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Greetings, Discombobulators!
Let's talk about price spikes, why they happen and why they don't happen. Let's also have a disclaimer and then repeat it so we don't forget it. Ready for the disclaimer?
I didn't buy any copies of Kuldotha Forgemaster and I don't care on a personal level.
I realize that seems like a bit of a non-sequitur but before I explain, I'm going to repeat it, in a larger font because, and it's the coolest thing, I get all sorts of font and typeface controls when I compose these articles and I can do whatever I want, within reason. Also emphasis.
I didn't buy any copies of Kuldotha Forgemaster and I don't care on a personal level.
I need you to keep this in mind when you read this article. I don't want anyone thinking "He's just salty that his spec didn't pan out," because, and I feel like I can't stress this enough, I didn't buy any copies of Kuldotha Forgemaster and I don't care on a personal level. I really, truly just want to figure out what the hell happened.
What the Hell Happened?
That's easy. Kuldotha Forgemaster is a very good card in a few decks. Is it broad enough to be considered "non-fringe"? I certainly think so. Using "Forgey"--I'm really hoping this nickname sticks but I'll need everyone's help on this. Use the hashtag #forgey4prez--to tinker for a Blightsteel Colossus won games in Scars Standard.
Forgemaster is no stranger to 100 card decks either, and his appeal is only going to spread with decks using Daretti, Scrap Savant being described using terms like "unfair" and "brutal" and "I don't care if you paid for the pizza, if you play that deck one more time, I'm going to kick you in the penis."
But all of that is secondary to the fact that Forgey was used as a four-of in a MUD deck. Specifically, the MUD deck that Joseph Santomassino used to get Top 8 of an event. That event? GP Edison.
Top 8 Is Hard
Rull hard. GP Edison was particularly hard. Basically, you have to finish well enough to Top 24 an SCG Open just to make Day 2 of GP Edison, and then you had to play that well a second day. GP Edison was one of the largest Grands Prix ever and it was a brutal, two-day-long meatgrinder.
You want to know how brutal? Everyone 7th-16th place had the exact same record. 8th place finished 0.1% above 9th in Opponent Match Win percentage.
We have always acknowledged that Top 8 is a big deal and a big accomplishment (sometimes to such an extent that we as deck analysts make a fatal mistake of ignoring the 9th-11th place decks despite them having the same record as Top 8 usually and sometimes containing interesting tech).
However, Top 8 seems like such a standard achievement that sometimes we lose sight of the scope. Top 8 of a Booster Draft is not the least bit impressive. Top 8 of an SCG Legacy open with 200 people is impressive, but not quite as impressive as a Top 8 at a 4,000 person Legacy GP.
Why do I bring up SCG Opens?
Remember this nonsense? Despite being a known deck for years and despite having spiked to $10 and traveled back down to $5 over the course of a year while being EDH playable the entire time, a Food Chain plus Misthollow Griffin deck got Top 8 of a 200 person SCG Legacy Open. This was perfect justification for Food Chain to quadruple overnight and stay above $15 for the past 6 months.
The price is sticky but it's coming down slowly but surely. Do I think Food Chain is a $5 card? No, but it's not a $20 card either. Its Top 8 was poor justification for a price increase which was likely the result of an orchestrated or hype-driven buyout rather than true demand. "It's good in EDH" was the standard justification after the fact parroted on social media.
It's crap. I don't know which is the truth, that Food Chain should have gone down less after a Top 8 of an insignificant event or Kuldotha Forgemaster should have gone up more after a Top 8 at a very significant event where other prices were moving and everyone was paying attention. Both? Either?
What did Forgemaster even do?
Wow. It tripled. I guess I can retire and move to Boca Raton, now.
Honestly, when we're dealing with prices scraped from TCG Player, cards under $2 are tricky. With so much variance in what sellers charge for shipping, it's really hard to get an accurate picture of a card's actual price. $0.50 versus $1 for shipping on a $20 card is less significant than $0.50 versus $1 shipping on a $0.50 card. Did Forgemaster's price go up? Yeah, it's impossible to say it did not. But not very precipitously at all.
You know what did go up precipitously?
This stupid card. The Foils went to $9 despite being available in Shards block foil packs and being bulk last week. The Jeskai Ascendancy combo deck keeps evolving in Modern, and now it's evolved to not have to play any green for mana dorks with Faerie Conclave and Fatestitcher to give you mana.
These are not cards to compare to Forgemaster, necessarily. Right now I'm making a list of things that happened.
How is Forgemaster Like Food Chain?
