All the talk these days seems to be about Modern. I know I return to the format often because it’s personally my favorite, but at times like these I’m also pretty sure it’s the most relevant financially. Legacy doesn’t change much and Standard is in a holding pattern for the next few weeks, whereas Modern allows us to actually plan out a little medium-to-long term.

Before I get into the breakdown of the results of the last GP, I want to briefly touch on the response to my article last week. Several people seem to think that my calls were too conservative. For the TL;DR of that, I stated I don’t see the chase mythics from Modern Masters 2015 dropping so much that it’s worth selling now and rebuying later. Basically, I’m betting that the truly chase mythics like Emrakul or Tarmogoyf or maybe even some Cryptic Command-level rares won’t drop below their current buylist price, making it a little short-sighted to sell out now.

I can certainly understand that reaction, given the larger print run of this set compared to the first Modern Masters. But the problem is that we don’t know how much larger the print run will be. If the print run is twice as big, for instance, I think it follows a similar trajectory to the first set. If it’s five times as large we can assume massive price drops.

But we don’t know, and we won’t for a long time. Given the higher MSRP, larger interest in Modern thanks to affordable lands and larger player base, that extra print run could easily be mitigated. We don’t know. What we do know is how Modern Masters 1 performed, and that’s what I worked off of in my calculations.

But I think one thing is for sure. Trading away the cards you fear reprints of for other post-New Phyrexia staples is a can’t-lose strategy. In this way you can more or less nullify the buylist hit and essentially “lock in” current value. I think this is both the safest and probably most profitable path forward.

Cruising for a Ban

Again, keep in mind the Top 16 we’re going to look at matters only in the context of no bans when Fate Reforged comes out. I would not be surprised (and LSV has gone on record saying the same) that Cruise, Dig and possibly Ascendancy will be banned in Modern. I know some people are claiming the metagame has adapted, but the truth is, outside a random weird (actual) Affinity list, you can play exactly three decks in Modern right now.

• Treasure Cruise decks.
• Dig Through Time decks.
• Birthing Pod.

At least, that’s been the narrative. I don’t think that’s a format Wizards wants around forever, especially considering the top decks are literally just watered-down versions of Legacy decks.

So with that in mind, I’m going to be taking a look at this Top 16 through the lens of what to sell to hedge against bannings, as well as possible buys.

• 28 Serum Visions
• 24 Tarmogoyf
• 23 Treasure Cruise
• 23 Gitaxian Probe
• 20 Thoughtseize
• 18 Abrupt Decay
• 16 Delver of Secrets
• 13 Snapcaster Mage
• 12 Birthing Pod
• 10 Noble Hierarch
• 9 Voice of Resurgence
• 7 Chalice of the Void
• 6 Dig Through Time

Not exactly as bad as could be expected, actually.

What about lands?

• 15 Windswept Heath
• 11 Wooded Foothills
• 8 Flooded Strand
• 2 Polluted Delta
• 0 Bloodstained Mire

• 34 Scalding Tarn
• 21 Misty Rainforest
• 20 Verdant Catacombs
• 9 Arid Mesa
• 8 Marsh Flats

Takeaways

-       Rumors of the Goyf’s demise were clearly overstated. Even when delving away your graveyard, Goyf is king.

-       Only six Dig Through Time is actually surprising. Of course, when it’s coupled with 23 Cruises, we still see the problem. I think there’s a small chance WOTC bans Cruise but not Dig. Dig, after all, does essentially cost “double” the mana to cast, so I’m not sure all the Cruise decks can replace Cruise with Dig and go on their way. That said, I don’t think WOTC would want to have to come back later and ban Dig away, so it could just be deemed too dangerous and thrown out as well.

-       Gitaxian Probe is an all-star in this meta and will be as long as Jeskai Ascendancy is legal. It’s $2.50 right now and could easily climb to $4-5 if things stayed the same. That said, I expect this in Modern Masters 2015 along with Pod and Spellskite, so the better play may be FNM Promo Probes, which are currently sitting flat at a nine-month low of $7.50. Given that it still sees play in Legacy and will regardless of what happens in Modern, I like this play a lot more.

-       Abrupt Decay is actually trending downward a little at $10, and I have a hard time believing it stays there. Remember, prices lull every year around the holidays and spike again in the Spring, thanks to tax returns or less holiday spending or cold weather or whatever. Either way, I really like getting into these now in preparation of $15+ next summer.

-       A lot of talk has gone around since we found out Snapcaster Mage wouldn’t be in Modern Masters 2015. It spiked earlier in the year to near-$40 before falling down to the $30 it’s at today. Honestly, I’m not sure we’ll see this hit $50 before it’s reprinted. It’s only a year older than Decay, and generally sees about equal play in Legacy and Modern. If I had to choose, I’d rather go in on $10 Decays than $30 Snapcasters for the next 12 months. That said, these are certainly a safe trade haven in preparation of next summer when I’m sure they’ll be in high demand.

-       Voice of Resurgence could be a sneaky pickup, especially if we see Delve bannings and Pod returns to the top of the heap. Personally I would like this, since I think a format where Pod is the best deck (but still super beatable) is a sign of a good format. Either way, Voice is from a third set that no one wanted to touch, and even though there’s very little else in the set worth anything it’s worth noting Voice is at an all-time low of $16. I think this is much more of a longer-term pickup that needs a few things to break its way to really explode, but the potential is there and I consider it fairly safe.

Lands

Again, I think we have to assume Zendikar fetch reprints in the next six months, either in the next two Standard sets or next summer in Modern Masters 2015. That makes me really leery of getting into them, though there is still value in seeing the hierarchy. Keep this in mind whenever the reprint does come.

And looking at Khans of Tarkir fetches, I’m pretty sure the hierarchy won’t be altered. This isn’t super useful now, of course, but it’s certainly something to remember as we move farther in to the life of Khans.

After a look over these latest results, I still believe we’re going to see a shakeup in Modern, either by banning the Delve cards (most likely) or unbanning something like Bloodbraid. I believe the former is the healthier of the two options for the format, but I’ve tried to present scenarios for both worlds.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter