Khans of Tarkir is filled with high-powered cards that are warping older formats and setting the stage for an exciting post-rotation Standard format.

Today begins the event that will define the metagame going forward: today begins Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir in Honolulu, Hawaii.

In this post-rotation world that has been so violently shaken by Khans of Tarkir, where players are lost, drowning in the maelstrom and forced to fend for themselves, the Pro Tour serves as a life-raft and will guide the direction of the Standard metagame in its wake.

Last week I shared my thoughts on what’s going on in the Standard and Modern tournament metagames, with a focus on the financial world. Today I’ll discuss the major financial movements of the past week and discuss the metagame and financial implications that accompany the Pro Tour.

Hornet Queen

Last week I wrote:

Hornet Queen traded at $1 in August before slowly creeping up over the past three weeks to over $1.5. From there the price curve moves up sharply, beginning with nearly a $0.25 gain from Tuesday to Wednesday. As of Thursday morning the price is at $2 on tcgplayer.

Given Hornet Queen’s positive Standard prospects and the recent price trends of Magic 2015 cards, I believe the card is still underpriced and poised to double, and with a breakout PT performance it may rise further still. I studied the price trends of Magic 2014 Tidebinder Mage, which spiked from $1 to $5 after Pro Tour Theros, and Lifebane Zombie, which went from around $5 up toward $9–Hornet Queen should have similar potential.

The price of Hornet Queen gradually rose through the weekend to $3, and on Monday a wave of buying drove it to $4. It hit $5 by Tuesday, and it’s sat somewhere around $5.5 since Wednesday. Various people, in articles, on social media, on Reddit, and even on the QS forums, have said it has room to grow further, potentially following the path of Goblin Rabblemaster to a price approaching $20. If the card completely dominates the Pro Tour Top 8, maybe this extreme scenario could be a reality, but given even moderate Pro Tour success, a $10 pricetag is a very realistic possibility in a set with a $4.5 uncommon in Stoke the Flames.

I have seen many, many people discount Hornet Queen with explanations like “it’s a one-of” or “never a playset, 2-3 max.” In reality, Hornet Queen is seeing an increasing amount of play.

TCGplayer Standard States last weekend provided a ton of decklists and there are multiple decks with 3 Hornet Queens maindeck and one sideboard.

Then there's this Green Devotion deck with a mindeck playset of Hornet Queen, which outright won States in Washington: http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/deck.asp?deck_id=1216907

Real Estate Update

Standard real estate continues to do well across the board.

I wrote last week:

Steadily rising is the stock of the painland cycle, particularly Battlefield Forge. The Apocalypse versions of all seemed to rise first, but other printings from 8th, 9th, and M15 are following suit. M15 Battlefield Forge hit $7 on Wednesday. Much of the ship has sailed on these lands, but I believe there is still upside.

All printings of Battlefield Forge continue to move up, with the M15 price catching up to its older counterparts with a healthy 25% growth in the past week. The Tenth Edition printing grew to the most expensive of all, sitting around $9, with the Apocalypse coming in a few cents cheaper, and M15 and Ninth Edition sitting at $8.5.

M15 Shivan Reef grew by over by over 20% to sit just under $7, nearly caught up to older printings that command a premium of $0.52 for Apocalypse and $0.51 for Ninth Edition. Tenth Edition holds the highest price with a $0.60 premium over the M15 printing.

A Look at Magic Online

On Magic Online, some cards grew from very low prices to over a dollar or more.

Aetherspouts grew from mere pennies to over 1.25 tickets. Daring Thief and Chief Engineer grew to a similar price point. Hypnotic Siren was another large gainer. Hero of Iroas saw a large increase as well. Doomwake Giant doubled to nearly 2.5 tickets.

Standard uncommons did well too. Drown in Sorrow quadrupled in price to 0.86 tickets, and Nyx-Fleece Ram doubled in price to over 2 tickets. It's very possible we'll see some of this movement show itself in paper prices.

Real estate also did well on Magic Online. Mana Confluence saw significant growth of 33% to 17 tickets.

The cycle of temples, particularly Temple of Epiphany and Temple of Enlightenment from the Jeskai Tempo deck, have done very well online in the past week. Temple of Enlightenment grew by 58% to 4.7 tickets. Temple of Epiphany grew by an incredible 125% to sit at nearly 12 tickets.

On the success of Abzan strategies, Temple of Malady grew by 51% to nearly 14 tickets.

This massive online growth in scry lands is certainly something to pay attention to. This may forecast an incoming spike in paper prices across the scry lands, especially if they perform at the Pro Tour.

Remember, the spike will be magnified in sets with less supply, which is why Journey to Nyx demands a premium over Born of the Gods, which demands a premium over Theros.

An Update on Glittering Wish

Glittering Wish saw gains this past week after a wave of buying, rising from $15 on average to a price approaching $20.

The card has been going through cycles over the past two weeks, with periods of buyouts followed by sell-outs, only to be bought out again. The TCGplayer low on this has caught up to the mid, and there currently aren’t any copies available for under $19 shipped. There may be another wave of selling at a this price point, but even without a major buyout, the price may continue moving northwards as the deck gains popularity.

I have heard a lot of speculative talk about the Jeskai Ascendancy combo deck and the potential for Modern bannings, and with it comes the risk that Glittering Wish crashes. Some have gone so far as to suggest that Glittering Wish would be banned, but in my eyes, that is an unrealistic possibility.

And if there was a banning, it would be the engine card itself, Jeskai Ascendancy. This card has no replacements, but the mana producers and cog draw spells have multiple. This is a case where the only choice would be to ban Jeskai Ascendancy.

If a banning becomes imminent, then Glittering Wish will start to fall in price accordingly, but I don't believe it will ever fall anywhere near its previous lows. It's clear that even before Jeskai Ascendancy was printed, Glittering Wish was underpriced, and it had been for a long time. People will start finding other homes for Glittering Wish, and as more gold cards are printed, it will only get better. I think the first post-buyout price point of $8 is the absolute low for Glittering Wish wish as long as it remains Modern legal.

An astute contributor to the QS forums pointed out Idyllic Tutor as a potential card for finding Jeskai Ascendancy in the case that Glittering Wish was banned, and while I don’t think that’s a likely scenario, I think it’s worth pointing out for the tutor’s value and potential in general for this archetype and others. For example, I could envision the combo deck playing a single copy of Idyllic Tutor to provide additional redundancy.

The Wake of the Pro Tour

I expect the post-Pro Tour Standard metagame to be stable until the next set, Fate Reforged, is released in the winter.

The Pro Tour will set the metagame going forward, and this puts tremendous pressure on the Pro Tour in a financial sense. There is a lot of anticipation of future performance built into the market and card prices, and a lot of card prices are inflated because of potential, and many cards will fall when they do not perform at the Pro Tour.

This is especially evident in Khans of Tarkir, where cards come with significantly more uncertainty. The theoretical price of cards is inflated over the purchase price of boxes, so in time they have to fall in price.

As such, if looking to speculate the Pro Tour, I would be looking to acquire cards from Theros block and Magic 2015.

Cards that do well at the Pro Tour are poised to rise, and if there is a huge breakout--like with Monoblue Devotion and to a lesser extent Monoblack Devotion at last year’s PT--expect a significant gain and a new price point going forward for the staple cards.

-Adam