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Insider: MTG Stock Watch 12/14/14

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Welcome back readers! Here we are at another "bi-week", which means it's time to dig back into the movers and shakers of the MTG finance realm. As usual we'll start with our "penny stocks," cards that began the week under $5 and had a good amount of movement.

Penny Stocks

#1 Imperious Perfect (+43.8%, Duel Decks: Anthologies) - This one is likely due to the fact that DD: Anthologies is supposed to be a more limited run. While we tend to see Duel Decks with several printings, my LGS owner told me that he ordered the maximum number he was allowed to (15) from his distributor. This implies that unlike Sorin vs. Tibalt we're unlikely to see them rotting on shelves for several months as they are pretty chock full of value.

It helps that they hit before Christmas and from what I've heard (from the same store owner) there's a lot of interest in them from the "muggles" (I couldn't resist) shopping for their favorite planeswalking relative.

All that being said, I'm surprised that of all the cards in the Anthologies set Perfect saw such a big jump, especially given that it just showed up in the Green commander decks.

imperious perfect

#2 Fatestitcher (+23.8%) - This one isn't surprising. The addition of Fatestitcher (and the elimination of green entirely from the Jeskai Ascendancy combo decks) was a really good one. It gives you card advantage (in that you actually want to discard it to the Ascendancy trigger and/or mill it with Thought Scour), has haste most of the time, and is out of Abrupt Decay range.

Granted, this change eliminates the Glittering Wish package and means you have to draw into the Ascendancy and currently run no ways to tutor it up; but you get more solid mana and don't play clunky mana dorks that you don't really want to draw the turn you're going off.

fatestitcher

#3 Whip of Erebos (+22.3%) - This Standard staple is finding a home in both Abzan and Sultai reanimator decks (as well as a sideboard slot or two in regular Abzan Midrange). It obviously pairs well with 187 creatures (those with ETB effects for the newer players) and the static lifelink to all your creatures can really turn games around quickly.

I called this one last year when I thought it would be good and was easily worth the $1 price tag. Now that Theros isn't being opened much anymore, barring another reprint (as I count being an intro deck rare as a reprint), it will likely be a $4-5 card.

whip of erebos

And a special note for QS's own Gislasa....

Indiana-Jones-5-Whip

....Never bet against the Whip.

#4 Savage Beating (+15.6%) - As I mentioned weeks ago, Narset is a really broken commander. While any cards that give you multiple attack steps belong in that deck, the ones with single printings have the most potential. She is definitely this year's Nekusar.

Similar to Nekusar, she's broken enough that revealing her as your commander will often quickly result in an everyone-vs.-you style of game, so I won't be surprised if we start seeing the cards that spiked off her to taper off as players begin dismantling their decks after drawing the ire of their local play group (I know I did).

savage beating

#5 Sidisi, Brood Tyrant (+14.7%) - With the recent success of Sultai Reanimator in Standard, this mythic was likely to see a bit of a bounce back after a pretty tremendous (though expected) fall. She pairs really well with the previously mentioned Whip of Erebos and her biggest problem is being weak to Lightning Strike.

I wouldn't hold on to copies long-term though as the massive amount of Khans that has been (and is still being) opened will keep all the non-fetches deflated.

sidisi

Blue Chip Stocks

#1 Volcanic Island (+4.81%) - Not surprisingly the #1 most commonly played dual land in Legacy shows strong positive growth. The utter dominance of both Jeskai Stoneblade and U/R Delver variants in the format (as well as a recent resurgence in RUG Delver, brought about by my friend Daniel who took 2nd at SCG Atlanta) has really pushed the tempo strategy to the forefront of the format.

volcanic island

#2 Taiga (-3.81%) - Again we see the continued downward trend of most of the dual lands which are still receding from their original spikes back in April/May. This is just further evidence that this spike was market manipulation and that in fact the true market can't endure these prices for duals. It doesn't help that poor Taiga (which was the backbone land of Zoo decks) has almost no home in tier 1 Legacy strategies (outside of a one-of in Jund).

taiga

#3 Tropical Island (-3.04%) - Well as much as my friend Daniel wants RUG to have a resurgence, this pretty large drop in price for the key land of RUG (because let's be honest Nimble Mongoose and Tarmogoyf are the real threats of the deck) shows that despite a minor resurgence in Top 8s the deck still has a long way to go if it ever hopes to reach its previous dominance of the format.

tropical island

#4 Show and Tell (-2.87%) - Sneak and Show decks have really taken a back seat as the blue-red deck of choice for Legacy. If your only four dual lands are Volcanic Islands, you'll likely see more success with U/R Delver than Sneak and Show (which has a hard time implementing its game plan against decks packed with counterspells and cheap/efficient threats.

show and tell

#5 Dark Confidant (-2.08%) - The demise of Jund as a tier 1 strategy in Modern is all but consummated, due to the banning of Bloodbraid and Deathrite--and the fact that the power of Thoughtseize and targeted discard just doesn't cut it when your opponent can draw three cards for one blue mana. This once-proud staple has been sitting on the sidelines recently, and unless a banning/unbanning occurs, I don't expect him to see any resurgences.

dark confidant

Value Stocks

I'm still on Khans fetchlands right now, especially Polluted Deltas. The previously most expensive fetchland can now be had for $15. The fact that blue-black currently doesn't have a strong home in Standard or Modern means that these are likely near their price floor and they have slowly been trending upward.

Right now, I would mostly focus on Polluted Deltas, followed closely by Bloodstained Mire and Wooded Foothills, as they are the cheapest and have a home in Modern Jund, which is currently on the downswing. However, Jund is the type of deck that doesn't stay down for long and any changes to the banned list could easily have it jump back to tier 1.

Currently Standard is propping up the price of Windswept Heath (though Modern Junk is likely also a factor). Flooded Strand is currently in high demand thanks to finding plenty of homes in both Standard and Modern. My ultimate plan on these is to pick up as many Deltas as I can and eventually swap them into some Strands to diversify.

I am honestly not sure what the call is on foil Khans fetches. I think picking up the non-blue ones for around $40 isn't a terrible play (3.5-4x their regular version), but the fact that the blue ones are close to $80 (or 5x their regular price) may imply that there is a bit of room for them to trend downward, though long-term I think they will see strong growth. The biggest concern with these is that since they are foils of reprints, any additional reprints will likely deflate the price of these foils (though not affect the original set print foils).

This is a risk-vs.-reward play that you as an investor have to decide if you're comfortable with. The good news is that because these fetches are still in print and the set is being opened in record amounts, any reprints are likely a few years off.

Growth Stocks

Wow...two different averages jumped 15%. New Phyrexia and Worldwake (both of which had previously seen some big drops) both saw tremendous jumps (though to be fair the two previous weeks Worldwake had dropped by 18%).

The announcement of MM2 hasn't seemed to dissuade any sealed box investors, even with the the knowledge that everything pre-Innistrad is fair game. Though I imagine for Worldwake at least, the fact that the most desirable card in that set is banned in Modern (and thus excluded from MM2 reprinting) means it's a safer investment. The spoiling of Emrakul in MM2 will likely cause a continued downward trend for the Rise of the Eldrazi boxes, as most people expect the other Eldrazi to show up in the set as well.

Week of 12/14/14

Box Most Recent Completed Auction Second Most Recent Third Most Recent Fourth Most Recent New Average Average comparison
Innistrad $199.99 $202.50 $192.85 $225.00 $205.09 -3.28%
Dark Ascension $100.00 $97.00 $120.95 $103.50 $105.36 5.82%
Avacyn Restored $129.95 $134.95 $129.99 $144.95 $134.96 3.91%
Scars of Mirrodin $168.00 $167.00 $169.95 $197.50 $175.61 -0.85%
Mirrodin Besieged $159.99 $144.95 $167.00 $168.45 $160.10 -1.14%
New Phyrexia $359.89 $349.95 $344.99 $339.99 $348.71 15.04%
Zendikar $455.00 $485.00 $575.00 $539.99 $513.75 -0.24%
Worldwake $698.99 $698.99 $715.00 $700.00 $703.25 15.78%
Rise of the Eldrazi $584.99 $476.00 $584.99 $521.07 $541.76 -1.38%

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