Look, I didn't know what to call this.

I had "Grand Prix New Jersey Prep" for a while, but I didn't want people to not click on it because they thought I was going to try and dispense Legacy advice. I think Punishing Jund is well positioned, but that's my opinion. I'm certainly not going to be able to substantiate that with testing data.

What am I reasonably going to be able to tell people about playing Legacy that they don't know? "Treasure Cruise is a good card, you guys." "Containment Priest is the real deal except it's not good against the best decks." Bah.

I considered going with "Grand Prix New Jersey Primer" but that sounds even more like I'm trying to help you guys build decks. I'd wager a lot of us are going but how many of us are actually playing?

I'm socially obligated to play a non-zero number of EDH games with people who read my articles and the plan is to spend at least part of Saturday on site, but hanging around a smelly convention center seems less than ideal when I could be eating steaks in Manhattan or trying to do an open mic or something infinitely more fun than dicking around in New Jersey. Playing Magic is cool, but since I don't want to play in the GP (I may still register to get the sleeves and mat) I don't want to give the impression that I will.

I wrote "prep" on purpose, though, let's make that clear. I want to talk about what could happen this weekend financially. We should think about what prices could do before they do that thing they could do, right? It's good to get out ahead of potential changes and in general get ourselves in the mindset. What's likely to happen? What's not likely to happen? Are the any opportunities to make money, pay less for singles than we might next week and in general not feel bad when we start reading articles on Monday?

I think the first thing we should do is talk about the event itself.

Grand Prix New Jersey 2014

Tournament Organizer - Star City Games

Location - New Jersey. Duh.

Format - Legacy Constructed

Artists - Jeff Menges, RK Post, Christopher Rush, Zack Stella, Jon Avon

Swag - 1 month SCG premium, Brainstorm Sleeves, Brainstorm Playmat, GP New Jersey 2014 Brainstorm deckbox, Foil promo Batterskull

All of these things are significant.

Tournament Organizer

Star City Games runs tournaments very well. This is going to give people a high degree of confidence in the event going smoothly and encourage people to show up. Not only that, they are going to give themselves primo buying and selling areas meaning they will be doing a lot of business.

When SCG does a lot of business at a GP, they tend to move the market. They have been known to raise buylist prices to get every copy of a card in the room, even to the point where there is arbitrage money to be made buying from other dealers at retail and selling to SCG.

Lots of attendance coupled with lots of buying power on SCG's behalf could have a profound impact on prices--although a repeat of last year is not anticipated as everything is inflated out of proportion right now and should normalize rather than jump again.

Location

New Jersey smells like farts, that's just science. There are fartier-smelling areas than Edison, though, and while the specific area is somewhat relevant (it's a one-hour train ride to Manhattan, for example, meaning you don't have to stay in New Jersey and be sad if you don't want to) the general area is very, very relevant.

He was wrong, but Aaron Forsythe predicted that the 2012 Grand Prix in Providence, Rhode Island would have more attendees than Grand Prix Las Vegas 2012. It seems ludicrous in hindsight, but at the time a lot of people in the community agreed with his assessment. If I'm not mistaken, Corbin Hosler bet a trip to Fogo de Chão or an equivalent churrascaria that Providence would exceed Vegas' attendance, and Corbin was even planning to go to GP Vegas but not Providence. Why?

The format seemed relevant--it was a team event and those are solid. The East Coast location also seemed good. Although it's not centrally located in the USA, it is in an area with a great population density and a short drive from many major metropolitan areas. Lots of people could easily make the trip without having to fly.

GP New Jersey this weekend has a lot in common with Providence. With VIP sold out and preregistration already at more than the total size of most North American Grands Prix, this could be huge for attendance. Huge attendance means a lot for card prices.

Lots of buying will get done but dealers are likely to spend all of their money the same as they always do. This will be a gigantic weekend for selling, though, and when dealers sell out of high-priced cards, they have to raise their buy prices to restock. If all of the major dealers end up picked clean, we could see buylist prices start to nudge up regardless of whether we see retail prices increase.

Format

Legacy Grands Prix don't come around very often. The last major Legacy GP saw prices on cards like Underground Sea and Rishadan Port double. There were a lot of factors that contributed to this, and I don't expect to see another price shift like that, but Legacy cards will be in high demand.

Last time a major Legacy event was on the heels of a Commander product release, we saw a mad dash for copies of True-Name Nemesis. While there won't be that much of a scramble for Containment Priest and Daretti, Scrap Savant this time around, I would out that stuff if I had it and buy in cheaper later.

I've also been advising people for months to wait for this weekend to sell or trade out of Legacy. Between friends who have both large Legacy collections and small children and are considering selling their cards because they can't play Legacy anymore, to people writing in to the podcast or my personal e-mail address, I have a lot of people poised to make moves. I am advising them to see what happens to prices after this weekend.

A price spike in Modern cards precipitated by Star City, especially in fetches, made Legacy suddenly a format people could trade into at the Legacy GP in Washington DC. But I don't see any indication that could happen again. The absence of a glut of people moving into Legacy won't have the same effect on prices and we'll see a gentle increase due to increased demand but not severely diminished supply.

I expect prices of some cards to go up this weekend, but being unable to predict which cards makes me tell people to hang onto everything. Nothing is likely go down sharply so if you can wait until after the event, why not do it?

If you're planning to go to the event, I would try and get people to trade their Standard stuff to you at buylist prices for Legacy stuff they need to play the event. If you have a retail out for the Standard stuff, this is a great way to make a decent percentage, especially if you target high spread cards that sell well. If not, smashing Legacy stuff into Modern stuff that has a bit more potential to grow is a good move as well.

Modern has a lot more events which means a lot more chances for some tech to catch on and be in high demand. I wouldn't trade away Reserved List Legacy stuff like dual lands, mind you, but stuff like Price of Progress, Cabal Therapy and Goblin Lackey would be good to turn into cards like Birthing Pod, and other Modern goodies with low reprint risk.

Artists

Getting cards signed is always a big deal, but SCG really went into the tank to get artists responsible for some important and iconic Legacy cards.

Jon Avon did the Unhinged basics everyone likes so much, and SCG offering the huge wall prints has made those more popular than ever. Personally, I think Unhinged lands aren't fit to sniff Unglued lands' farts, but SCG can influence culture and players seem to be on the Unhinged train. Foil Unhinged lands have never been more expensive and I expect people to want them signed. Random cards like Urborg and Green Sun's Zenith could be in demand, too.

Jeff Menges did older cards like Swords to Plowshares and Bazaar of Baghdad. I wouldn't sneeze at getting a Moat signed, either. While Bazaar isn't super relevant in Legacy because of how banned it is, I expect more than a few to get signed.

Swords is the real winner here. Beta swords keep going up and getting a set signed would be cool to some. It can hurt the resale value, but people who get cards signed tend to hang onto them, removing the copies from the pool and making them a bit more scarce.

RK Post illustrated everything, but he's also at everything. I think he does so many that there won't be a huge impetus to have him sign stuff. That said, his booth always has a long line despite there being tons of chances to meet him. Personally, I'm stoked that Reef Worm is such a popular card.

I bet he sells a few of these this weekend, and that sexy Brainstorm Brewery logo is on all of them. Awww yiss.

Christopher Rush has done Black Lotus, Lightning Bolt and a version of Brainstorm. That in and of itself is significant enough.

Zack Stella is the artist who painted True-Name Nemesis, a card that has slipped a bit but is still a major card in Legacy. It's probably the least fair fair card.

Matt Stewart is a big deal here. He illustrated the judge foil Mana Crypt, which isn't that important in Legacy due to how banned it is, but he also did the Judge Foil Force of Will. I expect that card to trade well this weekend as people who wanted them have waited until now to get them and the artist is at the event.

Swag

Everyone who signs up to play the main event gets a lot for their money:

This level of generosity has got to attract some people who were on the fence. Since SCG has been saying they predict they might see 6,000 people, it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't commission at least 6,000 of each of these things. The fact that they are predicting such a big event is great because big events matter.

My Predictions

I don't predict we'll see prices go as nuts as they did last year at DC. I think that some of the prices will be sticky, but I don't think $350 Underground Sea from Revised will be one of them.

It can't if Legacy is to continue as a format. Once people begin getting priced out, demand will fall and the prices will drop a bit. If it reaches an equilibrium where it makes sense to buy in at the lower price, we'll see more people buy in and prices will rebound. I think a large event and the price spikes in Modern staples moved the equilibrium point forever, but I don't think prices will stay at the apex and I bet they correct downward.

However, if that does happen, it won't be for a while after this event. Some cards are drifting downward.

I think Wasteland has room to grow but its current price may be close to equilibrium. Being uncommon probably hurts it, evidenced by other lands that spiked last year plateauing rather than coming down.

The price drop is visible, but less pronounced. GP Jersey could delay inevitable price decreases, although it's possible that it prompts a spike. We're seeing spikes in cards that are easier to get ahold of.

I don't think this is metagame-dependant because the Legacy format is too wide open. Certain staples are desirable, dealers could be trying to get stocked, and people might have just bought out a card that was a little too cheap for what it does. I bet Price of Progress doesn't stay $10, but I bet it's also never $5 again.

Keep that in mind this weekend. I think Price of Progress is the first in a line of multiple cards we'll see spike before Friday.

Have Fun!

If you're watching coverage, watch prices, too. I don't think anything will go nuts, but this weekend may be a better time to out certain cards than next week. I have a feeling some stuff could see bumps rather than sustained increases just from the sheer number of people buying and trading for Legacy cards in preparation for a huge GP. We don't get many chances to play Legacy on this scale, so it's going to be a pretty big deal.

I plan to be at the event though I don't know how much time I'll spend there. Since I found out you can buylist from home in your underwear, the impetus to buylist in person at a GP isn't as strong as it used to be. And no one wants to trade with a guy wearing a QS or Brainstorm Brewery t-shirt, so I mostly just go to these things to durdle. Still, I'll be looking for deals in every dealer case. With Legacy being so unpredictable, there may even be arbitrage money to be made if any buylists spike wildly.

I'll be back next week to talk about how many of these predictions came true. The next week will be critical, so let's all keep an eye on it.