The three days of the Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir roller coaster are finally over. How did you do?

Prices have been all over the places and heavily influenced by speculation as it seemed. After two or three months of a slow upward trend, several cards lost 30% of their value or more in less than 48 hours because of disappointing performances at this Pro Tour. On MTGO Khans of Tarkir cards were seeing 200% spike in hours only to lose about the same 200% the next day. As anticipated it was wild, really wild.

After a weekend with a lot of price volatility on MTGO, we may have to wait for the dust to settle to see more clearly beyond obvious winners and losers. Apart from a "gamble" on five Khans of Tarkir mythics bought on Friday in anticipation of the PT, I didn't touch any other card. I'm glad I did so; prices were changing too fast for the limited time I could spend online.

Some money could have been made on MTGO this weekend and I hope you didn't get burnt by holding your specs more than two or three hours. Taking a break for a cigarette or to go to the bathroom could have been a costly mistake on Saturday.

I was checking prices regularly on Goatbots to get an idea of what was going on. The only impression I had was that euphoria and panic were going hand in hand for three days. With paper Magic you have to wait at least two or three days before your get your cards, and you'll probably need a couple more days to sell them. Buying and selling happening in a matter of seconds on MTGO, I felt like speculators were buying from other speculators and were also selling to other speculators.

Two days later things have calmed down a little bit. I'm glad Mtggoldfish.com gives an update of prices only once a day. This way it doesn't account for the madness that took over MTGO this past weekend and price trends make a little bit more sense.

Lets see today what are the perspectives for our investments now that Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir is over. The Standard format seems rather open to me and with the exception of few cards that may not have any upside in the short term I feel confident for most of my positions going forward.

A Few Words About Khans of Tarkir

I said it before and I'll say it here again: I don't have any desire to speculate with Khans of Tarkir now. 99% of the cards are going to get cheaper week after week. If one or two mythics might sustain a high price tag in the midterm it is however totally helpless for rares.

My only move with KTK was to "gamble" on Friday by buying an about equal amount of Tix of Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, Wingmate Roc, Anafenza, the Foremost, Ashcloud Phoenix and Sidisi, Brood Tyrant. These mythics were the ones that seemed to have to most potential for a quick flip at that point in time. Based on what happened with Theros mythics during Pro Tour Theros I was decided to sell everything by Saturday night after the Top 8 announcement at the latest whatever the prices of these cards.

I ended up breaking even with Sarkhan, Wingmate and Sidisi and with a +80% gain with Anafenza and the Phoenix. If I generated a net profit at the end of this, prices were already way back down for some of these mythics as early as Saturday night, underlying the high volatility of prices this weekend.

As you have maybe seen this weekend a lot of prices doubled or tripled after some camera time or even a simple tweet! Pearl Lake Ancient was 1.5 Tix on Friday, 5 Tix on Saturday and 2 Tix on Sunday for example. If you haven't sold your KTK specs now I'm afraid your are stuck with only two options: cut your losses now or hold them for a year and hope for the best.

M15

No big surprises with M15. Nissa, Worldwaker is losing steam, Goblin Rabblemaster is still a powerhouse, and Perilous Vault might be the M15 breakthrough.

On the planeswalker side Chandra, Pyromaster was in several deck lists, including a playset in Levy's Mardu Control, and I expect Chandra to rise a little bit more. Besides Chandra, no other planeswalker really made a place for herself. Having bought Garruk, Apex Predator significantly higher than Ajani, Liliana and Jace, I'm on the verge of selling him now as I expect Garruk to converge to a 4 Tix base line until more favorable times for him.

None of the Souls made the cut either. I'm holding on to them for now, I got them cheap and they might get played as the metagame evolves.

Perilous Vault was a key board sweeper in U/B Control lists and made a nice jump from 3 Tix to 7 Tix this weekend. While a little bit expensive in term of mana, the ability to clear all nonland permanents at once is pretty relevant. U/B Control decks paved the way for the Vault, and other control decks may want to explore the benefit of Perilous Vault now, that's all I wish.

I didn't sell my Vaults yet and as M15 is going to gain value over time I'll wait and see if blue-black control decks, or any other decks using the Vault, start appearing in DE's on MTGO. If so, 15 Tix are totally possible in the short to medium term.

As for the rares, due to a poor performance of green devotion decks at the PT, Hornet Queen, Chord of Calling and Genesis Hydra are losing ground. I'm not selling them yet as I think G/x devotion decks should remain popular among a fair share of competitive players online. However I'll be vigilant to take advantage of any metagame shift to sell these.

Hushwing Gryff is gaining some momentum now--being Modern- and Standard-playable should help it rise more permanently above 1 Tix. I won't be too greedy with this one and may sell it very soon. After all I bought some copies at 0.05 Tix only a week ago.

All the M15 painlands with the exception of Yavimaya Coast saw a decent amount of play this weekend, not surprisingly considering most decks play three colors. 5 Tix is the price I'm waiting for to sell my M15 painlands. Sooner or later all of them should reach that price tag and I'm ready to be patient with all of them.

Theros

Although everything did pretty much okay, several of my Theros investments didn't perform as well as expected.

Xenagos, the Reveler was nowhere to be seen--I sold my copies, maybe a little bit too much in a rush here. Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver was also among my sells. I don't see them being major players in Standard in a near future so I'd rather get some Tix back now and move on. I'm also on the verge of selling Stormbreath Dragon. I'm not sure it can really compete with Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker.

Despite some play, Polukranos, World Eater lost value this weekend. However I'm pretty confident this hydra will see more play soon as several pros including Gaudenis Vidugiris and Jon Finkel played a variant of G/x devotion or constellation deck including See the Unwritten, Polukranos, Hornet Queen and other green devotion cards. G/x decks will still be among the crowd favorite.

Theros holds a lot of value and prices kept their overall flat/upward trend despite the big swings we've seen this weekend. Elspeth, Sylvan Caryatid, the Temples, Hero's Downfall, Thoughtseize were present. I expect them to gain a little more value.

In the area of cards to watch or acquire now, Prognostic Sphinx, Chained to the Rocks and Fleecemane Lion have shown more than fringe play this weekend. They might be undervalued now. If you're looking for the next Pack Rat one of these cards might be it.

Born of the Gods

Kiora, the Crashing Wave was among the cards I sold on Sunday. No appearances at all this weekend is a pretty direct message to me and I don't want to risk anything with a 9 Tix mythic.

Even if Courser of Kruphix lost 3 to 4 Tix from Thursday to Sunday, this card is still a pillar of any green-based deck, and was featured as a playset in the PT-winning deck. I expect the centaur is going back to 15 Tix soon. What is its price limit? Somewhere between 15 and 20 Tix I would say, at least that's the price range I'm targeting with my copies.

Brimaz, King of Oreskos and the Temples are still in my portfolio and I expect to make a little bit more profit with them. Herald of Torment kept its momentum through the PT and may be a staple of Abzan aggro decks. Hero of Iroas made a big jump from 0.3 to 2 Tix after Todd Anderson's list was posted. Is it here to last? Not very likely, but after all these kinds of "cheap" aggro decks do great on MTGO if they're efficient enough.

Journey Into Nyx

The value set. As of Monday, a JOU set was more expensive than an M15 one and barely less expensive than a THS set! Everything in a third set can be transformed into gold if played in a Tier 1 deck. And when half a dozen cards get played in Tier 1 decks the set turns into a gold mine. Ajani, Mentor of Heroes is the most recent addition after its price doubled. This Ajani confirmed in the following days the card could reach 20 Tix.

The two JOU temples were the most played temples at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. Temple of Malady is already at 15 Tix and 20 Tix doesn't seem impossible. Temple of Epiphany has already tripled since last July. I really should sell my copies but it's a four-of in the most represented deck of this past weekend, Jeskai Tempo.

If Keranos, God of Storms is incorporated into more sideboards, its 14 Tix price will not only sustain but might go up a little bit more. I would not be too greedy on that one though.

My only disappointment here was Prophetic Flamespeaker. Totally unseen. I bought several playsets back in June--time to cut my loss, this mythic could be 2 Tix soon. Maybe Modern can "save" it and in this case buying it back in a month or two will be a good idea. For now it's a big flop.

Last Words

First of all, I might consider going camping during the next Pro Tour. Too much volatility and too much speculation with nothing in the end. Prices were all over the place and I'm not sure they reflected anything else but speculators' madness.

I wonder if I would have made better deals if I had simply shut down my computer for three days and come back only on Monday. Even cards that dipped a lot because of poor results are coming up now. With the exception of well-timed quick flips, selling and buying into the Pro Tour hype is once again not a very good strategy.

Also, several cards such as Courser of Kruphix, Mana Confluence and Kiora, the Crashing Wave reached a peak a couple of weeks before the Pro Tour. This reminded me that when a fair profit is reached, with or without an incoming Pro Tour, selling is always a good move.

If the madness we had this weekend has to become the norm, with prices dropping in a matter of hours, It may become very relevant to sell whatever has generated a significant profit before the Pro Tour. Since even cards that see some play at the Pro Tour drop in price, as speculators pour their copies in the market faster than real players buy them, the Pro Tour weekend might actually constitute a buying opportunity. For instance, Courser of Kruphix reached 17 Tix a month ago and is now at ~12 Tix despite having won the PT.

Finally, with Khans of Tarkir being the center of attention now on MTGO drafts, I'm convinced that M15 and Theros block Standard staples will go up after the storm of this weekend.

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux