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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.
There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.
Redemption
Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of March 2nd, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each setās individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.
MTGO prices have moved in different directions this past week, with renewed price decreases on KTK and FRF, while sets not currently being drafted have shown varying price strength. Paper prices have also shown some volatility this week. With DTK previews set to begin, expect the volatility to continue as spoilers shake up the market.
Broadly speaking, it is the correct time to accumulate tix in advance of DTK release events, when the inevitable liquidity crunch drives up the value of tix relative to everything else. Accumulating tix is the best play at the moment. Once demand for tix ramps up during DTK events, prices for singles will fall and there will inevitably be some good buying opportunities.
Be prepared in advance though. Sell now when tix are still valued in a normal way. Short-term positions should be liquidated, and some trimming of longer-term positions is also warranted.
Return to Ravnica Block and M14
The outlook for both RTR and GTC remains positive. There was a slight dip in TCG Low prices, but compared to TCG Mid, this is a more volatile indicator. TCG Mid prices have been advancing about 1% a week.
Of note, one particular card from RTR made a small splash this past weekend. Jace, Architect of Thought showed up as a singleton in Gerard Fabianoās winning Modern deck at the SCG Open in Baltimore and so it has seen a price bump as a result. With RTR being the last set with the lower redemption fee of $5, it currently ranks as the redeemable set with the most value, relative to paper.
M14 has finally turned the corner, as it went from weekly price drops to a solid price increase. This set is still āgood valueā but it will need continued price increases in paper to drive further price increases in the short term.
Theros Block and M15
The start of DTK spoilers has revealed that allied colours will be a strong theme for this last set from the plane of Tarkir. This will inevitably drive some interest in the allied-colour gods from BNG and other allied-colour cards. In the short term, any price increases driven by speculative behavior should be sold into. BNG has very low long-term potential as a redeemable set, so if you are holding mythic rares from this set, itās time to start selling.
A recent buy recommendation from THS was Xenagos, the Reveler. The red-green planeswalker has seen a recent bump in price due to the resurgence of red-green strategies in Standard, but they donāt appear to be Tier 1 as of yet. Itās possible that the allied theme of DTK pushes red-green into a more dominant position in Standard. Pay attention to the DTK spoilers and consider the potential impact they might have on this card and the red-green ramp strategy. The new command cycle, if it features a competitive red-green one, could be a big boon to this spec.
A second recent recommendation was Keranos, God of Storms from JOU. This card is still in relatively short supply and has seen a price above 10 tix in recent weeks. With Twin strategies firmly in the Tier 1 of Modern decks, expect this card to appreciate in price leading up to the Modern MOCS preliminaries and championships. However, it is now less than two weeks from the MOCs events, so itās time to start unwinding this position.
Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged
KTK continues to plumb new lows as drafters keep opening the online product. On top of this, there is the threat of the allied fetch lands reappearing in DTK (perhaps with updated art). An event like that would immediately reduce the value of KTK and also reduce the long-term prospects for the set.
However, the playable mythics from this set are probably at or near their lows. Buying a basket of the most played mythics is a very defensible long-term speculative strategy. If you only have a few tix to speculate with, wait until the DTK release events which will probably herald the absolute bottom for most cards from KTK.
FRF will continue to be opened in large volume over the coming weeks, so be on the look-out for mythic rares from this set that are value priced. One in particular that demands some attention is Warden of the First Tree. This card is now below 2 tix, and if it gets closer to 1 tix, it could be a very interesting spec. There are also what appear to be a couple of staple uncommons in Wild Slash and Valorous Stance. These will both be worth buying just prior to the release of Magic Origins in the summer.
Modern
Another mixed results week for Modern. While some cards are clearly on the decline, others keep climbing. Nonetheless the selling window is slowly closing on Modern positions. Losing positions or positions on the decline for several days should probably be sold, as chances of a rebound are limited. It is also advisable to sell profitable positions, as the chance of future gains is reduced as we are approaching the end of the Modern season, and the threat of reprints looms in MM2.
Lower priced rares and uncommons may have room to recover. Thereās always the chance that a low priced card sees a day in the sun, so itās not usually worthwhile to completely liquidate bulk or low-priced cards that one has bought. However, when it comes to Modern staples (thus higher priced), whether they showed disappointing drops in price or decent price gains, the next two weeks is the time to sell.
Vintage and Legacy
Prices of staples in these three minor formats online continue their slow recovery after the changes in the Daily Events schedule. For once in a long time the top 10 winners of the week for Vintage as seen on Mtggoldfish.com include five pieces of Power and five dual lands.
Although on a slight upward trend, staples in these two formats are still fairly low and still represent buying opportunities for players and speculators. Hopefully these formats will keep gathering a bigger and more sustainable player base thanks to the new structure of the Daily Events schedule.
Longer term, keep in mind the Legacy MOCS at the end of the 2015. If there are no VMA flashback drafts in the interim, the prices of things like blue dual lands could potentially see steady gains over that time. If you are a novice speculator, itās best to stick to Standard and Modern positions, but those with deeper pockets might consider Tundra and Underground Sea as buys.
Pauper
Pauper prices have taken off and many of them are on their way to match their previous record high. Similarly to Vintage and Legacy, only time will tell if players embrace Pauper as an alternative competitive constructed format. Sustainability and steady player demand is required to maintain high prices once the initial speculative bump has passed.
Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities
None this week.
Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities
Standard
Keranos, God of Storms
Modern
Aether Vial
Arcbound Ravager
Blood Moon
Elspeth, Knight-Errant
Fulminator Mage
Engineered Explosives
Glimmervoid
Living End
Path to Exile
Magus of the Moon
Olivia Voldaren
Sword of Light and Shadow
Thundermaw Hellkite
Misty Rainforest
The reason for these cards to be here is simple; specs that have seen gains have lower upside and specs that have seen losses have a low chance to rebound in the short term. Selling out into tix, regardless of gains or losses, is what we recommend with these positions.
it is so good to have you back, Matt š
Thanks! It’s good to know I was missed, =)
I’m also glad to have you back on the front page, and grateful to Sylvain for filling the gap in coverage.
I have to disagree in part with the modern strategy presented. I am (maybe in the minortiy?) harboring the opinion that Very Very few if any cards from MM1 will be reprinted. I see maybe Tarmogoyf and no others.
I stocked up Modern in a serious way. I outted my positions that I consider as potential reprints, but I’m holding 90% of the MM1 goodies I bought into during the December and January flashbacks. If blood moon is 18 now, I predict it could be 25 shortly after MM2 is released, if not reprinted, bolstered by higher interest in modern. I don’t consider it much of a wait for this kind of potential upside.
Cards like Elspeth, Knight, bridge from below and Kiki jiki haven’t really had a chance to see any upside. They are all fringe, but I see them still coming back to pre-khans levels.
At the first announcement of MM1 and MM2 drafts together around release (this might almost be a no-brainer for wizards)… or at the first spoiler that shows a card from MM1 in MM2, I’ll certainly rethink my assumptions.
I think (and Sylvain should comment too) that there is some merit to what you are saying, but that in the near term, the combination of a Modern MOCs followed by DTK release events suggest a good time to sell, regardless of reprint risk in MM2.
With that in mind, during and after DTK release events would be a good time to think about what Modern staples that won’t be printed in MM2 that are also value priced. As you say, something like Elspeth is probably not going to be reprinted, and is probably in a low price range already. But, every speculator has to balance out the potential of a card like Elspeth with the opportunities that might come during DTK release events and PT DTK. Having tix tied up in a card might be optimal, but every speculator has to make that decision for themselves.
I totally agree each speculator should make their own decision based on their bankroll size, all information available and their own intuition. But I did certainly want to offer a differing opinion regarding “selling out into tix regardless of gains or losses”.
If you don’t absolutely need those tix… It’s one of those questions whether it is worth selling things you might rebuy a few weeks later. I’ve tried timing things like that with VMA and I always seemed just to screw myself and put a lot of time into buying and selling.
I see your reasoning and it is probably good too.
My way to speculate with Modern, and with other types of positions, is pretty conservative I guess–avoiding as much risk as possible and maximizing gains whenever possible.
Assuming than most, if not all, of MMA1 cards won’t be in MMA2 may be right. In such case, Blood Moon & other MMA1 staples haven’t much to lose in the mid term (~6 months). BM could totally be 25 tix after MMA2 release.
In my conservative way to approach this I see that Modern cards are at a high point now and are likely to decline a little bit soon and for many reasons: the end of Modern MOCS, DTK release events, MMA2 release events, summer, M16.
All of this should contribute to lower prices, even cards not reprinted in MMA2. If BM is not in MMA2, from 18-20 Tix now I predict it to drop back to 12-15 Tix between now and M16. Selling now and maybe rebuying later is good strategy (basically the strategy with cyclical positions), and thus more money is to be made than simply keeping BM.
Now, if BM is to be reprinted in MMA2 its price will drop like a rock on the announcement and should fall to, I would guess, <5 Tix during MMA2 release events.
I would say that with all the possible scenarios our approach is the safest, in average.
For Kiki-Jiki and other cards that hadn't their chance to shine, I think that's because the metagame doesn't favor them, and there's not reason to believe this will change. As any other cards they should dip during the multiple set release we are expecting this summer.
Here again, I rather cut my losses, use my Tix for MMA2 and/or M16 specs, and come back on Kiki-Jiki if Modern is ready again for him, which may take years or bans.
I have some of these positions you recommend selling, but I am in no rush to get tixs. I dont mind waiting a year for them, if that required to get some profits. I keep mostly MMA and lands, do you think this could really be reprinted in MM2 after being reprinted in MMA?
It’s hard to believe Tarmogoyf not being reprinted in MMA2. Something I/we tend to forget is that MMA2 is also here for paper mtg. In paper some Modern cards, including MMA1 cards are really really really expensive. Tarmo ~$200, Dark Conf ~$70, Clique Vend ~$70.
MMA2 will be the same in paper or online. If Tarmo and few other are a “must be printed” in MMA2 we can also imagine others, pricy cards or not. Since it hasn’t been rule out that MMA1 cards could be printed in MMA2 we tend to be safe.
On MTGO a reprint implies a tremendous price drop.
based on this statement, I sold all of my fut gofys.
Finger crossed.
I’m pretty sure (90%) we can bank on goyf being in MM2.
If so, we can also expect the same price trend as for MMA1, a drop to 40-50 Tix, before slowly recovering to ~90-100 Tix.
Good timing isn’t it?