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That certainly seems to be the question right now. The first weekend of New Standard produced a lot of what we knew already, namely that green decks are still extremely good in this post-Wrath world.
Green and red dominated the dual SCG Opens that took place over the weekend, just as thoroughly as Andrew Luck helped me dominate my Fantasy Football matchup. We saw Mono-Green Devotion, Green-Red Monsters, Green-based Abzan decks, and basically anything else you can imagine. If it could play green, it did, and it did well last weekend.
But is that all there is to the format?
I don’t think so. I know that’s how it looked last weekend, but even in the midst of all the centaurs and hydras you can imagine, there were a few signs of hope.
I had a bunch of numbers ready to throw at you, but Nick Vigabool made a super-cool infographic that does the same thing (only prettier), so let’s just take a look at that.
Analysis
For starters, the Jeskai deck that actually won New Jersey. It seems strong enough to be real going forward, even if there’s no way the new $8-9 pricetag on [card]Mantis Rider[card] can hold.
Look, I know people are excited about this set. I’m seeing distributors sell out, stores sell out, and prices spike all across the board. The EV on a box of Khans of Tarkir is more than $170 right now, and the last time we’ve seen that happen in Standard is when we were facing massive shortages of Magic 2010 and Baneslayer Angels. Simply put, it’s nearly unheard of.
That’s a great sign for Magic as a whole. I’m heading out to the Pro Tour in Hawaii next week for my first coverage gig at the big show (pretty excited for this), and I expect it to be one of the most-watched ever. It means that we can expect the increased interest in Modern thanks to fetchlands to push up staples across the board (as I wrote about a few weeks ago). It means the increased prices on Theros cards can stick for a little while at least. It means Standard attendance should be up this year, and it means 2015 should be a really good year for the game, and for us.
What it does not mean is that Khans of Tarkir cards can hold these prices.
The product will be opened, even if it takes some time. All bets are likely off when the Pro Tour results hit us, and we’re going to see some spikes for sure. But they won’t last forever. Khans is quickly going to become the most-opened set of all time, and that doesn’t spell good things for future prices.
With that aside, let’s move into looking at some of the cards lost amidst the Mantis Rider/ZOMGGREEN revelation of the weekend.
Nylea, God of the Hunt
Okay, I lied. We are going to start with a few green cards.
Nylea is about $6 right now, and it’s certainly the most broken thing to do with mana in a devotion format. This isn’t my favorite target of the green cards, but it’s one worth keeping in mind, whereas these next few I think are actually cards I’m actively looking to pick up right now.
Genesis Hydra
This triggers when you cast it, much like cascade did. That means that even if the format shifts more toward control, this guy will still be good. And at $3 it’s an attractive buy-in, seeing as how we’ve watched Magic 2015 cards like Goblin Rabblemaster push up to a stupefying $20.
Hornet Queen
Hornet Queen was played a little less than Hydra (22% to 23%, with a few less copies per deck), but the buy-in is just $1.50. I see huge upside here, since it’s not like the original copies from Commander (which are nearly $4) are exactly plentiful. $5+ here honestly does not seem like a stretch.
Arbor Colossus
Worth pulling out your bulk piles since it was in 19% of decks thanks to devotion, but not much more to say.
Doomwake Giant
We start now grasping a little bit, but that’s okay. It means there’s a lot more opportunity here. Doomwake Giant is basically bulk, but it’s really good against Rabblemaster and solid all-around. Not a horrible throw-in.
Hornet Nest
Under $2, but pretty much the perfect answer to the big green monsters running around. It’s not the best ever against the red decks, but it’s far from a slouch, getting you to Siege Rhino with some nice blockers to boot.
Anger of the Gods
We’ve seen a little movement here, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see this creep up even further. We’ve seen stuff like Slagstorm hit $5 in Standard before, and Anger also has some Modern appeal going for it. It’s very good against the red decks and the green ramp decks, even if it doesn’t hit Courser. I expect a resurgence of control at the Pro Tour, and this could lead the way.
Chandra, Pyromaster
I’ve mentioned liking Chandra in the past few months, and at $7 my opinion hasn’t changed. If Liliana Vess is going to be $10, then a planeswalker printed less and seeing more play than that can most certainly move past $10. Lot to like here.
Setessan Tactics
This is actually way more relevant that you realize. It allows Coursers to kill Mantis Riders and survive, it allows you to clear away your opponent's board, and it’s from a lowly third set. Of course the time to get in on this was a month ago when it was under a buck and we first started writing about it, but I know you can still get this as a throw-in.
First Impressions
That’s your Week 1 look at new Standard. Things will almost assuredly change at the Pro Tour (remember, last year that’s where devotion decks first appeared), but until then this is what we have to work with.
Thanks for reading,
Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter