing away from Wasteland and either joining them or trying to go faster.
Value Stocks
The current value stocks are relatively hard to pick. The early metagame is constantly evolving and to be honest I haven't seen the kinds of jumps in the scry lands I expected (except Temple of Epiphany). The painlands have gone up much higher than I expected (with Battlefield Forge averaging almost $9 per). In fact the painlands have done what we expected the scrylands to do (despite the fact that the painlands have had several printings).
Khans hasn't been out long enough for any of the cards to be at their floors yet, but when I start seeing the fetchlands in the 8-10 range I will aggressively trade for them, with emphasis on Flooded Strands. U/W is still one of my favorite color combinations for Modern and barring a banning of Treasure Cruise I expect UWR burn to be a major player moving forward.
Growth Stocks
Last, but not least, we have our "growth stocks" or sealed product. The biggest jumps were all in the previously "cheap" boxes, with Innistrad boxes, Scars of Mirrodin, and Mirrodin Besieged all jumping double digits. Interestingly enough there were no changes to the Worldwake boxes (the last one that was sold on eBay was sold on October 1st.) This would imply that sealed Worldwake is drying up fast so if there is still demand for it, I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent price jump the next time one does sell.
The biggest loser is Zendikar again. The massive influx of new Khans fetchlands has caused the original Zendikar fetches to drop to 50% or less of their yearly highs--and when you just want fetches, it makes a lot more sense to just buy the new Standard-legal set for one fourth the price.
| Week of 10/19/14 | Box | Most Recent Completed Auction | Second Most Recent | Third Most Recent | Fourth Most Recent | New Average | Average comparison |
| Innistrad | $199.95 | $211.00 | $199.99 | $185.00 | $198.99 | 13.50% | |
| Dark Ascension | $85.00 | $115.99 | $87.00 | $119.99 | $102.00 | 6.38% | |
| Avacyn Restored | $138.75 | $130.00 | $129.95 | $135.00 | $133.43 | -3.43% | |
| Scars of Mirrodin | $190.00 | $184.99 | $190.00 | $199.95 | $191.24 | 11.83% | |
| Mirrodin Besieged | $169.99 | $187.99 | $138.49 | $117.49 | $153.49 | 13.84% | |
| New Phyrexia | $285.00 | $309.99 | $294.99 | $299.99 | $297.49 | -2.51% | |
| Zendikar | $380.00 | $400.00 | $495.99 | $416.00 | $423.00 | -4.28% | |
| Worldwake | $622.00 | $659.99 | $740.00 | $621.00 | $660.75 | 0.00% | |
| Rise of the Eldrazi | $400.00 | $599.99 | $625.00 | $490.03 | $528.76 | 0.24% |
When the Legacy duals and other staples spiked in the Spring we thought it was a price correction. I think we are seeing that is true to some extent with the Blue duals it is not the case for Taiga and Wasteland and that price spike is evaporating slowly but surely. I don’t think your metagame analysis is helpful for the price of Taiga in particular, Zoo or Loam haven’t been major players and are not becoming major players. People get a deck together in Legacy and stick with it and don’t buy new cards and change decks week-by-week.
I don’t believe that the spike in June was so much a price correction…the massive jump in modern card values caused a lot of people to suddenly have a lot more valuable stock of cards and many (rightly) decided to trade into legacy and/or vintage cards which caused those cards to jump as demand moved up. The consistent overall downward trend indicates that it was not a price correction (as the price would have remained far more stable if it were) and was instead an overreaction, hence the consistent downward trajectory. As for the metagame analysis you’re obviously entitled to your own opinions, however, ignoring the fact that Taiga is the least played dual in legacy and thus is falling the fastest makes perfect sense. And while I agree that the legacy metagame doesn’t shift as quickly as standard (because the effort/cost of changing decks is much higher) people DO change decks and people change cards in those decks all the time….I’ve been playing U/W/x Miracles for almost 2 years now and I’ve definitely made a multitude of changes to both the main deck and the sideboard…and I have quite a few friends who have gone from 1 deck to 2 decks so they have another option when their favorite deck has a poor matchup with the metagame…
I’m curious how much of the fact that Wasteland is underplayed is due to it being expensive and how much is due to people just not understanding how powerful it actually is.
It definitely belongs in the UR Delver deck- I mean, it’s a Daze deck- and it likely belongs in every non-Miracles fair deck. Part of this is also possibly due to people preferring to play too many basics and people thinking those basics in decks full of nonbasics actually impact Wasteland’s power level negatively.
Why does it belong in UR Delver decks? It doesn’t tap for Red…which is what they really care about? Having Daze in the deck doesn’t mean you have to play wasteland…wasteland does make Daze better overall, but the U/R decks want every land to produce red…they likely only daze very relevant spells, whereas, some of the tempo decks may use Daze on far more spells simply to impede development of the opponents board. I will admit I’m no expert on U/R Delver decks (and you have a lot of experience with the RUG variety) but I honestly believe these decks are attacking from a different angle. RUG wants to stick a threat and protect it while it damages the opponent..U/R Delver cares more about just straight damaging the opponent…they don’t run Spell Pierce or Stifle main….just more burn spells, which means that they don’t have to resolve any particular spells to win the game…RUG MUST resolve and protect one of it’s 12 threats to win the game (since they don’t have enough burn to win w/o their opponents help)..U/R Delver has enough to just say “screw it” 3 to the dome!
I actually have a lot to say on the matter and don’t want to gloss over it in a comment so I’ll just emphasize the most important point that I have- basic Mountain is the worst land in the UR Delver deck by a huge margin. Even though you have a small collection of red spells, most of your spells are blue and Daze cares about Island. Four Volcs is more than enough. At least when you draw Wasyeland you get to inhibit your opponent’s ability to cast spells better than your Lava Spikes, which is exactly why you play a deck like this over straight Burn.
I actually have a lot to say on the matter and don’t want to gloss over it in a comment so I’ll just emphasize the most important point that I have- basic Mountain is the worst land in the UR Delver deck by a huge margin. Even though you have a small collection of red spells, most of Yyour spells are blue and Daze cares about Island. Four Volcs is more than enough. At least when you draw Wasyeland you get to inhibit your opponent’s ability to cast spells better than your Lava Spikes, which is exactly why you play a deck like this over straight Burn.
By my count (ignoring the color of gitaxian probe) the spell count is
38% Red
62% Blue
and the sideboard is usually 90%+ red (and no blue)
So while I won’t argue that blue plays a bigger role in the deck, “most” of your spells being blue is a bit of an exaggeration. 40% is not a trivial amount. And if you factor in sideboard ..Red takes the lead (by a small margin (about 3%). Also what lands do you swap out for Wasteland? Do you risk having a colorless source (that can pay for 16 of your spells (4 of which are FOW and 4 of which are Treasure cruise) when your opponent just fetches basics…if your goal is to always cast TC as fast as possible than Wasteland (while good) is still less good at filling your yard than a fetch.
My build is considerably different, but my statement is still true of Huang’s list. Probe definitely needs to be counted as you do pay mana for the card a good amount, particularly in turns where you cast multiple blue spells- ie chaining Ponders/cruises which is dramatically more important thang playing multiple red cards in a turn.
I went over to good length in a recent article why an opponent fetching basics doesn’t actually make Wastelabd weaker- and often makes it stronger. Notable exception is miracles. Even when I don’t want Wasteland I still don’t want Mountain though, because it’s not like miracles is wasting my Volcs.
On the point of Cruising as fast as possible, that’s really not what it’s about at all. People won a lot of games before Treasure Cruise was printed… With Wasteland you are more likely to be able to do things like Daze their Cruise or just kill them before you need the card advantage of cruising.
If you ever needed a reason not to pre-order (despite the fact that almost everyone on this site reiterates this sentiment every new set), here’s another great example.
I found that preordering the new Sorin at $11/copy shipped worked out quite awesome, actually. I’m just bummed I didn’t get many more.
That said, I generally agree with the sentiment, and I still don’t understand why a Planeswalker preordered that low when even Tibalt preordered at $20+.
I’m amazed you got him pre-ordered at that price….but looking over the ebay sales…it does look like he originally started out around $15…dipped to 10-12 for awhile and has since found his way back up. Though you found the exception to the rule, I still don’t like to make “bets” when you’re 99% likely to lose, but if you really believe in a card, more power to you. My #1 rule has and always will be…only speculate on cards you yourself believe in.
Travis Woo-effect on Waves of Aggression. It’s part of his Modern deck with Narseth. It’s only printed in Eventide, so a clear target for speculation if the deck proves to be the real deal.
I did see that after I submitted my article, so that’s an excellent adendum, though I honestly feel that Narset EDH alone will likely cause a rise in all of those effects (similar to Nekrasar), especially after testing my Narset deck last night….