Talk about terrific timing.

This morning I woke up without much of a clue as to what I’d write about. It was a traditional momentary writer’s block of sorts. Fortunately, the feeling was ethereal in nature thanks to the announcement made by Helene Bergeot live during the World Magic Cup.

And boy, was it a big one (though largely anticipated, I might add)…

Having the fortune of being the Monday columnist for Quiet Speculation, I have the freedom to share my perspectives first without the influence of of other writers.

So without further adieu, allow me to dive into my reaction and interpretation of this announcement.

Some Overall Feelings

We all knew this was coming, but it’s reassuring to finally have the announcement behind us. Now we can stop speculating and start reacting!

First, note the MSRP on these packs: $9.99. That’s a full $2 increase over the first Modern Masters set. Obviously Wizards recognized how successful their first Modern Masters product was, and that gave them full license to increase prices.

We can all complain until we’re blue in the face, but the reality is that the vast majority of players who enjoyed Modern Masters 1.0 did so at a cost above MSRP anyway. Increasing the price to $9.99 is only a reflection of reality.

Second, we received news that the three “TBD” Grand Prix in late Spring are all going to be MM2015 Limited events, and that there will be three languages printed for the set: English, Japanese and Simplified Chinese.

To me this has two very relevant effects: first, even Japanese foils won’t be safe from price hits. This is especially the case for cards printed at common, uncommon or rare with identical artwork and frame. For example, Japanese foil Emrakul, the Aeons Torn will probably drop in price right alongside English foils and nonfoils.

Second, I believe multiple languages means the print run will be larger. From a financial standpoint, Wizards has to justify paying their translators, alter print settings, and do whatever it is they have to do in order to support multiple languages. The higher MSRP is a start, but I think there will be more. We already saw the secondary market withstand the blow of a reprint set surprisingly well with MMA. My guess is that Wizards will push the envelope a little further with MM2015.

And three GP’s, including a Las Vegas GP that could be split into two massive events, means a lot more product opened at premier events.

Sell Sell Sell

Emrakul was a $50 card prior to this announcement. Even though it’s being printed at Mythic Rare in MM2015, I still believe the best action here is to sell excess copies.

The price of this guy has been stagnant for over six months now, and the downward pressure of a pending reprint will not help.

Some will make the argument “Tarmogoyf was a Mythic in MMA and it went up after being reprinted”. The thing is, Tarmogoyf is a much more ubiquitous card in eternal formats. The Goyf reprint catalyzed a wave of new interest in Modern and players were eager to finish their sets. After all, not only can Goyf be splashed into almost any deck with creatures, it usually is done as a four-of.

With Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, however, the story changes. Some decks don’t want to run a full playset. Most decks can’t run any. Therefore, the copies that will be opened will likely be thrown on eBay or placed in the trade binder so that people can acquire other cards they need for their decks. Time will tell if this theory pans out, but for now I maintain a “sell” rating on this Eldrazi.

Speaking of Eldrazi, is it possible we see others in MM2015? Absolutely. There’s no guarantee, but with prices on the other Eldrazi already flattening out, why bother taking on unnecessary risk by holding excess copies?

We also saw an image that corresponds to Etched Champion. While the creature itself doesn’t mean much from an MTG Finance standpoint, there could be reaching implications. If Metalcraft becomes a major keyword of MM2015, guess which card fits perfectly with such a set?

I’d sell these quickly if I were you.

The fact that MM2015 reaches through Scars of Mirrodin block means cards like Birthing Pod and Gitaxian Probe are also on the possibilities list.

Of course, the other cards that are in the forefront of my mind are the Zendikar fetch lands, which would fit in nicely as the rare land cycle of the set. I sold out of my extra Zendikar fetches a long time ago, but I did just replace the Marsh Flats with Windswept Heaths in my Modern deck. Perhaps I should bail on the Flats before it’s too late. Upside is minimal at this point, but a reprint at the rare slot could potentially drop prices by another 30-50%.

Why bother taking on that risk?

Hold or Buy

What cards are likely safe after all the dust settles?

The first one I can think of is Snapcaster Mage. The Innistrad rare cannot appear in MM2015 due to where Wizards made their cutoff. With so many Treasure Cruise strategies floating around, Snapcaster Mage seems well-primed to outperform in Modern and Legacy.

Even though he doesn’t quite work with the delve ability, he belongs in any deck that wants to play one mana cantrips. Just be cautious--I’m generally not a huge fan of buying deeply into $30 rares from large sets. A ton of copies exist, and it will take some real market movement to get this guy to appreciate in price profitably.

I’d make sure you have the copies you need, but would advocate more of a hold here than a buy unless you can find inexpensive copies. Then again, trading your Emrakuls and Mox Opals into Snapcaster Mages seems like a terrific strategy going forward.

All of the Return to Ravnica cards are also safe. This means shock lands and Abrupt Decay will likely turn higher. And if MM2015 sparks greater interest in the Modern format just like MMA did, then I could see shock lands moving measurably higher.

I really like trading into shocks right now, and Abrupt Decays are also fine pick-ups. Blue shocks are naturally the best ones to target.

Lastly, it’s worth noting that all the eternal gems of Avacyn Restored are also immune from this round of reprints. Griselbrand would be noteworthy here, except I think he’s already slated to be a promo of some sort. Avacyn, Angel of Hope, on the other hand, is not likely to drop in price any time soon.

But if I had to make a recommendation on what to pick up in trade, I’d start with Restoration Angel and Entreat the Angels. Both of these white cards are well off their peaks.

Wrapping It Up

We now have five months of speculation, rumors, spoilers, and further speculation around what’s to come. This column is merely an initial reaction to the news of Modern Masters 2015 Edition. Given that I heard this information only two hours prior to writing the article, I know opinions will shift over time.

My greatest piece of advice to you is to pay very close attention to the chatter on Twitter and the QS forums. These two places will be an excellent source of news, but they’ll also reveal how others in the game are reacting to this announcement. It’s likely many will have differing opinions, and some may be 100% correct. Only time will dictate how things unfold.

In the meantime, my attitude is that MM2015 will have a larger print run and potential reprints--especially commons (e.g. Gitaxian Probe, Lightning Bolt) and uncommons (e.g. Inquisition of Kozilek)--will be unsafe to sit on. Begin moving your excess copies now so you don’t have to panic-sell on the news and you’ll protect yourself from the downside.

Will some cards go up in value after seeing reprint in MM2015? Possibly. But only the truly ubiquitous staples in multiple formats will maintain that privilege. Anything else will only drop under this new supply pressure.

Being the risk averse person I am, and given the nature of my investment goals, I am conservatively moving forward under this strategy.

…

Sigbits

• Star City Games has made immediate notice of Chalice of the Voids price increase. They’ve upped their nonfoil copies to nearly $8 and their foil copies are $30 (Mirrodin) and $20 (Modern Masters). Every single copy is sold out.
• Not everyone will like the call, but I’ve observed a recent bump on Darksteel copies of foil Trinisphere. The card recently bumped slightly higher on eBay, and Star City Games has just two MP copies in stock for $10. I don’t think this card jumps like Chalice of the Void did, but I don’t think it goes down from there either. Nonfoils have also been moving lately, which may have missed many speculators’ radar.

• Star City Games discounted their Standard cards during this December sale. Included in this sale are Polluted Delta and Windswept Heath. Delta is sold out at $14.58 and Heath is sold out at $12.71. This tells me demand for these fetches is definitely strong, and prices may be bottoming as we speak... especially if there’s a sudden surge in Modern interest!