Market Report for Wednesday, January 28^th 2015

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of January 26^th, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website, while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

Return to Ravnica Block and M14

The outlook for both RTR and GTC remains unchanged, with future price gains anticipated as interest in Modern rises in advance of Modern Masters 2015. Both sets have shown both real and relative price stability as they are the only two redeemable sets not to be in the red over the past month. TCG prices are also flat to positive, appearing to have bottomed in the 3^rd week of December.

DGM continued to hemorrhage value this week as the market digested the banning of Birthing Pod. Voice of Resurgence may have found a floor as it seems to fit in new Modern Junk lists. However, there is still an abundance of choice in the two-drop slot so at current prices, this is still just one to watch.

Both Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze have seen an uptick in price this past week, and M14 as a set is approaching good value when comparing MTGO prices to paper prices. In particular, Windreader Sphinx is currently below 0.4 tix. This junk mythic rare is a buy at anything less than 0.6 tix.

Theros Block and M15

This past weekend was the first chance to see what players could do in Standard with the additions of Fate Reforged (FRF). Gerard Fabiano won the SCG Open with a Sultai control deck featuring two key additions from FRF. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon and Crux of Fate pushed out Perilous Vault as the sweepers of choice in this control build.

The writing appears to be on the wall for the mythic artifact from M15; Perilous Vault has been one of the best performers from M15 but it looks like it has a price drop in its future. This one is a sell.

Another M15 card that appeared in Fabiano’s list as a singleton was Garruk, Apex Predator, which has nearly disappeared at under 5 tix. This is expected to be a short-term uptrend as the new Standard metagame establishes itself.

Fabiano’s list appears to have been well designed to handle the field, but it’s not clear that this particular version of Sultai Control will have staying power. Both control and aggressive strategies will develop and fine-tune their card choices over time and so Garruk is one to watch, but a price increase beyond 8 or 9 tix seems unlikely. This one would have been a buy on Sunday afternoon at around 4 tix.

JOU is still the most expensive set out of THS block, meaning that value will be hard to find here. The two cards that were highlighted here last week, Eidolon of the Great Revel and Keranos, God of Storms, have risen into the 8 to 9 tix range. These are still expected to rise in price over the coming months, but with FRF prereleases starting this week, there might be some short-term downward pressure on their prices as the demand for tix in the MTGO economy escalates.

Red-green strategies did not establish themselves as part of the new Standard metagame this weekend, so the powerful mythic rares from THS have not budged in price. Keep an eye on Stormbreath Dragon, Xenagos, the Reveler and Polukranos, World Eater, but these cards might be in for a slow decline as they get relegated to the fringes of Standard. It’s early yet, but the relative lack of these cards in the top 64 decks at the SCG Open is troublesome.

Lastly, a set that is teetering on the edge of value is BNG. There’s no magic number where this is the case, but being priced slightly below TCG Low is a good start. Kiora, the Crashing Wave has also seen a little bounce as a result of appearing in Fabiano’s first place deck (as a two-of). If this card was still priced at 5 tix, it would be good value. But the current price of 7 to 8 tix is too risky to consider speculating on.

Khans of Tarkir

Siege Rhino from KTK continues to fluctuate around the 2 tix mark. Anytime you get a chance to buy these at 2 tix or less, you should stock them away for the future due to expected playability in both Standard and Modern.

Otherwise, it’s time to start looking for value in KTK, particularly in the rares. Keep a short list of potentially playable rares and start accumulating them over the next two months. Start with Crater's Claws at 0.2 tix or less and Abzan Ascendancy at 0.05 tix or less.

Modern

The immediate effect of last week’s Banned and Restricted announcement was seen on card prices, with the vast majority of Modern non-Pod, non-U/R Delver staples rising from 30% to 150%. The second effect was to put the Modern format in an unprecedented position since its inception—a new and unsolved format.

This past weekend SCG held the first major Modern event since the changes. The SCG Modern Premier IQ delivered a preliminary verdict on the new Modern format—a very open environment with no less than 15 different archetypes in the top 32. The tournament was taken down by a Bogles/Hexproof list in a field where most of the potential Modern decks were represented.

Among the Top 32 deck lists, one Dredgevine deck featuring the newly unbanned Golgari Grave-Troll appeared. Meanwhile, Splinter Twin decks managed to place only two copies in the top 32. There were zero Amulet of Vigor decks, no Living End decks and Through the Breach decks were also absent.

Junk/Jund decks were the most represented with five players piloting a Liliana of the Veil-based deck with or without Dark Confidant. Tarmogoyf and Snapcaster Mage were the most played creatures by far, showing up in multiple different builds.

From a speculative standpoint, everything remains open and should grow a little bit more as we are heading to the Pro Tour next week. Several Modern staples including Tarmogoyf, Liliana of the Veil, Primeval Titan, Horizon Canopy and Splinter Twin are back to their previous price records. Selling these after the amazing run of last week would be a safe move. However, we think that on average, more potential awaits with the incoming Modern Pro Tour.

Are there any more good buying opportunities after last week's shockwave? Short answer is, ‘yes’. When there are panicky movements in the market, some cards will have lost more value than they should have. All of a sudden, the losers from the Banned/Restricted announcement might represent good value, and other cards might be on the verge of playability. See below for details with the Targeted Buying Opportunities.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Modern

Misty Rainforest

Elspeth, Knight-Errant

Restoration Angel

Olivia Voldaren

Master of Etherium

Smash to Smithereens

Standard

Doomwake Giant

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Standard

Perilous Vault