Both cards are rare, both are four-ofs in a Legacy deck and don't see a ton of play outside of Legacy with the exception of EDH where both cards are a staple. A ton of artifact-based strategies utilize Forgemaster as the ultimate Tinker on feet and Food Chain is cheating with cards like Maelstrom Wanderer and Prossh, Skyraider of Kher.
Also, the insane spike potential of both cards should have been attenuated by the fact that neither deck was exactly unknown when they got that Top 8. People had known about Food Chain for years, it was playable in EDH the whole time and its price still went down. MUD wasn't exactly a surprise, either. It was almost as if the Top 8 finish validated the deck in people's eyes, or reminded them about it. Either way, this was not groundbreaking tech.
How is Forgemaster Better Than Food Chain?
It gets played in more decks. Decks with Tezzeret, MUD decks and some (Tier 37) Modern decks run it. Food Chain's not exactly narrow, but it is Modern-ineligible which narrows its upside to an extent.
Also, the buy-in price on Forgemaster was much lower. Buying in on bulk rares with upside is a no-brainer. Dropping a lot of cash on a $5 card that has spent the last 18 months declining in price after the last time everyone bought in on hype alone (that time it was the spoiling of Misthollow Griffin) is a riskier proposition. Buying Forgemaster seemed way safer.
How is Forgemaster Worse Than Food Chain?
It's new. Food Chain is old and not as available. Copies came out of the woodwork last time it spiked which concentrated copies in the hands of dealers, meaning the second time it spiked, you were less likely to find them in a bulk rare box at a local store. Forgemaster is everywhere. Scars of Mirrodin sold so much more than Mercadian Masques (one of the worst sets ever) it isn't funny. It's been a decade since anyone played Food Chain Goblins, but copies migrated to dealers, making the possibility of someone discovering copies in bulk binders even more remote.
The Food Chain deck also looked silly and that made people buy four copies "just in case" they wanted to play the deck some day. I think that's a great way to flush $40-$80 down the turlet, but if Magic players behaved rationally where finance was concerned, I'd be out of a job. Food Chain is older and scarcer and lots of people still playing have Forgemaster in their crap rare binder and also weren't alive during Masques block.
Also, if it weren't for Tropical Island, the most expensive card in the Griffins deck is Emrakul. It's not exactly budget, but it's doable and you can probably get away with Breeding Pool since you're a combo deck and not aiming to go long. You may opt for Force of Will but the point is, the MUD manabase costs more than the Griffins deck just about. MUD is also harder to pilot and less fun.
How is Forgemaster Like Fatestitcher?
It kind of isn't? They're both recent cards and both are...not mythic? I mostly used Fatestitcher as an example of a recent extremely precipitous increase. It's super unfair to compare these two cards in a way that isn't favorable to one card or the other. Observe.
How is Forgemaster Better Than Fatestitcher?
Let's see--it's rare, first of all. Rares should have more upside than uncommons, all things being equal. I think that's fair to say. Fatesticher is available all over. It was bulk until last week. Forgemaster was an odd "bulk but playable" rare but it still had upside and upside on a rare should be greater than upside on an uncommon. Fatestitcher only went up to $3, but that was because it went from a dime to $3. Fatestitcher won't end up 30 times what it is now, but the upside in terms of dollars is higher.
Fatestitcher's price can't possibly hold, by the way, because people are pulling them out of bulk right now. A Forgemaster spike is going to be easier to sustain if it happens.
How is Forgemaster Worse Than Fatestitcher?
It didn't come out of nowhere. This was a known card in a known deck, and its EDH playability didn't do much to keep it above bulk status. Its circumstances have changed some since the weekend it was shown on camera, the Daretti deck dropped and is ruining lives. The card has a good home, which is good.
Fatesticher went from trash to treasure and people were scrambling to get copies. That doesn't make for good long-term viability, but it does explain why there was such a precipitous spike in the price. Forgemaster wasn't really eligible for such a thing, but that doesn't make it less of a good spec, merely a less flashy one.
Also, more people likely watched Worlds coverage and paid attention to a flashy new deck lots of pros were on and heard how players at the event were scrambling for Fatestitchers. It's less exciting that a Tier 2 deck made a Top 8 and also Daretti is pretty good. There was way more hype around Fatestitcher and as we know, hype is a good thing for short-term price increases.
What Do We Make of All of This?
I think the Forgemaster showing up in a Top 8 wasn't super exciting. I think its EDH playability will be something pundits point to after it spikes as a factor that was surely always one of the major reasons it went up, but which never seems to make a recent card go up on its own. Chas Andres tweeted about the card as did Douglas Johnson, and while it's good that financiers were paying attention, it is harder for a card with 900 copies on TCG Player to get cleared out than a card with 90 copies.
