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I looked over Standard last week, and it continues to be as diverse as ever (this season), with seven different archetypes appearing in the Top 8 of the Star City Games event last weekend. Thatās truly awesome, but we seem to be devoid of any true surprises so far, and thus our attention shifts to Modern and the Pro Tour happening this weekend.
This is our only Modern Pro Tour of the year, and I for one will enjoy it. Modern is my favorite format, and honestly one of the best to speculate in, since thereās something for everyone financially.
You want wild calls that could double up overnight? Youāve got them. Solid holds that will rise over time? Got those too. What about flash-in-the-pan decks that send cards up a thousand percent on the day of the Pro Tour? Iām sure weāll have those as well.
Plus, results like this make you think the format truly is wide-open.
Anyway, I know my articles usually have more of an overarching theme, but I also like to switch it up every now and then. And with a Pro Tour coming up in which not only is much unknown but Iāve also talked much about what I expect the format to look like, I wanted to just talk about some specs Iām a fan of at the moment. And I donāt figure anyone is going to complain about some actionable advice š
(In no particular order)
1. Crucible of Fire
If I were to choose one āspeculating strategyā for myself, it would be stuff like this. Itās your quintessential low-risk, sure-reward target in my mind. The numbers back this up. Itās sitting at 85 cents TCGMid value, and has been climbing from the sub-50 cents it was sitting at back in the beginning of January.
So why is this a good target? For starters, the original printing was $5 before it was reprinted in Magic 2015. Obviously a reprint hurts on a casual card like this, but we have to also remember that this was $5 for a reason, and it got there from bulk when it was printed in Shards of Alara.
Sure, we may not see $5 again in a year or two, but this is literally a throw-in (or throw-away) card in trade right now, and I have no doubt it will be $2-3 in 12-18 months, or it could possibly even get there sooner given that Dragons of Tarkir is just a few months away.
Long story made short, this is a super-safe, super low-risk spec with a solid payoff expected down the road.
2. Knight of the Reliquary
This one is certainly a little more speculative, but I actually think it could be a good one. Itās widely available under $5 right now, and I think its time could be coming in Modern.
The reason? The loss of Birthing Pod. The removal of the card opens up other green-based strategies, and that often leads down the path to Knight. After all, dropping a 4/4 Knight of the Reliquary on turn two is nothing to sneeze at.
In general, I like green-white cards as a whole. Even the sub-$1 Loxodon Smiter isnāt bad. Itās immune from Modern Masters 2 (as I assume Knight is too, since it was in MM1), and matches up extremely well against all the Liliana of the Veil we expect to see running around. We saw Hate Bears do well last week, and I think itās a fair assumption that these GBx decks actually can be fought, and G/W may be one of the best ways to do that.
Anyway, back to Knight. It works so well with so many green-based decks, and the price has been stagnant for a while. While that may be considered a sign of weakness, it can also be considered a sign of a card that is ready to start moving up.
3. Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
Lands like this will always have a home. Not only does it see play in all formats including Commander/EDH, itās also possibly poised for a resurgence in Standard. Remember that the more cards that are in the pool the more opportunity there is to create good devotion numbers for Nykthos.
Weāre seeing a small uptick in it right now from its sub-$3 price, and I wouldnāt be surprised to see it climb back to $5-6 this season. Again, weāre not talking huge gains, weāre talking small ones.
But the primary reason I like this card isnāt for its Standard applications, itās for the long-term. This card will always be on the verge of being broken in Modern because cheating on mana is always the number one way to break a format, as Treasure Cruise recently showed us. Nykthos may fall back down to $2 before it goes to $5, but either way I love acquiring as many as I can at $2-3 and just waiting for the payoff down the road.
4. Sliver Hivelord
Iāve talked about this in the past, and again itās high on my list. In fact, I feel like the window on this may actually be closing given that itās started to move up from the $5 it was at. Itās sitting around $6 today, and I have no doubt this will be $10 or more by the end of 2015 and could actually explode in that time.
Sliver Queen is $40. Sliver Overlord is $16. Sliver Legion is $45. And Sliver Hivelord is $6.
I donāt care how recently it was printed. Itās a mythic, and itās an incredibly good buy right now.
5. Cyclonic Rift
Iām aware that most of my picks here trend toward the casual side, but thereās a reason for that. Namely, theyāre easy picks where you donāt have to predict demand so much as just predict a predictable trend.
Rift is one of those cards. Available under $2 right now, this is a formerly-$5 card that was somewhat tanked by a reprint in Commander 2014. That said, weāre already seeing both it and the Commander version start to rebound.
This thing could occasionally pop up in big mana Modern decks, but thereās a much better reason for this call: itās basically an auto-include in any blue Commander deck, not to mention itās also legal in the new Tiny Leaders format, if that becomes a thing. Foil Rifts are available under $10, and I like that play just as much. Iāve never seen a blue Commander deck that didnāt want this, and I donāt think it will be long at all before we see it get back to $5 and the foil versions to start pushing $20.
So there you go. Simple but, I hope, useful. What do you guys think of these calls?
