I’ve noticed Standard and Tiny Leaders dominating my news feed these past few weeks. Financial opportunities seem to be driven by new Standard strategies, the printing of dragons, and lots of Tiny Leaders speculation.

This observation has merit and deserves further scrutiny. A couple months ago, Modern was all the rage while we got a glimpse of the new metagame during the last Pro Tour. Once the dust settled, everyone became very excited over the prospect of a new set full of dragons.

Now we have $20 Scion of the Ur-Dragon.

And, most recently, Tiny Leaders has been all the rage.

While I don’t necessarily agree with the buyout choices speculators have made (have you seen anyone play Order of Whiteclay yet?), the trend cannot be argued with. Of course, we have no idea whether or not this format will become a mainstay of Magic or if it’ll be the next flash in the pan.

What I want to focus on this week is the next 3-6 months. A lot of exciting things will happen in that time frame, and I want to make sure everyone is strategizing about the future rather than chasing bad ideas from the first quarter of 2015.

One of the greatest, most rewarding ways to make money in MTG Finance is to anticipate what’s to come and planning ahead, and this article will hopefully help you do just that.

Modern Masters 2015

By far the most exciting event on the horizon is the release of the second reprint-only Modern set, Modern Masters 2015.

Sure to delight, this release is going to drive massive shifts in the Modern market. Some cards will tank in value. Others, often the most desirable mythic rares, will increase in demand, overshadowing any possible price drop due to new supply.

That’s exactly what happened to Tarmogoyf two years ago – the increase in supply was immediately matched with an even greater increase in demand, leading to a price increase.

What’s the plan this time?

Well, I’m not going to pretend that I can predict what will be in the set and what won’t be. Nor can we anticipate how large the print run will be. Everyone has their theories, and adding my own right now wouldn’t add much value to this article.

Instead, I want to emphasize two points.

First – don’t underestimate the power that Innistrad block and later have by dodging this set. If Modern Masters 2015 achieves its desired goal, Modern should see another jump start in interest. And let’s face it – after the recent shakeup and considering the rather unimpressive metagame, the format definitely needs a kick.

A surge in interest means a surge in demand. Staples dodging reprint will surely see a jump in value. While the opportunity on Snapcaster Mage has passed, there’s a more straightforward option worth considering: Shock Lands!

If these aren’t reprinted again, they may finally have a chance to trend upward. Real Estate is always a good place to be, after all.

Steam Vents may already be a bit more expensive, but the other Shocks still have some rebound left in them. It’s a matter of when, not if. And I think it’s safe to say most of these have surely hit their bottom.

Abrupt Decay is another mainstay worth grabbing now. Other great pickups will be Modern staples not reprinted, but it’s still a bit too early.

The second point I want to make is more theoretical and relates to the real world.

A few years back, when the US economy was stagnating and needed a jumpstart, the Federal Reserve began printing more money to buy Bonds. This Quantitative Easing continued to inject cash into the US economy for years (yes, I’m oversimplifying a bit).

This, combined with a near-zero interest rate, has had the desired effect: the S&P 500 is near its all-time high!

I view the printing of Modern Masters 2015 as comparable action by Wizards of the Coast.

Think about it: they are essentially printing a ton of money in the form of highly desirable reprints and injecting them into the market.

Grand Prix Las Vegas, which will almost definitely break attendance records, will add tons of money into people’s trade binders as they crack open fresh, NM copies of Tarmogoyf, Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, and more. This means many players will suddenly have more value in their trade binder than they do currently.

You don’t have to be a Peter Lynch to know what this means. More cash in players’ binders means the cards they desire most will become within their reach. Thus, demand increases and price increases. And it’s not like having an extra Tarmogoyf makes people want a given Legacy staple less.

The trick, of course, is predicting what cards these players will demand.

I’ve placed my bet on Legacy – namely, Dual Lands. My hope is that players use their opened Tarmogoyfs to trade into Underground Seas and other Legacy staples. The older format is, after all, far superior, in the opinion of many. I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.

Therefore, I’ve concentrated around 25% of my MTG holdings into Duals for the time being. This was the safest bet I could make, and you know how I tend to be risk-averse!

There are likely other options which will yield better returns. Wasteland has pulled back far from its high these past few months. Stoneforge Mystic continues to be a dominant card in Legacy. And as long as it dodges reprint, Sensei's Divining Top will likely continue its inevitable and unwavering rise in price. $30?! Are you kidding me?!