The real question is not why Forgemaster didn't go up but rather whether it will. Is being a four-of in a deck that does well and has cross-format applicability not enough to make a card worth more than $1.50 anymore? Are all spikes buyout and hype-based and no one bothered with this one?
What I do know is this. Forgemaster is a four-of in a Legacy deck that can Top 8 more often than once every three years, something Food Chain can't claim. It's a key card in one of the most popular new EDH decks, something people are only starting to build. It does something that a card banned in Legacy does, albeit at a much higher cost. It has a big butt which helps it block and it can kill them in a pinch. It's reusable. It's a great card.
Is it due for a price correction, though? I would say yes, for all of those reasons, if only because the copies available now will get bought up eventually and probably not go lower just because things have changed and it doesn't make sense for it to be bulk anymore. Do I have anything else making me feel good about the future of the card's price? One more graph.
I only bought a couple sets of Forgemaster. The cost of entry was very low, and the card definitely has power. For the reasons you mentioned, it may not be a $10 card for a long time. But At $1 each, you could do much worse with your money. Chances are pretty good this card isn’t relevant in Modern, so it should be immune from MM2015 reprint. So why not throw $10 at it and wait a few months to see if it gains traction. We all know it only takes one overzealous individual or establishment to catalyze a buy out!
I’m worried about a reprint on this one in MM2015, so I don’t mind throwing a few bucks at the nonfoils, but I’d stay away from foils for now. I know it’s not relevant in Modern, but neither were the Kamigawa Dragons. They may include this because it’s a fun rare to have in the Metalcraft/artifact strategies, if that’s a thing this time around. Not sure, but we’ll see what happens!
Only in mtgfinance is a chart like forgemaster’s described as “flat performance.”
I bought a bunch of non-foils at under a buck (shipped) and I’m happy to have done so.
If the price increase is less than the variance between shipping prices on TCG Player, yes, the performance is flat. If your entire gain is negated by fees, you really didn’t do all that well. Not only that, if it only goes up a small amount, you’re out is to buylist which cuts 60% off the retail price plus you have to pay shipping again to send to a buylist. Yes, the graph moved. But we need the graph to move enough that we can actually make money without having to buy thousands of copies.
A few things:
1. While Fatestitcher and Forgemaster both happened in reasonable proximity, it is a bad time of year for card prices.
2. Fatestitcher appears in a “broken” deck, whereas Forgemaster appears in a “bad” deck. There’s some differentiation here based on the perceived power level of the decks and the nature of their strategies.
Food Chain (much like Fatestitcher) was a hot, new, potentially broken thing to a lot of people when they saw it earlier in the year. There is a big difference in player perception behind a Fist of the Suns-style “do broken fun things” deck and some awful grindy prison thing. Similarly, Pox cards didn’t blow up after Reid Duke played Pox to beat True-Name last year.
This dynamic is also why Travis Woo decks blow up. It’s not Travis – it’s what he’s doing.
“Both cards are rare, both are four-ofs in a Legacy deck and don’t see a ton of play outside of Legacy with the exception of EDH where both cards are a staple”.
Food Chain and Forgemaster are far from EDH staples, unless your definition of that is being an auto-include in Prossh and Daretti, respectively, and for Forgemaster, potentially (but not always) in other artifact-centric decks.
Considering current buylist prices (28 @ $1.20 for T &T, 12 @ $0.82 for ABU, and 19 @$0.80 for CK), you stood to make a decent profit even if you just bought them in bulk in the $0.25 range and flipped them to buylists, especially if you had other stuff to send out anyways to cover the cost of the shipping.
Forgemaster also sees Vintage play which – however small an effect it might have – should also help prop up the price of the foil.
You can’t buy a rare for $0.25
You most certainly can…I’ve purchased bulk rares from local players repeatedly.
You know what I meant. You can’t buy a rare for a quarter online in response to a tournament result nor can you buy locally in the kind of quantity you really need to buy in to be able to benefit from a modest price bump like Forgemaster got. Making $20 on a spec seems like a real waste of being smart.
Except you could’ve done this exact scenario with Kuldotha Forgemaster (and probably any other rare that is currently bulk or close to it, since there’s probably more copies available to purchase out there). There was still a window both after Daretti was spoiled and after it Top 8’d Edison when you still could’ve picked several copies of it up at that price at sites like TCG, Cardshark and Amazon as well, or probably nabbed a bunch by throwing up a buylist on MOTL.
FWIW, I’m of the opinion that this is more of a “spec because Daretti” scenario than a “spec because Top 8” scenario, considering MUD’s been a know quantity in Legacy (and Vintage) for a long time and has randomly top 8’d events in the past with little to no movement. Unless of course everyone is switching to this deck in Legacy to metagame against Delver and Burn, because it seems like a sweet choice.
And how long should I have sat on Forgemaster while I waited for it to get on camera in a format people pay attention to? Forgemaster is played in every artifact-based EDH deck just about and it was the price it was. Getting played in one more isn’t going to make it spike. EDH demand is relevant for very rare cards, very old cards and very new cards (which I guess is the “very rare” category). EDH play is something bad financiers use to justify a card spiking after the fact. It takes a lot of people buying in to make a card spike and that isn’t going to happen with Daretti being spoiled otherwise Trash for Treasure would have gone through the roof instead of not moving at all. We’re past the point in MTG Finance where cards spike for entirely rational reasons. One Travis Woo makes more cards spike than 10,000 Darettis.
Apparently you don’t remember all the EDH-only cards that went up in price when Nekusar was spoiled: Forced Fruition spike, buyouts on Judge foil Wheel of Fortune and Phyrexian Tyranny, much smaller gains on stuff like Breathstealer’s Crypt and Teferi’s Puzzle Box that you still could’ve profited on had you specced it like you should’ve specced Kuldotha Forgemaster (assuming you were interested in getting in on Forgemaster).
EDH certainly drives prices on cards, it’s why Aggravated Assault and Savage Beating have been steadily creeping up, why the internet has been cleared out of foils of all the extra attack step cards (two aforementioned, Seize the Day, etc.) and Slobad.
Aggravated Assault and Savage Beating went up because Woo brewedd with Narset in Modern. Nekusar made a lot of older cards go up, which I accounted for, I think. Forced Fruition was the newest card the really moved in price. Even Nekusar decks weren’t enough to make a newer card like Reforge the Soul move a ton.
Aggravated Assault isn’t legal in Modern, I think you mean Waves of Aggression, which I will agree spiked 100% because of Woo (and why I left it off the list specifically), though it may have seen steadier gains eventually as people picked up copies for their Narset EDH. I only remember Waves from Woo’s initial list, but if Savage Beating was also in there than I stand corrected.
Meanwhile Proteus staff is older than those cards and better in Narset and other EDH decks and it is much flatter.
Also, don’t worry about saying stuff like “I stand corrected”. This isn’t an argument, we are all trying to figure out how the new paradigm will affect prices.
Proteus Staff is another one that has been creeping up, and looks like the foils had a small spike. While obviously excellent in Narset, it’s a niche card that you really have to build around to get maximum value out of it (I vaguely remember some Talrand, Intet, and/or Tibor & Lumia and Melek storm builds that made use of it).
Agree with this. Forgemaster has been inching upward all year. The top 8 was a nice catalyst, but this was a buy primarily because of edh and casual demand.
I think going from “unplayed” to “played in a popular deck” in EDH matters. Going from “played quite a bit” to “played quite a bit more” matters significantly less. We’re all trying to make sense of what happened here.
I don’t think many people look at the Forgemaster deck and say “that looks like fun, I want to play that”, so demand doesn’t increase much. The Fatestitcher deck looks like fun, so demand actually increases as people actually want to build the deck. The ginders that only play to win will evaluate the Forgemaster deck as a flash in the pan, while I think the Fatestitcher deck looks like a deck with more legitimate staying power as it builds upon an already powerful archtype more so than the Forgemaster decks.
Also, as you stated, hot new tech excites more than known quantity gaining a top 8 performance.
I would just like to say that Forgemaster + Daretti’s ultimate was literally unfair…and felt amazing. Never underestimate the power of a tutor that brings a card directly onto the battlefield
Daretti’s entire kit is stupid powerful and I love using his emblem with Mindslaver.
> Remember this nonsense? Despite being a known deck for years and despite having spiked to $10 and traveled back down to $5 over the course of a year while being EDH playable the entire time, a Food Chain plus Misthollow Griffin deck got Top 8 of a 200 person SCG Legacy Open. This was perfect justification for Food Chain to quadruple overnight and stay above $15 for the past 6 months.
You’re all welcome.
That was my first spec as a QS insider
It was the first deck I am proud to call my baby.
Mud has Candelabra. If you don’t have them then you’re not gonna go out of your way to get Forgey. The recent increase in price is more likely from speculators. Not edh or Legacy
The list I linked runs 0 candelabras….