Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of February 17^th, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively. Note that it usually takes about a month after a set releases on MTGO for it be available for redemption, so expect FRF to be redeemable in the first week of March.

Overall, it is very evident in the Weekly Change values for MTGO that prices have stated to rebound from the lows reached during FRF release events. Prices are still depressed relative to last month though, indicating there is some potential for higher prices over the coming weeks as the MTGO economy normalizes with the conclusion of release events.

Return to Ravnica Block and M14

The outlook for both RTR and GTC is positive; with recent price increases in paper, it looks like these sets have established themselves in a steady uptrend. With prices on MTGO only starting to show a little strength, it’s only a matter of time before paper prices start dragging digital prices up through the redemption mechanism. With the end of FRF release events, it's safe to assume the outlook on these sets is for higher prices in both the short and medium term.

M14 is the one redeemable set that is still in the midst of a slide in price. This set is definitely approaching ‘good value’ territory as it gets closer to its post-rotation low from October. Paper prices might have stabilized, and so a turn higher could be imminent.

Keep an eye on Archangel of Thune, Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze for cards that are value-priced, relative to their potential in Modern. Chandra, Pyromaster has been falling in price due to a drop in utility in Standard, but a change of fortunes for that card in the Standard metagame would set the stage for a nice price bump.

Theros Block and M15

Although prices have risen in the past week on these sets, this really is a risky time to start considering taking any substantial positions in cards from these sets. As we get closer to the Spring, prices across the board will start coming under pressure with thoughts of the nicer Summer weather as well as the pending Fall rotation. Once a downtrend reasserts itself on the rotating sets, it’s best to avoid all potential specs in these sets.

That being said, choosing selective targets is okay at the moment, if the risks and rewards are well understood. A good rule to heed though is to avoid speculating on non-mythic rares from sets that are due to rotate, as these really have no backstop when prices start trending down.

With all of this in mind, consider Pharika, God of Affliction from JOU. This card found the 5 tix price level to be pretty reasonable back in November, before taking off and peaking at around 18 tix at the end of December. Now it’s back down to around 5 tix again, and with a Standard format that is cycling through various archetypes, the possibility of a graveyard themed deck shining for a few weeks is a good one.

Still considering JOU, it’s time to sell Eidolon of the Great Revel as it has hit a recent high of around 13 tix. Burn is a powerful force in Modern, but can be hated out of contention if players really don’t want to lose to it. There might be a couple of more tix of potential in this one as the Modern MOCS is just under four weeks away, but it’s also nice to get out of a spec while supply is still low and bots are eager to stock up.

Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged

KTK looks like it’s about as cheap as it’s going to get before it stops being drafted. There is only one card over 10 tix, a rare situation for a set currently in Standard. Starting to accumulate the playable mythic rares from this set is a prudent move.

Once DTK is released, there will be upward pricing pressure on all KTK cards as the supply from drafters slows down. Keep this in mind over the next six weeks, though the possibility that DTK contains the allied fetch lands is a risk to KTK's ultimate value.

Meanwhile, FRF is seeing a slight bump in price this week at the tail end of release events. This comes largely on the back of Whisperwood Elemental and Shaman of the Great Hunt, both of which were seen powering up various red-green strategies in Standard this past weekend. As drafting continues, prices in FRF will find their level, but for now the situation is still fluid, so seeing short-term swings like this is not uncommon.

Modern

The Modern metagame is stabilizing online and with it the price of many cards. Some cards are still on the rise, some have reached a stable price and others are clearly on the decline. With a little less than two weeks of play in the current Modern MOCS season, it is time to consider closing most of your Modern positions.

Losing positions at this point may never rebound and may actually keep dipping. Remember that Modern Masters 2015 is only three months away and the fear of reprints is likely to freeze prices or drop them significantly as spoilers are revealed.

Cards from sets excluded from MMA2015 reprints—M13, M14, Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks—won’t be affected the same way and are likely to keep cycling as Modern prices usually do. Keeping cards from these sets past February, even after a little dip from their current prices, doesn’t hold any particular risk of price depreciation in the long run.

Vintage and Legacy

These two formats have been at a standstill for many months now. Vintage hasn’t caught on as many expected and card prices from Vintage Masters have been flat or slightly down on average. Last week’s announcement about the changes in the Daily Events schedule is expected to revitalize these formats in an attempt to "build the Vintage community."

This might as well be a tipping point for any Vintage and Legacy specs. Staples in both formats such as Force of Will and dual lands may be good speculative targets if, hopefully, Vintage and Legacy can establish themselves and start to grow.

Pauper

In the same announcement, more Pauper Daily events are being added “Due to popular demand.” This is exciting news for players and speculators, especially if this format is already backed by player demand. Several commons sustained a high price in the past simply based on Pauper popularity.

A rule of thumb for MTGO speculating on any given card is that the older the set, the scarcer the supply, and thus the higher the price. Pauper staples have included Lotus Petal, Ancestral Mask, Quirion Ranger, Crypt Rats, Glistener Elf, Spire Golem, Delver of Secrets, Ninja of the Deep Hours, Chittering Rats and Diabolic Edict. More speculative targets can be found by checking the Pauper metagame on Mtggoldfish.com

Trends on Pauper speculations have not been easy to predict in the past but can lead to great profits during popular times of the Pauper format and when bulk commons suddenly rise to 1 or 2 tix. Considering the average prices of these types of investments can be particularly well suited for small bankrolls.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Pharika, God of Affliction

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Standard

Eidolon of the Great Revel

Modern

Goblin Guide
MMA Cryptic Command
Daybreak Coronet
Fulminator Mage
MMA Knight of the Reliquary
MMA Lightning Helix
MMA Pact of Negation
Ranger of Eos
Slippery Bogle
Steel Overseer
MMA Tooth and Nail
Flames of the Blood Hand
Smash to Smithereens