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Last week QuietSpeculation.com was ridden with bearish articles.
Derek and I have been repeating the negative outlook on Standard cards right now. Corbin wrote an insightful piece about how casual specs are prone to reprints and, as such, make riskier investments than ever before. And David highlighted the dropping prices on a number of Legacy staples such as Dual Lands. Even Jason commented how the new Commander decks offer little room for immediate value if buying at MSRP.
What is going on here?
Each article mentioned above provided very valid explanations for their respective trends. But I am beginning to wonder if there is something more at play here – an overarching theme that is dragging prices down. If this is the case, then the outlook may be grim.
But rest assured, things are not all bad. This week I want to touch on a shift I’m noticing in MTG speculation and then spend some attention on cards I think are safe buys for the mid and long term outlooks. After all, my goal isn’t to liquidate my entire MTG portfolio just because the outlook has been negative. There is always a bull market somewhere, right?
Down Down Down
Nothing is immune these days. Standard cards have yielded unimpressive returns, Modern cards are risky with potential reprints and an under-supported format, and even Legacy staples are under pressure for whatever reason. Why could this possibly be? Are there any links across all of these trends that could explain the downward momentum?
Possibly.
As I alluded to in a previous article, I still wonder if things were perhaps too overbought. In the stock market, people often over-react to good news, sending shares into the stratosphere with unjustifiable reasons. Emotion alone isn’t enough to support the sudden growth in a stock’s price.
The same phenomenon is paralleled in Magic, but on an even more dramatic time scale. I am thankful that most stocks don’t jump 200% and then drop down to 33% of peak value in a matter of a couple weeks. My stomach couldn’t handle it.
With these pronounced spikes, prices tend to become overbought and supplies cannot keep up… for about a week. Then once all the speculators receive their copies in the mail, they rush to list them for the cheapest price in the hopes of a quick flip.
Thus begins the race to the bottom.
While movements haven’t been so drastic with Dual Lands, they too have been subject to hyped buying and subsequent drops, albeit at a slower pace.
This overbuying is one factor that stretches across multiple formats, and it could explain why even stalwarts like Tropical Island are on a downward trajectory. Though, I honestly hope we’re seeing the bottom in Duals specifically. More on this later.
Another possible explanation for the recent trends is that there have been few surprises of late.
Think about it. The good cards in Standard were well-anticipated, Legacy has been fairly stagnant for quite a while now (though perhaps Treasure Cruise can shake things up?), and there has been little motivation to brew creatively in the Modern space. The fact that the current PTQ season is now sealed can also be a small factor, though it would mostly be related to Standard.
There just aren’t as many new breakout cards or shifting metagames. This leads to boring card price movements, as they listlessly drop from their overhyped highs down towards a more realistic level. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it does lead to the unexciting price curves we’ve seen of late. It’s very difficult to get excited about charts like these:
Is Anything a Good Buy?
Many of the dropping cards will eventually bottom out and become good targets. This is especially true for a small subset of these cards, which I am beginning to target in trades.
First and foremost, I keep talking about Dual Lands. These are the backbone of Legacy and are on the reserved list. They are almost like an investment in Magic itself. The older Magic becomes and the more players enter the game, the more in-demand these will go.
I am unphased by the recent pullback in prices. To me, this is an excellent opportunity to acquire more. In fact, Dual Lands are the only subset of cards that I have bought with my cash. Through patient eBay auction bidding, I’ve managed to grab a few good deals. I like Tropical Island and Tundra most because they have pulled back but have the critical characteristic of being blue. But I don’t even hate [card]Savannah[/cad] right now – Maverick may currently be out of favor, but things will surely change in the future and the G/W Dual Land may once again shine. In the meantime, get the copies you need now while they are cheap!
I am beginning to think about buying another subset of cards. Specifically, I am wondering if certain foils of eternal cards are worth acquiring a bit more aggressively. By looking at this category, you can avoid some of the risk of reprints. Of course some cards are already overpriced and well-known. But other cards are used in certain Modern and Legacy decks and haven’t had the incredible price jumps – at least not yet.
Consider, for example, the recent foil I picked up in trade: Future Sight Slaughter Pact. The nonfoil version of this card happens to be one of the few out there that has been on a steady rise recently. The foil has, of course, risen as well, but its value is still quite reasonable considering its utility in multiple formats. What’s more, the Future Sight version has the advantage of being the original printing. Yes, I know the Modern Masters version uses the same artwork.
This is suboptimal indeed. But at least original versions in foil always maintain that distinguished characteristic of being most in demand.
By the way, there is definitely data out there that supports this theory.
Consider how the Grand Prix foil version of Umezawa's Jitte retails for $49.99 – a respectable price tag in and of itself. Meanwhile, the set foil, aka the original foil printing, retails for a whopping $299.99.
Burning Wish is another example where the original foil version has held up pretty well despite recent reprinting. The retail price is $69.99 while the Judge Foil is only $49.99.
And, of course, let’s not forget one of the highest-impacting reprints of all time: Polluted Delta. Nonfoil Onslaught copies retail for only $59.99 now after peaking around $100. But foil versions aren’t suffering quite as much. Star City Games is out of stock of NM copies, with a price tag of $399.99!
Take that, reprint!
Keeping This Short
I'm afraid this week necessitates a shorter article than I am used to. I have been traveling in Europe on business this past week, and the hectic schedule has forced me to cut short my column so I can prioritize some other activities.
Before I go, let me just emphasize one last thing. So many cards are being reprinted left and right across an array of new products. Conspiracy, Commander, Modern Masters, new Standard sets, Duel Decks, From the Vaults, promos, and more products are all bringing us second comings of our favorite staples. It feels like these reprints are pouring in at a faster pace than ever before.
Therefore, it is very important that we are careful with our speculation. Going super deep on something that feels like a sure thing could lead to years of stagnation. Shock Lands are the perfect example, staying flat in price for far longer than most anticipated:
Proceed with caution – that is my best piece of advice.
And if you want to increase your immunity to these reprints, then please focus on Dual Lands, other Reserved List cards, and original foil printings. Promotional cards could also pay out well if you buy at the right time. I’ve been eyeing the new promo Hanna, Ship's Navigator for months now, and that price just will not drop!
Beyond this list, there is an investment field of land mines right now. Corbin made this observation recently, and I think the fact merits a change in strategy. You may miss an opportunity or two by remaining cautious, but your capital preservation will be much more assured. Depending on your primary investment objectives, this could be the perfect time to work this strategy into your portfolio. You’ve been warned.
I wonder what has inspired you to mention some of those cards, LOL.
I can’t really move foils well myself and as we all know, you aren’t profiting until you move the card. The Pact cost me 3.5 euros about 1.5 year ago, the Jitte a bit under 20 euros about half a year ago. As I know I’ll have a hard time moving them I was happy to make the trades with you.
I’m glad you got a kick out of that. 🙂
You’re absolutely right on the profit piece. It’s all just “paper gains” until you get cash. Even if I trade a $1 card for a $1000 card, I don’t have any profit in hand until I have cash. It’s the universal metric of value. Unless I’m trading cards for food or shelter, cash is really it. And with some obscure foils, it can be tough to find the right buyer willing to pay that premium. This is a reason to be cautious.
I would offer you a double price for the cards you mentioned.
Obviously, the Pact is worth considerably more than that, while the Jitte is considered to be valued quite low at $50 retail, as Sig alluded to in his article.
The prices I mentioned were what I got them at, not what we ended up valuing them in our trade. I got about 210 bulk rares, a Johan (LE), Terminus and Apocalypse for the Jitte (I have a very good out for bulk rares, they alone would get me over $60) and the Pact was in a larger deal for Sig’s Mox Jet, where it was valued at $25 versus the Jet at $700 (both TCGPlayer low for their condition). I ended up overtrading for the Jet by approximately the Pact’s value, but, considering that I was picking up Power I was ok going over a bit.
I think we’re seeing a couple trends at work here:
Starcity IS Legacy in the USA, anyone that claims otherwise is ignorant to the truth at hand, by splitting Sundays to Modern AND Legacy, they’ve disincentivized people to BUY INTO Legacy and also offered a “soft” tournament for the Sharks to Shark. Increasing prices is almost always related to an increase in demand, so with a “flat” demand for Legacy, the prices are going to taper off a bit.
The second effect is a number of people shifting towards Delver decks. These decks are basically a pile of commons and uncommons plus a very flexible mana base. You can literally play any fetchland that searches Islands in both Modern and Legacy and you don’t even really NEED four copies of Volcanic Island / Steam Vents because a good chunk of your spells are blue anyway.
The real question to be asking about Legacy prices is: how have Volcanic Islands been trending lately?
Derek, thanks for the terrific build! I completely forgot about SCG’s Modern open addition. I definitely agree this is a primary driver for some downward movement on Legacy staples. Hopefully this trend balances itself out soon enough and prices stabilize. Does that mean Modern is the format to buy into after all? I just don’t like dancing around all those potential reprints.
As for Volcanic Island, it has also been dropping.
http://www.mtgstocks.com/cards/15728
I’m not sure if this has been mentioned in an article recently, but here goes: What happened to set-specific mechanics and vorthos-related names being safe from reprints? Commander 2014 saw a surprising number of cards that I had pegged as safe from reprint (Crypt Ghast, Emeria). Plus, Wizards is wonderfully ambivalent with their goal of sealed product “it’s for the casual players”–oops, here’s Containment Priest, TNN. I’m sure the writing has been on the wall for longer than I want to admit–particularly the inclusion of Inquisition of Kozilek in the MM event deck–Last I checked, Kozilek was specific to some sort of Legendary creature from a specific plane: an Eldrazi, no less.
The reprints just keep building up with little respect to rhyme or reason other than the secondary market’s price tag. The rules of engagement have clearly changed, or been thrown out all together. I suppose they were more like guidelines anyway (courtesy of Captain Barbossa, and what is he after if not but gold). Maybe I’m late to this party, but I think it needs to be specifically emphasized that there is nothing out there anymore that can reasonably be assumed safe from reprint other than the reserve list, and even that I would not bank my retirement on.
Wizards is like Putin. We keep wagging our finger and tsk tsk-ing them about this latest violation of trust, we say we won’t buy stuff from them anymore (because sanctions work)–then they grin sheepishly and pretend they won’t do it again and suddenly I’m staring at my playsets of Planar Chaos Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth and debating whether or not to use them as coasters when 2 days before I’d told someone “Sure, I’ll trade for your legendary set-specific land card” (OK, Urborg isn’t exactly set specific, but Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth certainly seemed like it).
My point is this: Sigmund’s article hits the nail on the head, and I think that people fail to remember that Wizards answers to Hasbro, and Hasbro answers to shareholders. At the end of the day, if putting Tarmogoyf into a green/black modern event deck will sell sealed product, then Tarmogoyf is going into a green/black modern event deck. We will complain about it, Wizards will pretend to be care, then they will take the money from the sales of the deck and use it to print U/R modern event decks with Vendillion Clique in it. I have little faith in the long-term value of my cards, and more importantly, I believe Wizards does not care about players as a whole as much as we all think it does. I’m admittedly jaded, having suffered several thousand dollars in intangible losses from Modern Masters’ crusade against the $5 casual card–which perhaps was my fault for not anticipating to the fullest extent imaginable–but as hindsight is 20/20, I won’t be holding Snapcaster Mages much longer…
I think Wes has a LOT of valid points and something all speculators should be considering. The old “rules for reprinting” that many of us viewed as sacrosanct were clearly inaccurate. While I am less “the sky is falling” than others, I do whole-heartedly believe that everything that can be reprinted must have that factored into one’s willingness to go deep on something. After all, there’s one major “benefit” to WoTC for reprinting…if they put it in a secondary product that doesn’t introduce it to a new format…then they don’t have to worry about “breaking” the format, as the card was already legal and now they are just going to drop the secondary price AND sell more product.
Wes,
This is a TERRIFIC comment, and it’s essentially a diatribe on Wizards’ latest strategies to drive sales for Hasbro. I try not to let it bother me, but in a way it kind of does. I joked on Twitter that I was thankful to WOTC for reprinting Polluted Deltas because I sold my ONS copies to dealers for $50 two years ago and repurchased them for $13.50. It worked out for me that time, but in general reprints just destroy value for so many people.
In light of this, I really do fear WOTC is seeking to gradually reprint everything they can over time. It’s a sensible business strategy – it’s like the whole story about boiling a frog by changing the temperature very gradually. If they reprint 1 $100 card at a time over the course of years, we won’t really notice that cards are all much cheaper and our collections less valuable. Of course, this is a paranoid view of things.
Net, I’m sticking with Reserved List and some safer foils and promos for now. Not going to put cash elsewhere for the time being unless I have a very specific and short-termed thesis.
The rule of place-names and reprints only applied to reprints in STANDARD, STORYLINE-FORWARDING EXPANSION sets. It *never* applied to core sets or supplemental products, and if you thought it did – well, I’m sorry you believed an obvious falsehood.
How far back do I have to go to show you that that “rule” you believed was some bullshit myth, concocted out of fantasy? *EVERY* core set since Revised has had setting-specific reprints. *EVERY* supplemental product, too. This is nothing new. There’s no rule being violated here because there never was a rule in the first place.
Do no discredit the impact Commander has on the market with regard to legacy cards. Those decks want dual lands too. They also love their foils.
I keep forgetting to mention Commander when I talk about Duals. Even more reason to hold onto those. Thanks for the reminder, Chad :-).
Great comments from everyone and a great article. I’m not one for long winded replies or comments, so short it is, but does this whole thing just boil down to diversification?
Simply put, wizards reprints most cards because its a game and some cards are just fun after all; like Crypt Ghast and Wurmcoil. The fact the anyone has 300 copies of one and 50 of the other is even hardly a thought for WOTC, I believe.
Plus there should not be any rhyme or reason for reprints, no patterns, no systems, just make a profitable card game. It just so happens, that a powerful card ends up being worth money. If it fits in a deck, is fun and is balanced, then so be it.
Yep, no conspiracy, just a great card game…hmmm conspiracy…I need to check those prices…
You certainly present a valid argument, Justin. I don’t think there’s a massive conspiracy to “get” speculators. If there is, they are certainly being subtle and seemingly random about it. It IS most likely they are just reprinting strategic cards to make the game fun and to make money. Then again, when something like Exploration shows up in Conspiracy or Mutavault/Thoughtseize in Standard, you do have to wonder. After all, who thought Thoughtseize was “fun” and had to be reprinted so more people could play it? These outliers are what often drives suspicion…
At the time they were making Theros, Thoughtseize was an absolute linchpin for the Modern format and reaching absurdly high prices for a “utility” card. It had to be reprinted to keep Modern viable. While Thoughtseize is abysmal to play against in Standard, it’s a very important “Pressure Valve” in Modern … the same way that Wasteland and Force of Will keep Legacy somewhat honest.
So you are suggesting, then, that Thoughtseize WAS reprinted solely based on price? If so, then this only further solidifies my approach to MTG Finance going forward.
They certainly didn’t do it because they thought it would make the format “more fun”