Hi! Sorry I could not respond earlier I was on vacations.

Thanks for the comment, that is actually an interesting question.

Paper and online Mtg have different market dynamics, in terms of price fluctuations and timing, and are also different in the buying/selling process.

I think that one of the thing that makes me good at investing on MTGO is that I know better and better about what to expect from this market, and I know the limits well (in terms of price fluctuations for instance).

If I had to shift from MTGO to paper mtg I would first try to make sure I understand well prices movements (and what cause them), are there marked seasons such as on MTGO? what are the best months/periods to do X or Y?

Buying a basket of specs is also one thing I do that “immunizes” me from big losses and make my returns constant. I would definitely recommend to try that in paper mtg as well.

This statement sincerely reflect my thoughts. When I look at the big picture of many hundreds of specs over 2 years this is my feeling.

With cards I sold “too early” I know I moved on to other specs and what I miss on one spec have been at least partially covered with the next one. For instance I sold my mutavault at 15 Tix, and went on buying Modern positions that also made profit.

What did you do with the Tix you made from you Pack Rat? What about other specs you had waited? I know I have example of specs I have waited for them to go higher after an initial spike and nothing happened, I lost time and sometimes money.

It’s been 2 months between Pack Rat at 2 Tix and Pack Rat at 4 Tix. You could have doubling also with some Modern cards during that same period. It’s easy to conclude now but how sure was it that Mono B devotions was The deck back then?

As for your question, I sold several cards that have spiked “hard” to reinvest in rotated cards and Modern.
I don’t have any Nissa and Ajani (didn’t buy into it, too bad). I didn’t like Nissa once she had spiked and don’t like her now either. 20 Tix is pretty high and there’s not so much upside for me, I would sell and move on.
With Ajani, he has doubled so fast, I would sell, take my nice profit made in two weeks or so and reinvest. Not sure he is as strong as that and from 20 Tix the margins get smaller anyway.
I have some Elspeths, bought at 15 Tix. I was waiting to see if she can reach 25 Tix. I’m willing to wait a little bit from here, but if it gets a little bit out of trend I’ll sell and move to something else. With 30 Tix as a potential ceiling I’m not going to wait to much.

I have something that’s a bit off topic. The thing is I never read your articles (this one included). I’m sure your a great writer and financier but I just have zero interst in MTGO. What would you say to subscribers like myself to make us feel your expertise is relevant to achieving our financial goals with paper Magic?

I spent a ton of time and racked up moderate losses in selling off cards after DE’s were canceled last year. Within 2 weeks those cards had all recovered and gained a bit. WotC made me really nervous and combine that with lack of disposable time, I never reestablished most of those positions and I especially regret dumping my Griselbrands @17 and Lilianas @45 at around the same price I paid for them.

I also dumped a lot of cards when the forced switchover to V4 was announced. In both scenarios, the smart move would have been to hold, as “the crash” never really came and within a couple weeks prices had firmed back up. I guess it shows that I’m one of those panicky investors. Then again, you could say “Better safe than sorry.”

I took my profits on Perilous Vault way too early. B/U control was having weak showings all around. I thought it was headed down and that doubling up seemed decent. Of course in retrospect, bad call.

In my first really big speculation, I made over 1,000 tix on the back of Mutavault. If I’d timed it better and held much longer, that would have been a 3,500 tix profit.

Those are the ones I regret.

I was really disappointed when i sold my 100 pack rats for 2 tic each, and then see them go up over 5 made me a little sick.
Ok, I made a nice profit, but the missed hughe gain made its mark.

Every speculator must have examples like these, and you cannot tell me there is no feeling of disappointment in those moments.

There must be people who sold their rabblemasters for 5… I don’t expect them to smile on the tickets made.

Apart from that, what are your thoughts on Elspeth, Nissa and Ajani (Mentor) ? I have these and am wondering if they fit the ‘better sell and reinvest’-option.

“It might eventually rebound” is the option I definitely try to remove from the different possibilities. Last year I kept Loxodon Smiter, Varolz and Duskmantle Seer all the way and lost a decent amount of Tix with them.

This year, I decided to go ahead and sell several cards I though would be loser after PT KTK results. I sold 6-7 cards including Stormbreath Dragon that may rebound now, but I’m happy I only lost ~100 Tix total. These 100 Tix loss have been already covered up by Temple of Epiphany alone.

No risk now, and it feels better this way.