I’m writing this as a follow-up to Sig’s excellent article on Monday giving a format-by-format breakdown of his plans after the huge Star City Games announcement last week.

I’ll start at the top. What particularly stood out to me is how bearish Sig was on almost all formats. That means he’s not particularly excited to invest in any of these formats right now, and doesn’t see a lot of growth in them going forward.

This struck a chord with me because I’ve noticed the same trend recently in my writing. Sure, we see some movement, but am I particularly excited to invest in any one thing right now? Is Standard worth it at all? Is Modern, with looming reprints? What about Legacy, and waning events?

When I wrote last month about how my strategy involved more targeting of foils because they’re safer from reprint, it’s a conclusion that went against my past history but one that it seems Sig has independently come to as well.

So what does it all mean? Is the grand run of Magic finance we’ve had over the past few years dead? Is there anything left to spec on? What will my articles look like if there are no good specs left?

The game is going stronger than ever, but there is definitely some doom and gloom on the financial side of things. What used to be predictable and profitable is now more of a crapshoot. The old standbys are falling to the wayside.

But it’s not all bad news, and I think there are a few ways to survive in this new world that is vulnerable to reprints at any time.

Hedging

In a sense, this covers everything else I’ll talk about today, but I want to start wide and then narrow in.

In a broad sense, hedging means taking positions that limit your risk. There are a few strategies I like as this relates to Magic.

One is the concept of partial selling. Suppose you bought into Forked Bolts at a dollar. Buylists currently sit around $2.50. Now, it’s certainly possibly the card continues to climb and $5 buylists are in the future. Of course, it’s also possible the new banlist update makes this card obsolete.

The way to hedge in this situation is to sell some of them now, and hold more for more later. In fact, this is what I did. I shipped 18 copies off to Troll and Toad, and those were enough to cover my initial investment. I still have another 20 or so left to hold and see if they go higher.

Another way to hedge is to trade into cards instead of buying in cash. If you’re interested in a new Standard spec (say something like the Prophet of Kruphix we all liked six months ago), trading other Standard cards into it rather than buying in cash will limit your risk. After all, if you traded $1 Standard rares for Prophets you’re building a position without risking much, whereas buying them for 50 cents cash each opens you up to more of a loss when you’re blown out by things like the Clash Pack reprint.

It also means that short-term specs, stuff like “next Standard season” are in many cases a better value proposition than simply holding onto “obvious” cards for 3-4 years.

Diversifying

There’s a reason this is such a buzzword when it comes to “real-life” investing. Nothing lowers your risk exposure more than spreading out your investments.

This is especially true in the current environment. I’m on record of being a big fan of the Modern format’s future with fetches here and probably Modern Masters 2 coming out in the summer, and I stand by that. Of course, the problem with increased interest from a new set means some things will be tanked by reprints. There’s also the unknown effect the lack of PTQ season will have on prices.

But I still like interest in an “index” of the format to grow. The only thing is to try and predict reprints, which is damn near impossible. So instead of going all-in on things that “seem” like good targets, I suggest spreading yourself out across a lot of targets.

For instance, a Birthing Pod reprint seems likely, but if it doesn’t happen there’s solid growth to be had. So maybe get a few Pods but back it up with some Voice of Resurgence or something else that stands to benefit along the same lines. There are no certainties here, but diversifying your holdings is the first step.

Focus on Less-Reprintable Cards

Very little falls into this category, of course, but one of the things I like a lot is foils. As I wrote about a few weeks ago, we have vastly fewer foil versions of cards out there than non-foils.

Other things include cards from the past two years or so with some upward potential like Abrupt Decay. Again, there’s no guarantee these won’t be in MM2, but it’s also possible the time cutout will be before then, so that gives you some time for it grow.

It is certainly a different world we live in today than we did even a few years ago when it comes to what is and isn’t a good investment. The rules haven’t slightly changed so much as they’ve been completely rewritten. But, as I repeat often, succeeding at Magic finance is all about adapting to the times and staying on your feet, and if you can continue to do that there’s still opportunity to be found.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter