Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of February 9^th, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively. Note that it usually takes about a month after a set releases on MTGO for it be available for redemption, so expect FRF to be redeemable in the first week of March.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

The outlook for both RTR and GTC remains unchanged, with future price gains anticipated as interest in Modern rises in advance of Modern Masters 2015. The price on both of these sets has fallen in the past week, but it’s important to note that this generally corresponds with falling prices on rares, not on mythic rares.

For specific cards from RTR and GTC, both Sphinx's Revelation and Domri Rade were no-shows in the new Modern metagame on display at Pro Tour Fate Reforged. This dampens the outlook on these cards, but it’s not time to consider selling.

In paper, both RTR and GTC are in the early stages of an uptrend, while on MTGO, prices are depressed as FRF release events continue, thus generating a high demand for tix. Although these cards are no longer considered a good speculative buy, they are a hold. Prices will recover after release events wind down, and beyond that the outlook includes interest in Modern generated by the release of MM2.

Voice of Resurgence has rebounded into the 17-20 tix range as a result of the Abzan-heavy metagame of PT FRF. In the pricing table above DGM does not show a corresponding move, which highlights the problem of using Supernova prices.

Their pricing algorithm moves slowly on singles. With large sets, when there are many prices moving, a large price change can get washed out by lots of smaller price changes. However, in the case of a small set like DGM, the correct set price depends on the correct price of Voice of Resurgence. Understanding the quality and nature of the underlying data is important when doing any analysis, so this is an example of a known data quality issue that is highlighted here for educational purposes.

M14 continues to slide in price and this set is definitely approaching ‘good value’ territory as it gets closer to its post-rotation low from October. But unfortunately this set has also been falling in price in paper meaning that price support from redemption is not yet ready to kick in. Until the paper price stabilizes, it’s not time to consider buying cards this set.

Theros Block & M15

THS is down over 20% in the last month and 10% in the last week. The drops by BNG and JOU are similar if not slightly bigger. All three of these sets look like they are due for a rebound in the coming weeks and so selectively buying Standard staples is the strategy to consider.

From THS, consider Elspeth, Sun's Champion. One month ago, this card was around 21 tix. Currently priced in the 12-13 tix range, it’s still one of the most played planeswalkers in Standard.

From BNG, two key cards of the U/W Heroic deck--Temple of Enlightenment and Hero of Iroas--have dropped by more 50% during FRF release events. While the hero has already rebounded by about 1 tix the blue-white temple has remained mostly flat in the 4-tix range. With potential for broader application, the temple is certainly a great position to consider now.

With less obvious upside but at very low prices now compared to their recent heights, Eidolon of Countless Battles, Herald of Torment and Spirit of the Labyrinth are positions to keep an eye on. Courser of Kruphix didn’t appear in many Junk/Jund Modern deck lists, so with only Standard to support its price, a rebound is not necessarily to be expected from this centaur.

Another card that has dropped in the last month is Pharika, God of Affliction from JOU. This card found the 5 tix price level to be pretty reasonable back in November, before taking off and peaking at around 18 tix at the end of December. Now it’s back down to around 5 tix again so keep this one in mind when you are looking for speculative targets over the next few weeks.

Goblin Rabblemaster was the breakout rare from M15 and it looks like it will continue to be a force in Standard. However, this card has already moved up about 30% in the past week, going from 12 tix to around 16 tix. So it looks like the market has already moved on this one, making this a tad risky.

Khans of Tarkir & Fate Reforged

KTK looks like it’s about as cheap as it’s going to get before it stops being drafted. There are precisely zero cards priced over 10 tix, an unheard of situation for a set currently in Standard. Starting to accumulate the playable mythic rares from this set is a prudent move. Once DTK is released, there will be upward pricing pressure on all KTK cards as the supply from drafters slows down. Keep this in mind over the next six weeks.

Release events for FRF continue, but the results from the recent Pro Tour make it look like this set is a Modern bust. Monastery Mentor was a no-show in D.C., and so it’s probably going to keep falling in price. Outside of innovative new Standard decks that put a new card in the spotlight, the pricing outlook for all FRF cards is lower. Expect prices on this set to continue to fall over the coming weeks.

Modern

Pro Tour Fate Reforged is over and with it the bases of a new Modern format have been set. Along with the decks we expected to see at this Pro Tour (namely Splinter Twin, Abzan, and Affinity), Burn, Infect and Amulet Combo surprised by their impressive finish. Disappointing results included Storm, R/G Tron and UWR Midrange/Control.

It is mostly too late to acquire cards at this point for speculation, but it is worth holding onto all the cards that shined at this PT for a couple more weeks. Let’s break it down.

Although no Infect deck made it to the Top 8, it's performance was absolutely unexpected. It was the second most represented deck in the Top 16 (three players). Relatively cheap, fast and straightforward to play, expect to see more of these on MTGO this month. After a fleeting bump--10 Tix to 14 Tix to 10 Tix from Friday to Sunday--Inkmoth Nexus is likely to keep climbing as players will try to poison their opponents online.

Burn decks have always been a part of the metagame on MTGO, probably more so than in paper Magic. Now, they will be an even stronger reason to bring Burn to the (digital) table. The deck clearly showed this past weekend it could battle against anything. Burn decks were the second most represented decks on Day 1 and put five players in the Top 16, more than any other decks. All cards from this deck, uncommons, rares and lands, should keep rising from now until the end of the MOCS season in March.

Splinter Twin decks were expected to be a legitimate contender in this new Modern environment. With two slots in the Top 8 including the winner, Splinter Twin is here to stay. The main difference in this 2015 version of U/R Splinter Twin is that Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker seems to have been pushed out.

Abzan decks were by far the most represented decks of the tournament in D.C.—a ton in Day 1, not as much in the Top 16. The usual suspects were almost all here--Liliana of the Veil, Tarmogoyf, Scavenging Ooze, Inquisition of Kozilek and Abrupt Decay are here to stay.

Lingering Souls and Noble Hierarch also benefited from the exposure to this deck. The white sorcery is finally taking off and the mana dork will probably be back to 40 tix soon.

The big loser in Abzan is Dark Confidant. With the addition of higher casting-cost cards including Tasigur, the Golden Fang, losing too much life to Bob in this heavy Burn environment is not acceptable. With a potential reprint in MM2 it may be time to sell Dark Confidant before a bigger dip in the coming months.

Primeval Titan, Azusa, Lost but Seeking, Amulet of Vigor, Hive Mind, Summoner's Pact and Pact of Negation nicely spiked after this weekend. As the deck is not for everyone, the increases in price are probably going to be limited. Selling these cards soon is probably a good option as the hype winds down and players realize this is a difficult deck to play well.

One parameter to keep in mind is that the Modern metagame often evolves in different directions in paper and on MTGO. Tier 2 or 3 decks that were not seen at the PT, such as Living End, Bogles, Soul Sisters and blue-based Tron decks may still be played online during the MOCS season. The Modern format will adapt to the metagame defined at Pro Tour Fate Reforged. With a few exceptions discussed earlier, all cards are worth keeping for now, at least until the speculative storm triggered by the PT has passed.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Temple of Enlightenment

Both of these cards are still strong Standard contenders and should rise again after the dip generated by FRF release events.

Edit: Elspeth is set to be released in paper in the Elspeth/Kiora duel deck at the end of the month. Even though the duel deck will not be released on MTGO, this will put a damper on this spec as the lower paper price will translate to a lower price on mtgo. Previously the upside on this card was in the 5-8 tix range, with little downside. Now, I think the upside is smaller, in the 3-5 tix range, but with more downside, so I am removing it from the Targeted Buy list. - Matt

Modern

Thundermaw Hellkite

This dragon doesn’t really have a home in the new Modern yet but it is a very fine answer to Lingering Souls out of the popular Abzan decks. The Hellkite is also at its lowest price since October 2012.

Legacy

Deathrite Shaman

This card is close to it’s all time bottom. Legacy is usually penciled in for at least one MOCS event a year, and it’s a format that sees periodic interest, particularly in the late summer.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker