There is an interesting concept in chess called zugzwang. Zugzwang is a German word because sometimes when there is an unpleasant concept, we won't have a word for it in English, but you can bet the Germans do. There's no English word for schadenfreude or torschlusspanik even though maybe there should be.

Black's in zugzwang in this position. Any more black takes is a bad one. He can't move his king because any move he makes will put his king in check. If he moves his H7 pawn to H6, white captures and promotes. If he moves to H5, white captures en passant and promotes. No matter what black does, he's going to make his board position worse. The only way not to make things worse is not to move at all.

So how does understanding the concept of zugzwang, a concept you surely now understand if you didn't already, help us in Magic finance? Magic finance isn't chess, after all.

Magic Isn't Chess

And that's the point, isn't it? This isn't a bad thing, because unlike in chess, we don't always have to make a move. When we recognize that we're in a situation where the only way to win is not to play, we have the luxury of not making a play.

It may feel odd to not react to an event that everyone knows is coming like the revelation of new tech at a Pro Tour or Grand Prix. We have to get over that odd feeling because it can drive us to make plays that aren't ideal because we feel like it's worse to do nothing, especially if the play is fairly obvious. However, not every obvious play is a good one because if it's obvious to you, it's obvious to others, and they'll inform still others. Although it's uncomfortable, there are situations where the only move that won't make you worse off is not to make a move at all.

Do we have a zugzwang situation in Magic finance? I think we may. It's happening in under a week.

"No Change"

Back in September of 2014, we were all a bit relieved to see the following announcement.

Bannings and unbannings bring turmoil and uncertainty with them sometimes. In the case of bannings, the landscape is going to look quite different. A dominant deck may have lost a key piece and there is opportunity to buy underpriced cards whose price will go up as they are adopted to a greater extent to fill the vacuum left when a dominant deck bows out.

In the case of unbannings, the banned card is likely to skyrocket in price as people scramble to get copies of a card they are sure everyone is going to want. This all seems pretty simple. Why would we want to stay away?

Hard-Earned B&R

Banned and Restricted announcement night isn't what it used to be. Quiet Speculation used to send out an Insider e-mail alert the week before letting everyone know to get pumped. We recommended filling online shopping carts on various sites with various specs before the announcement was made. That way, as soon as you refreshed the page, you could be the first one to check out because you just click "submit" while everyone else is scrambling to navigate the sites.

You had to have an idea of what you wanted to buy going in, but it was better than being caught flatfooted while people with faster internet connections beat you to the punch. Pre-filling your shopping cart and being ready to check out on a hair trigger was smart.

The issue? Stores got smarter. Well, maybe not smarter, but ballsier at least.

Stores just stopped honoring orders on cards that spiked suddenly. If you order on Monday night, and they come in Tuesday morning to see the card was unbanned and it's going on TCG Player for eight times what you're trying to pay them, expect to eat it. They will refund your money and relist the card for the new price. Is this ethical? I don't really want to have that debate. Whether or not it's ethical, it's what's up and we have had to adapt.

The new normal is the only way to make any money on unbanned cards is to already have them when they are unbanned. You want copies in hand. ready to list on TCG Player or Amazon or wherever you sell singles. There is a brief window where people will pay insane prices.

If you had copies of Bitterblossom and were ready to list them because you bet your money that it would be unbanned (it didn't need to impact Modern at all to hold double its pre-spike price, which is depressing and makes things harder to predict in the future) you made out, but everyone who ordered them for $18 and had their order cancelled bit it just as hard as the people who paid $80.

Clearly someone made some money on Bitterblossom, so how does zugzwang enter into it?

I have a few graphics.

Zugzwang

Modern actually looks pretty healthy. Legacy is largely left alone unless something (**cough cough** Mental Misstep **cough cough**) makes that format cartoonish for a while. Standard is healthy and has as dynamic a Top 8 every week as this Modern event did. So the real speculation about bannings and unbannings deals with Modern.

With a Modern format that looks healthy and the only likely change to be bannings, either of Treasure Cruise, Birthing Pod or both, it's hard to make as much money as you would on an unban.

If you ask Magic players what they think should be unbanned, they say silly things. According to a poll on MTG Salvation, the top five cards players felt should be unbanned were Bloodbraid Elf, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Ancestral Vision, Sword of the Meek and Golgari Grave-Troll. Grave Troll. In a format where people complain about Treasure Cruise. This is what Magic players want. Are any of those unbans likely?

My gut says "hell no!" with the exception of perhaps Bloodbraid. I think you'll make more money on Boom // Bust than on BBE itself if the unban happens now that those are back to bulk, but Elf was banned for a reason and it certainly would make the format less diverse rather than more diverse.

So if the only likely thing is a ban, why not stay away? You can risk your money on Bloodbraid Elf, you can chase the spike on Chalice of the Void, a cruise ship that was full of treasure but has long since sailed, or you can sit on your hands. I know it's going to feel weird not to try and buy anything the week before a major event. But sometimes the only way not to make things worse is not to do anything.