So on Monday we all saw the big news....

Some were pretty expected (all the Modern ones) and Cruise being banned in Legacy wasn't too surprising either. Unbanning Worldgorger Dragon was a bit surprising, but mainly because most people feel it's actually pretty irrelevant. The Vintage changes weren't all that exciting from a financial perspective because the player base is so small.

I decided for this week to go over all the possible cards that will be affected from these changes, outside of the cards banned/unbanned themselves.

As usual I don't want to just list the winners and losers without giving you my reasoning behind them. I certainly don't invest in any speculation target I don't believe in, and if I don't convince you with my reasoning then you shouldn't invest in it either. To make things a bit easier I will highlight the cards I expect to go up in green and the ones I expect to drop in red.

But what does this mean....

Modern

Golgari Grave-Troll

Adam Yurchick wrote a really good article here on QS discussing the possibilities that open up with Golgari Grave-Troll's addition to Modern.

My only insight to add is that (as I mentioned in the comments on his article) Grave-Troll doesn't really help create a Modern "dredge" deck like the one in Legacy. Legacy Dredge's key pieces are the spells that can be cast from the graveyard for no mana cost--namely Cabal Therapy and Dread Return. These are the critical pieces of that deck, as the dredge mechanic allows the player to hit these cards very consistently and abuse the "sacrifice a creature" cost with Bridge from Below triggers.

Without those two spells any Modern dredge deck is really more of a "play good cards from the graveyard" style deck as opposed to an actual "engine" deck. If Dredgevine decks pick up in popularity, then expect Scavenging Oozes to go up in value.

Treasure Cruise

First, no one should have been surprised by this one. When Mono-Red Burn is splashing for 2-3 Steam Vents and 4 Treasure Cruise, then it's clearly over the top. WoTC's own reasoning behind other bannings (Green Sun's Zenith specifically) was that decks were splashing for the card too often and/or if you played that color you played that card. That doesn't lead to a diverse metagame, hence the banning of Cruise.

Now, we haven't actually had Cruise in the metagame for all that long. It hit the ground running and warped the metagame right from the start though. U/R Delver decks became very prevalent and we saw a gradual increases in Thought Scour that simply acted as cheap cantrip (and occasionally adding, effectively, three colorless mana to your mana pool) and a gradual increase in Remand, which became the tempo counterspell of choice again. While I don't imagine either one will plummet in value, I do expect demand to drop as many players move away from the U/R tempo shell.

We'll also see Forked Bolt take a pretty big hit, as it's main targets of choice, Delver of Secrets and Young Pyromancer, drop back down as a percentage of the metagame. If I had any foils of this or Thought Scour I would unload them ASAP.

Treasure Cruise also featured heavily in the Jeskai Ascendancy combo deck. However, in this deck Cruise was a nice addition, but wasn't nearly as important as it was to the U/R tempo decks. Far more importantly, Jeskai Ascendancy missed the banhammer this round. That being the case, I expect Fatestitcher/Faerie Conclave to hold their current price, if not drift up a bit; especially if the format slows down a little (as that deck really likes to go off on turn four).

Lastly, I expect Thoughtseize and Dark Confidant to go up a bit as black in general was being held back pretty heavily by Cruise. Dark Confidant just didn't play well with Cruise at all (most people love paying U to draw 3 cards...they don't like taking 8 life and U to draw 4). The only concern for Dark Confidant now is if he shows back up in MM2 (which does seem likely, assuming WoTC wants to keep the cost of Modern as a whole down).

Liliana of the Veil also will likely see more play since making each player discard a card wasn't a great idea when your opponent could use those cards as Lotus Petals to draw three later in the game and nullify any advantage you had with Liliana. That being said, MaRo did state that they contemplated reprinting her in M15, but felt Mono-Black Devotion would have just been too ridiculous (and given how bad it already was, we were pretty lucky on that one). That clearly means that they don't feel her power level is too high for Standard so she could easily fit into M16, which would tank the price hard.

The last deck I want to mention is the old Pyromancer Ascension Storm deck, which didn't want Cruise because it needed most of the cards in its graveyard to up the storm count via Past in Flames. This deck did well at the last Modern PT and its biggest challenge was often resolving a Pyromancer Ascension against U/R decks packing maindeck Spell Pierce and Spell Snare, which are now going to recede.

Key cards to this deck will likely see a resurgence in value. Namely Pyromancer Ascension and possibly Past in Flames. Past was printed in Innistrad, which misses the "planes mentioned in the MM2 announcement," and Pyromancer Ascension still isn't all that absurdly expensive and really only goes in one deck, limiting the current demand.

Dig Through Time

This has less bearing in Modern than Cruise, but its removal does make playing blue-based combo decks a bit worse--it was actually a better addition to any deck that wanted very specific cards over simply "more" cards. But given it hadn't seen nearly as much play as Cruise, decks like Scapeshift and U/R Twin that were playing it will simply revert back to their pre-Khans versions and keep on moving.

Birthing Pod

This one was likely the most controversial banning, if only because it was the key component in one of the format's pillars. It's banning all but eliminates the Pod decks we've seen for the past few years and while the deck's main components might take a smaller hit, most of them are still in demand for the Junk decks.

Pod's biggest losers are the one-of's such as Linvala, Keeper of Silence; Orzhov Pontiff (which spiked shortly before the banning and is already back down to pre-spike price); and Archangel of Thune. While the two angels will still maintain some demand (on account of being one-print mythic angels), the actual player demand will drop and so will they.

Pod's banning also puts a bit of a damper on my Chord of Calling spec, as it's really only been played in Pod decks in Modern; though the power level on that card is high enough that I still have hope for it. The banning of Birthing Pod will likely mean a pretty big shift from previous Pod players to Junk players (given they still get to use a lot of the cards they already own from Pod), so I'm really looking forward to a more diverse metagame with more midrange decks that aren't just midrange with a splash of combo (via Pod).

This means that (unfortunately for most) Tarmogoyf will likely see an increase in demand as he was one of the few powerhouse green creatures not played in Pod, but played in all other forms of green-based midrange decks in Modern. The banning of Pod and the likelihood that WoTC knows that means a lot of players are going to need more Tarmogoyfs as they shift to midrange strategies implies (to me at least) that we are almost assured of another Tarmogoyf reprint. I honestly wouldn't be all that suprised if we see him at rare (simply because nothing about him screams "mythic" except his price).

If you're going to play your Tarmogoyfs for the next four months you might as well keep them. But if you aren't, I'd unload them in a month or so (assuming he isn't spoiled in MM2 already) to one of the disenfranchised Pod players in your area.

Legacy

Treasure Cruise

What was said previously in the Modern section applies equally to Legacy, however Legacy is a beast of its own with a far more diverse metagame than Modern. Without Cruise to supply card advantage to U/R tempo decks you'll likely see many previous RUG players come back to the herd. Young Pyromancer is awesome, but U/R always had a hard time against a resolved Tarmogoyf and it relied heavily on the card advantage from Cruise to power through Goyf.

With U/R tempo decks losing a great deal of their power level we'll likely see players splashing for their third color again, which means Wasteland and Stifle go up in demand. I've stated previously how big a fan I am of Stifle now. With Conspiracy adding an additional "mass" printing (though I truly don't think it's anywhere near as big as a regular set) the price for the card has never been lower. With Treasure Cruise pushing out the deck (RUG) that would typically play it, demand was also at an all time low.

This also means that the decks that the tempo decks preyed on will see a resurgence. The main culprit is Sneak and Show, which has a really tough time beating a clock on turn one or two backed up by cheap counterspells to interrupt the opponent's game plan. I expect we'll see a resurgence in both Sneak Attack and Show and Tell as previous S&T players go back to cheating in absurdly powerful creatures and just getting to go "oops I win" a bunch.

Now, both of the creatures they cheat in have recently (or will soon) be reprinted--Griselbrand as a GP Promo and Emrakul in MM2. So I think the potential for those two is nil and instead lies with the engine cards. I think with U/R Delver decks receding we'll also likely see Volcanic Island dip in price a little; not a lot, but it's been hovering near Underground Sea levels since shortly after Cruise was printed and I expect it to drop back to it's pre-Khans price.