Greetings, Matriculators!

I wanted to talk about something that I think everyone is aware of but the consequences of which are nonetheless worth discussing.

Core Sets Are Going Away

While that is going to have all sorts of implications, we don't have to get into that here. I won't say I don't care because that is kind of a flippant and irresponsible attitude for someone who should be guiding his readers through the financial implications of a future without core sets...

Screw it. I don't care. I won't preclude getting into that some day soon, but I have a very specific thing I want to discuss and I won't be sidetracked. The block structure is changing, old mechanics will be harder to bring back, new players lost an easy-to-follow entree into Limited and Constructed and we don't need to discuss that today. No, today I want to discuss something everyone has always known but maybe not thought about consciously.

It's Going to be Hard to Reprint Certain Cards

Like, really hard. So far Wizards has done a very good job of coming up with unobtrusive ways to get more copies of cards into the hands of players without entirely wrecking the value of said cards. That's great. I hope they keep it up. Still, as good as they are, there are a few cards that are going to be very tricky to reprint without doing something blatant like "FTV: Sorry these cards were pricey" and I don't see that being all that likely.

I want to discuss several cards that are going to be tough to reprint unobtrusively and discuss how that fact adds upside to their already substantial value. I introduced this concept a bit in a previous article so you can probably already guess what my first card is going to be.

Leyline of Sanctity

Seriously, how do you reprint this card? Its strongest implications are in Modern where this stuffs everything from Inquisition of Kozilek to Lightning Bolt and lots of goofy stuff like Glimpse the Unthinkable. This card does work. The work it does demands fair compensation and in the current market, that compensation appears to be $30 a copy with no signs of going down.

Can this be in Modern Masters 2015? Eeehhhhhh. Yes? Could it? Surely. It is eligible to be in the set after all. However, Modern Masters isn't an FTV. Cards in the set have to work in the context of a limited environment and it's likely that Leyline would be a dead rare in limited, something they will want to avoid.

This is a real problem that severely limits where it could be reprinted. It was fine in M11 because you could just pass it and core sets have to have a few "bad" rares (a bad rare is a rare card that is bad whereas a "bad" rare is a card that is worthless in limited and then becomes worth $30 someday) to make the set spicy or whatever their rationale for printing Vizzerdrix was.

With no future core set for Leyline to slot into, we're looking at an awkward reprint in some sort of supplementary product some day, if we see any reprint at all. What's the future of core set rares like this? I can't say, but I do know that when we get a full spoiler of Modern Masters 2015 and this card isn't in the set, we may find ourselves wishing we'd bought in when they were "cheap" at $30. I think there is short-term flip money to be made buying these with trade-in credit and selling them when they get a bump from MM15 exclusion the way I think they will.

Leyline is far from the only core set card that will be tough to reprint and which has upside.

Hive Mind

In general, if the name of the card is the same as the name of the deck it's in, it's important. Hive Mind isn't always the marquee card in the deck that uses it, but it frequently is and saw another bump recently with its inclusion in the Amulet Bloom deck that has made every card in it spike for like the fourth time. Hive Mind is a card that forces opponents to play spells they may not want to play. Sometimes they are forced to play pacts that they can't afford to pay for and they lose. This is funny to me.

Hive Mind isn't quite as difficult to print in some random set, but this doesn't really play well with a set's unique mechanics, it is sort of offbeat and weird and would look awkward in any set it's in. This seems also destined for supplementary product if it's reprinted at all.

The great thing here is that it's not expensive enough for there to be much pressure on Wizards to reprint it so it seems likely to just sort of hang out around $4 and maybe go back down a bit. Still, this card will be used in a deck that gets played on camera again. People won't look at its historic ceiling and buy accordingly. They'll whip their wallets out and buy out TCG Player because that is how MTG Finance works now.

Every time this goes back down, a few more copies end up not going back into the market. There are fewer and fewer copies listed for sale on sites. This card will dry up and with the likelihood that it gets reprinted pretty low since it's such a goofy card, you can just start trading for these and putting them in a box. Fewer copies being listed is going to put upward pressure on the price. I think as this goes down, get more and more aggressive about targeting these. I used to get shipped these as bulk rares and I bet every rando who played back then has a copy in their binder.

If this ever hits $2.50 again, you know it won't stop at $4.50 the next time it goes up. They aren't making more of these and more and more people think they're going to be the next LSV and win win a Hive Mind deck. Look at that price graph. This is a solid investment with proven upside potential. Expect it to shoot past its historical ceiling next time people take notice. I like this card as a trade target a lot.

Baneslayer Angel*

Yes, asterisk.

This card could easily be printed in FTV: Angels coming up and if it is, all bets are off. I don't know the likelihood of it, but I would say it is higher than the likelihood of Leyline of Sanctity in MM15. Accordingly, I am not going to advise that you bet your money.

However, outside of supplementary product, it seems unlikely that they want to usher in another year plus of dominance by this plucky angel. The price is coming down a bit over time and that is a trend that seems likely to reverse itself long-term because this will be hard to reprint unobtrusively and there is no real reason to do so. It's underwhelming in EDH so it's unlikely to see a reprint there. It's expensive and unlikely to be in a duel deck. If it's not in FTV: Angels, the chances to reprint it sink a lot.

I don't think the price will tick up immediately if it's excluded from FTV: Angels, but I think there is real upside even buying in at $12ish on something with a lot of printings. Look how much it went up in a year just because. This card isn't done growing. I'm going to let it fall a bit and rebound or get blown out by an FTV printing (or not) before I make any moves, but I have my eye on this card. Angels, Demons and Dargons are good.

Rune-Scarred Demon

In nearly every way possible, this is the opposite of Baneslayer and I have the opposite instincts with respect to him.

First of all, he's insane in EDH and his foil price is baffling. Will the new Sidisi make him obsolete? I really doubt it for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is demons' appeal in Kaalia decks. This is a very, very good EDH card and its foil multiplier does not accurately reflect reality. If this card is doomed to only be reprinted in supplementary products, so much the better.

I'm unconcerned with his $5 pricetag when the foil is much, much, much, much harder to reprint in supplementary products. The foil price here is super wrong and any nudge is going to correct it. As soon as people take notice, this is likely to correct to a 2x multiplier, minimum.

Don't all go out and buy out TCG Player and ruin it for everyone. Buy a few scattered copies on smaller sites and don't attract attention. We're not trying to wreck this price overnight, we're trying to accumulate copies for an inevitable price increase. I think the non-foils have upside, too, but the foils are the play I like. If we don't screw this up, there is real upside here.

Adaptive Automaton

"Finally, a lord for my Dwarf tribal deck" - nerds

This is a no-brainer. Solid gainer, slightly tough to reprint. People undervalue this. This could see a reprint in some supplementary product but that fear hasn't stopped this from climbing steadily.

This is the riskiest card I have identified, but the casual appeal is absolutely off the charts. I had a casual player propose a Verdant Catacombs for one of these when Catacombs was $15. I gave him a playset and still felt bad. He acted like I pulled his mother out of a burning bus. This is casual gold, and a reprinting might not even do much to slow its ascent.

There you have it. I think there are likely a lot more cards and I may do five more next week. These are all cards that will be tough to reprint in the exact same manner as their initial printing and I think they all have real upside. Don't agree? Don't see your pet card? Leave it below.

Until next week!