Thanks for reading,
Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter
I’m still struggling to understand why I see hordes of Sliver Hivelord floating around in trade binders and store cases, often for much less than retail. I even had a person trade me a Hivelord for a couple of KTK common misprints. Hivelord just needs to go out of print, and watch the price rise.
Slivers will just always be popular and I know that among my group of friends, all of us, at least at some point, had a “sliver phase” where that was all we wanted to play.
That card (Hivelord) is easily my favorite on the list, but Nykthos is another card just waiting for its proper home to happen along and blow up in price.
Thanks for this, Corbin. Simple, yes, but I do not think I’m alone in saying this is the kind of article more folks want to see on QS. In fact, I am confused whenever I see an Insider article about strategy and not speculation. After all this is a spec and finance site so it would seem strategy articles should be reserved for the free section and more articles like this for the Insider section.
My $0.02
Agreed.
Some of my best money makers come from strategy articles. Caleb Durwald wrote a nice peice on cfb about Tasigur. In both that article and his previously written Abzan one espoused the merits of Seige Rhino. That makes me want to hold the 50+ copies I have rather than sell them and lock in profit.
+1, those kind of “forward analysis” is what i am mostly interested as well as metagame / decks analysis that can drive prices.
that prices database to analyse trends and such
I agree with Josh, the only reason i signed up was to get financial advise for MTG. These type of articles are golden!
I’m with you on slive hivelord, I managed to pick up 40 last month at 3.64. Rift feels like terminus and still hasn’t quite panned out for me. I like crucible but finding an out that’s not a buylist is difficult if you have a lot. SCGs year end sale had some very aggressively priced kotr
Just inquiring as to how certain everybody is on specs. My motivation was struck down early this week when i stumpled upon a small gem called “castigate” ( which is a two drop verbedam thoughtseize without the loss of life. I thought to myself, “thoughtseize has two different prints, is 20$+. Castigate is 8 cents and a better card? Does anyone see this? Help me Dr. Hosler!
1 black vs 1 black and 1white is a huge difference, thoughtseize turn 1 before your opponent can do anything is allot better. 2 life is nothing compared to that upside ! š
As Oscar said, being able to fit Thoughtseize into your curve anywhere is so important. Castigate is sweet, but mana efficiency is everything.
In addition just picture gameplay, T1 thoughtseize gets rid of your opponents biggest threat, pyromancer ascension, goyf really anything vs castigate will allow them to have up to two turns before you can cast it (Assuming you have the right colors).
Tidehollow sculler is castigate with a 2/2 body and is worth a fair bit more and it still doesn’t see as much play as thoughtseize. Cards like duress will fair better than castigate. When looking at cards, there are usually downgraded versions of staples designed for flavor/block/draft/edh play. For example lightning strike is strictly a worse lighting bolt but a great card in standard and draft so it exists.
Completely disagree with Josh. Strategy is key for anyone serious about making money at mtg finance. Having someone list off cards that he or she believes will rise in price due to casual demand is nearly worthless until rotation… and then it’s very valuable
Those strategy articles are EXACTLY the advice you should be looking for, something that you can put into action when someone lays out good spec targets, such as what Sir Alt has done here. Without the strategy knowledge, the “which cards are hot” articles mean almost nothing. Besides, the forums do a great job at pointing out the next best thing. Being fed the “mtg stock to buy” daily does little good if you can’t use the strategies to find them yourself…. plus, it would get old quickly.
It’s really a mix of what you’re saying and what Josh said. Yes, strategy is key to understanding why a card spikes, but Josh’s point is that if he pays for a service to spoon-feed information that is actionable, then that’s what he wants it to do.
If I wanted to spend hours digging through decklists, looking at sideboard tech and cataloging the meta of each format, I would do it. I am well aware of the factors behind a spec target; the point is, I don’t want to do the work, I want it done for me which is why I pay money for a service with minds geared towards making money from MTG.
Imagine the CEO of your company calls you in to his/her office, says “Should we be nearshoring, offshoring, or maintaining domestic production? Bring me an answer tomorrow.” The CEO wants an answer, and if he/she feels the need to go through your work, fine, but if the answer is what is most important then the answer is what you should give. Analysts are paid to analyze and reduce aggregated data into understandable and actionable information.
I don’t think Josh meant to undermine the importance of understanding the factors that make a card move. It seems that he meant that a lot of us are very busy people that pay for convenience rather than doing the work ourselves, and that we may simply wish for a little more of that convenience and a little less of the “prodding” towards the right answer from QS.
Thanks, Wes, for elaborating on my initial point. Correct, the beauty of QS for us busy folk is convenience. In no way do I mean to undermine the impact of strategy on a card’s movement. The two are attached at the hip after all. My point was simply that on a spec and finance site, I’d like to see more articles like Corbin’s and less that are strategic in nature.
Sneaky credit to Jason there instead of me š
My bad… Sir Hosler. Damn it. What can I say, I prefer chemists.
As another note, I meant to include Scavenging Ooze in the GW section (I love it as a spec), but it slipped through the cracks somehow. But take note anyway!
Scooze is mentioned all over cfb and scg strategy articles. I think he is going to be my next deep spec ($200 worth is deep for me).
Greatly enjoyed the article