I’ll probably watch trends closely and try to strategically jump in front of some budding price movement as soon as I notice it.

Standard Rotation

In the fall, we’ll face yet anther Standard rotation. This means we say farewell to Theros block from Standard while welcoming in the newest block, Battle for Zendikar. To me, this means two things.

Naturally, players will be looking to unload their Theros block staples into cards not rotating in order to maintain their collection’s value. In many cases, this simply means trading into newer Standard cards.

But trading out of Standard and into cards which will hold their value for a longer time period is also possible. In other words, players could use that opportunity to grab a few pieces for their Modern deck or perhaps their new Tiny Leaders deck.

The other implication of Battle for Zendikar? Fetch lands!!!!!

Dollar signs are appearing in my eyeballs as I type this. I love sets with fetches because it adds to the excitement of opening packs, knowing there are at least five rares worth cracking in addition to all the other value in the set. And who wouldn’t want to crack open a Scalding Tarn?

Of course, there’s no guarantee of a fetch land reprint.

But my money is on a reprint… literally, I own zero Zendikar fetches right now. Holding them for much longer just seems reckless. Scalding Tarn is a $57 card now, but a reprinted copy would likely cost around $15. After seeing what the reprint did to Onslaught fetches, it’s fairly obvious that bailing on Zendikar fetches is the right play heading into a potential reprint.

Cheaper fetches means cheaper entry into Modern! Manabases will go from being $400 to $200. Therefore, money will be freed up for other pickups, buoying other prices higher. This is yet another tailwind for Modern and Legacy staples.

Wrapping It Up

The first quarter of 2015 has been all about Standard, Tiny Leaders, and casual formats. Dragons have surged in value thanks to the release of Dragons of Tarkir. New Standard sets have also kept the format fresh, creating new opportunities to profit on cards like Mastery of the Unseen. And the steady increase in demand for casual cards like Command Tower, Necrogen Mists, and Regal Force has never been stronger.

But if history is any indicator, I think the change of season will also mean a shift in financial opportunity. Casual staples will also be solid pick-ups, but I anticipate greater profits will be had in Modern and Legacy soon enough. Players are about to have a cash infusion into their trade binders – a stimulus of sorts, driven by Modern Masters 2015. And more fetch lands in Battle for Zendikar could mean a lower barrier to enter Modern and further increase in player base. Both would mean price increases for Eternal staples.

Based on all these upcoming events, my money continues to be on Legacy. Around this time last year we saw a sudden surge in the value of dual lands. Since then, much of that value has been given back. My hope is that we see yet another jump, this time catalyzed by the factors mentioned above.

What if I’m wrong? Well, it’s not like dual lands are going to drop in price any time soon. And judging by the games of Tiny Leaders that I’ve played, a new competitive format will just motivate players to pick up duals even more than before. After all, I call Commander and Tiny Leaders “casual” simply because there are no Grand Prix or SCG Opens showcasing these formats. But many players treat these formats as highly competitive – these players need their duals to optimize their decks.

And, of course, there’s that Reserved List in the background protecting this investment.

So, as we head into the Spring months and the weather heats up, keep an eye on MTG trends. We should see Modern and Legacy cards heating up as well, driven by a number of factors. The result will be another exciting opportunity to make some profits – stay tuned!

…

Sigbits

• Star City Games currently has only one English nonfoil copy of Stoneforge Mystic in stock. Near Mint price is up to $34.75 now, but that’s not the ceiling. I expect this to trend higher as we head toward the summer.
• Do you want to play Dimir in Tiny Leaders? Well, you’d better skip over SCG’s website then because you’ll need a copy of Sygg, River Cutthroat and they are fresh out. Their current price: $6.09, but I can see that going higher if the format continues to gain traction and grow.
• Want to know my favorite target for Tiny Leaders speculation? Engineered Explosives. The card is amazing in a format with only 4 optional casting costs (0, 1, 2, 3) and recurring it with Academy Ruins is a sweet bonus. The card was just reprinted in the first Modern Masters, so a second reprint seems unlikely. And the card is also worthwhile in other formats, where it sees occasional play. Perhaps this is why the artifact is sold out at SCG for $8.95 (Fifth Dawn) and $9.39 (Modern Masters).