Last week we received one of the most impactful banned and restricted changes from Wizards of the Coast in a while.

The most popular decks in Modern were pretty much neutered, popular blue Legacy decks were set back a bit, and we also saw the birth of two new available archetypes: Dredge in Modern and Worldgorger Dragon/Animate Dead Legacy combo.

Through these changes, there was much money to be gained (and lost). My gut reaction was to move on the obvious – I purchased 18 copies of Golgari Grave-Troll and 9 copies of Worldgorger Dragon almost immediately. Now I’m reaping the benefits, selling each copy for double what I paid, after fees and shipping.

Of course, I didn’t move out of my personal set of [now useless] Birthing Pods quickly enough. This one I’ve taken on the chin. Oh well, you win some and you lose some.

There were other good buys coming out of that announcement as well, but you’ve already read a number of articles about this. I have nothing new to add here – you hopefully already know what other cards could spike.

Instead, I’m going to focus on a much broader, more pressing matter. When we speculate on Magic: The Gathering cards, we are taking on sizable risk. It feels like the 2010’s are the decade of the reprint, as Wizards is intent on extracting value from a strong secondary market any way they can. Thus we get valuable Legacy and/or Casual staples showing up in sets like Commander, Duel Decks, Event Decks, Conspiracy, Modern Masters, From the Vaults, and an array of other products.

Then there’s also all the promos that get made annually: Grand Prix promos, Judge promos, FNM promos, etc. I’ve now got this (albeit exaggerated) perception that Wizards has a “hit list” of expensive cards people love to play, so they can reprint them in due time.

It may sound apocalyptic, but think about it. So. Many. Reprints!

Stop Scaring Us!

Sure, not everything can be reprinted in a timely fashion. We already know, for example, that cards from Innistrad block and later are safe from appearing in Modern Masters 2015. This means a card like Snapcaster Mage has license to continue its steady uptrend.

Because Wizards only has so many products to leverage for reprinting, a solid diversification strategy should ensure you avoid getting destroyed by reprints. Had you invested solely into Exploration in late 2013, for example, Conspiracy you would have seen your portfolio double and then drop by 75% shortly thereafter.

But if you only had a few, plus a few copies of other cards smattered throughout history, you could survive this drop.

Considering these occurrences, I want to emphasize this warning to everybody: you don’t have to be as paranoid as I am.

While you’re making significant bank on stuff like Vengevine and Geist of Saint Traft thanks to the recent B&R changes, don’t be afraid to take your profits. Even if you miss the true peak, you’ll still be making bank. And the higher the card goes in value, the more the damage that can occur from reprinting.

Three Cards Relatively “Safe” from Reprinting

Rather than continue to hammer home this mild paranoia I maintain in the back of my mind, I’ll try to take a different angle. Beyond the reserved list – the ultimate safety from reprints – there are a handful of cards that I personally believe are primed to dodge that reprint death cross.

1. Stoneforge Mystic

This Legacy staple has been a terrific investment since it bottomed during the dreadful winter doldrums. Now it’s a $35 card, and it's likely to go higher.

But this upward trajectory isn’t going to be disrupted by reprints for a couple reasons. First, Stoneforge Mystic is banned in Modern. This means no Modern Masters reprint. And she’s awfully powerful – with better and better equipment likely to be printed, Stoneforge is likely serving a life sentence on that banned list.

Second, this innocent-looking creature has given Wizards of the Coast a ton of headaches. It’s rare these days that we see a card banned in Standard, yet Stoneforge Mystic maintains this distinguished honor.

Not only that, but Stoneforge Mystic falls into an even rarer category: it may be the only card ever to be banned from a format, but still allowed to be used in that format under a certain circumstance.

To what circumstance am I referring to? This one:

That’s right, Wizards placed the Kor Artificer into a Standard Event Deck, only to ban the card shortly thereafter. Thus, they had to make an embarrassing, unique rule for Stoneforge Mystic: she’s banned in Standard unless you play the exact 75 card list above.

After this debacle, do you think Wizards would bring this creature back into Standard? I sure don’t!

2. Sensei's Divining Top

Here we have another one of those cards banned from Modern. But the controversy around this card goes far beyond its high power. I tend to believe you’re in one of two camps when it comes to this artifact: you either hate Sensei's Divining Top, or you like durdling a whole lot.

My biases aside, you have to admit this card isn’t very popular amongst the general population. It leads to a very slow game for the player(s) not using it. Wizards doesn’t like slow, boring games. That’s why they killed the Eggs deck from Modern by banning Second Sunrise, after all.

As a result, we’ve seen a ton of reprint opportunities where Wizards could have brought this card back, yet they decided not to. It’s not in Conspiracy, it’s not in any of the Commander decks, and it’s not ever coming back to Standard.

The reason, I think, is obvious: Wizards hates this card as much as the average player. It can lead to unfun Magic, and Wizards avoids unfun Magic like the plague. Hence I’m sure they’d prefer it doesn't even exist, which means it will maintain an upward price trajectory as long as Counter-Top is a strong strategy in Legacy.

3. Lore Seeker

The Conspiracy set was something like none other. Wizards of the Coast tried to create a set all about drafting and politics – a clever idea, for those who enjoy these aspects of Magic.

Now that we’re many months beyond the set’s release, I almost never hear about it anymore. I don’t know about you, but there are multiple boxes still in stock, waiting to be drafted at my LGS.

With this in mind, I don’t believe we’re going to see a Conspiracy v2.0. Personally, I think Wizards will be more successful by trying something completely different.

In any event, I know nonfoils of the Conspiracy-specific cards aren’t worth a whole lot. But foils sure are! Stuff like foil Lore Seeker and foil Council's Judgment are likely to appreciate in value as they get older. Seeing as there’s no where else to put ‘em, I suspect we won’t see reprints for a long time.

Be Safe

You probably can’t concern yourself with reprints in every trade you make. Sometimes we just can’t pass up a good deal. And we all know certain cards are likely to rise in the coming months, even if they may get reprinted two years out. There’s nothing wrong with acquiring a Geist of Saint Traft on the cheap when we expect him to grow in demand after the recent Modern bannings.

Just be aware that reprints can and will happen frequently.

I listed a few safe cards you can be confident in acquiring for the long haul. The Reserved List obviously presents numerous other options, such as Dual Lands, and other cards banned in Modern could also be strong targets, such as Umezawa's Jitte. Unique or foil printings (such as the Promo Jitte) are even safer still.

It all comes down to diversifying. Keeping a consistent distribution of investments across multiple formats and card types will ensure you aren’t destroyed by that next reprint set. Diversification, along with some common sense, will ensure you’re in the speculation game for years to come. This, despite the fact that we’re in the midst of the decade of reprints.

…

Sigbits

• Of course, Star City Games suddenly has Orzhov Pontiffs in stock. The banning of Birthing Pod significantly drops the demand of this creature. Yet they only have 2 copies available right now and their retail price is still $7.85. These will drop, but perhaps the supply is just too sparse to really drive their price much lower right now.
• Survival of the Fittest has no business coming off the Legacy banned list. That card completely warped the format. So now that the announcement has passed, why hasn’t the green enchantment been coming back down in price? Being a Commander favorite on the Reserved List sure helps. Star City Games is still sold out with a $49.99 price tag. Expect this to bump $10 when it’s restocked.
• Gitaxian Probe is slightly less exciting now that Treasure Cruise is banned in Legacy. But the card is still incredibly popular. Star City Games is still out of normal copies with a price tag of $3.49. I expect this to be $5 at retail very soon…unless, of course, it’s in Modern Masters 2015.