Are you a Quiet Speculation member?
If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.
A little more than a week ago the second Modern Masters set was officially announced. The set, formally named Modern Masters 2015 (MM2015), will be released at the end of May 2015 with no less than three simultaneous Grand Prix around the world to celebrate the event. MM2015 will also be released on MTGO, a week after the paper version.
Besides Etched Champion and Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, the other 247 cards of the set are still unknown a this point. It may take several more months before we know more about potential reprints and the themes of the set.
A Lot of Uncertainty
MM2015 will contain only reprints of cards from Eight Edition to New Phyrexia. M10, M11, Zendikar and Scars of Mirrodin blocks are added compared to MMA. That's a lot of potential juicy cards.
A direct consequence of the above is that no card from Innistrad, Return to Ravnica or Theros blocks, nor from M12, M13 or M14, will be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015--giving us a comfortable space for speculations.
Additionally, we don't know yet if cards from MMA will be reprinted in MM2015. Nothing says it's possible, nothing says it isn't. Despite being in Modern Masters, Tarmogoyf got more expensive after the release of the set and is still the most expensive card in the Modern format. Could Tarmogoyf be in MM2015? If one of the goals of Modern Masters editions is to make Modern more accessible with cheaper cards, then Tarmogoyf should definitely be in.
Current Modern Prices
Every time a card rises above 20 Tix it is mentioned as a must-reprint in a future Modern Masters set, or any other set for the matter. With the shocklands and more recently Thoughtseize and Chord of Calling, WotC clearly demonstrated that reprints in Standard sets is an option to decrease prices in Modern. However the list of expensive, or expensive-to-be, cards is still quite long and not all of them can be in MM2015.
How many cards are we talking about? I took a look a the current most expensive cards in Modern and here is what it looks like without the cards already reprinted in MMA and without the sets excluded from MM2015.
Most Expensive Modern Cards
These are the cards that have been consistently around and above 20 Tix for the last twelve months at least. How many of them are in MM2015?
Pricy Modern Cards
Below is a list of cards that have been mostly valued between 10 and 20 Tix. If some of them may have dipped below 10 Tix, they are likely to pass this price limit again in the near future, especially if they don't appear in MM2015.
Below are common Modern contenders, some of which have reached 10 Tix, some of which have been on the sideline for many months now. Many of them are on an average upward trend. This includes mythics, rares, uncommons and commons that are likely to cross the 10 Tix bar in the next two years if not reprinted.
These lists give you an idea of what money cards could be in MM2015, and there's plenty others that should also be named here.
There's definitely a lot of options for what could be in MM2015. Are we going to get a rare land cycle? The filters lands? The WWK manlands? The titan cycle as mythics? Etched Champion is there; does it mean more metalcraft cards such as Mox Opal? Emrakul is there too--will he come with more Eldrazi stuff?
At this point, and as long as we don't have most of the spoilers, it is very futile to try to speculate, both with words and Tix, on potential reprints in MM2015. On the other hand, it is not early enough to talk about what is not going to be in MM2015. There's plenty to say and there's no need to guess.
Dealing With Your Modern Cards Now
If you are like me you probably have several dozen Modern positions that are as many potential reprints. It will still take several months before we get more spoilers from MM2015 and we should not have a better idea of what's in this set until March or April. This leaves us enough time to find a decent exit for our Modern investments.
The good news is we have the perfect event coming up for exiting our positions with a good profit--the Modern Pro Tour in Washington DC next February. This is when I intend to sell most of my Modern positions. I'm counting on good coverage of different types of decks to pump as many cards as possible.
Besides the Pro Tour, any decent opportunity between now and March is a good opportunity. I will take no risk and will sell every card threatened by a reprint in Modern Masters 2015. Considering what happened with MMA, I want to have my hands as free as possible to invest in reprinted staples when prices get very low during the first weeks of drafting online.
A Lot of Certainty as Well
For us speculators there's at least one major piece of news here--the sets that are not going to be in MM2015. M13, M14 and mostly Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks contain a decent amount of Eternal-playable cards. Knowing that Modern cards from these sets are not going to be massively reprinted within the next two years represent an excellent investment opportunity.
I know that Liliana of the Veil could have been, or still could be, in a core set despite being reprinted in paper as a promo for players who play a regional PTQ. This doesn't entirely close the door for reprints in M16 but I think chances are too small and for so many potential cards that this possibility won't impact how I plan my investments with Modern staples from M13, M14 and Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks.
On average, and with the exception of MMA cards that dipped recently thanks MMA drafts, Modern prices are still fairly flat or low. Focusing on the sets excluded from MM2015 is what you want to do now. I have myself reinforced my positions the past week and will keep doing so this week. Keep in mind that these cards have two years of growth in front of them. Lets see what our options are.
M13 and M14
Who would have bet in October 2012 that Omniscience would be the most expensive card in M13 two years later? No reason to believe the blue enchantment will get cheaper any time soon. Seeing zero play in Modern, Omniscience is nonetheless at an all-time high. Casual and Legacy are the only price drivers here. I'm not really a fan of buying cards that just hit a new record high but I would take the opportunity to buy next time it dips.
In M13, here are the cards I would keep an eye on and consider buying in addition to Omniscience.
In M14, these are the cards we have been already targeting for redemption. The price of many of these cards has gone up, but others, such as Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze, are actually cheaper than two months ago. The ooze seems like a great investment at the moment.
Innistrad block
Two of the most iconic cards of these last years--Snapcaster Mage and Liliana of the Veil--are from Innistrad. Besides these two, Innistrad block is also full of staples in one or more eternal formats. Check this rather impressive list and try to imagine what their price could be in two years.
And I'm not even mentioning the other ISD lands, Faithless Looting, Thought Scour, Olivia Voldaren, Gravecrawler, Vexing Devil, Terminus and plenty others. Avacyn Restored will probably be the most expensive set in Modern once MM2015 hits, even more expensive than Future Sight.
Return to Ravnica block
The shocklands are bound to gain value over time. Not equally and not at the same rate but that's inevitable. Steam Vents saw very little play when in Standard but it's now the most expensive shocklands in Modern thanks to the popularity of URx Delver decks.
Unlike individual cards that might see a reprint here and there there's simply zero chance to see the shocklands in Standard anytime soon. Alongside other Return to Ravnica block Modern staples they are one of the surest bets you could make for the years to come. Some cards still have a relatively low price now. With two years in front of them that's plenty of room for growth.
This block is also full of multicolored legends and casual favorites. Redemption may drive some prices up for now but it's a safety net to know that they won't be reprinted any time soon.
My favorite pick for Return to Ravnica block hasn't change from last time I talked about it here and here. In addition to the shocklands, Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman are the two cards I bought additional playsets of and that I'm pretty happy about them not being in MM2015.
Concluding Remarks
We know so little about MM2015 at this point and there too many possibilities to try to speculate on what could be in the set. On the other hand, knowing the sets that won't be in Modern Masters 2015 is a huge opportunity to set up prosperous investments for the two next years. Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks are certainly not short of eternal staples and this is where you should try to capitalize now.
Selling all my Modern positions threatened by a reprint in MM2015 is going to be a main goal at the beginning of this new year. I also want to be ready for when MM2015 hits MTGO. With MMA, so many cards really dipped only to beat new record high few months later--this will be the big buying opportunity of 2015.
Thanks for reading,
Sylvain Lehoux