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The Five Lands
Today I want to talk about poverty in the lands of Innistrad. In the Isolated Chapels and the Hinterland Harbors, land values have hit rock bottom. Rooms at the Clifftop Retreat are empty. And as a prospector eager to develop, I am wondering if right now is a good time to buy in.
The best clue I found for considering whether or not Innistrad land values will rise was Sulfur Falls.
- Stock Chart - Sulfur Falls 4/19/15
The stock chart reveals that Sulfur Falls steadily climbed this time last year and yet again last quarter. Each of these climbs correspond to the opening of Modern season. The card is readily seen in several Top 8 decks at the state level including Splinter Twin. Unlike scry lands, (Temple of Malady, Temple of Enlightenment, etc.) these lands actually see Modern play, which will be a huge factor in predicting their upward value.
But not all of them will be worth buying into. Sulfur Falls for instance has probably hit its ceiling. If last year can be a predecessor of this year, it will quit climbing and level off this summer.
Instead, let's turn our attention to the lands below poverty. Turns out the poverty line in the United States for a single individual is an income of less then $11,945 a year. In Innistrad, I'd fix the poverty line at about 4 dollars/per land (you could extend this metaphor to other dual lands; the target price for shocklands is $10).
All of these lands have the privilege of having seen one print run. But a reprint of these lands would act like social welfare.
Just at the poverty threshold, Hinterland Harbor, Clifftop Retreat, and Woodland Cemetery make for riskier--but fair--investments. Like Sulfur Falls, Hinterland fixes the land base of several Top 8 Modern decks. Woodland Cemetery too, although at a lesser degree. In terms of their stock chart, they have all leveled off and show little movement. But they're not losing value either.
If you can snag these up for less then $4, I'd do so. Just by considering their stock in context, I figure by this time next year they have a chance of gaining some moderate value. The only 'risk' being that any value they would have gained could be lost by a reprint.
As a final thought, the time is coming very near to cash in on scry lands. There's going to be a vacancy for dual lands in the rotation. Obviously everyone hopes for off-color fetch lands. But it could very well be a reprint of off-color Innistrad lands instead.
At their height, these lands saw values upwards of $13. And although I have been rather conservative in my estimates (I could have set the poverty line at $5 or even $6), I predict if there is a reprint, good money can be made off these lands. Some thoughts to consider, my friends, while deciding whether or not its worth it to take the chance/risk to invest in Innistrad lands.
- Casper David Friedrich painted his own Isolated Chapel, "Abby in the Oakwood," in 1810.
I actually think many of the “buddy lands” should see more play in modern as they are the ideal turn 2+ “dual land”, that being said, the color combination plays a HUGE role in if they’ll ever really become valuable. The worst offender is Clifftop Retreat. The only real homes I can see for it (currently) are U/W/r Control and R/w Burn (for boros charm). Your best bet for real gains is likely Woodland Cemetery as G/B is one of the stronger color combinations in modern (thanks largely to Abrupt Decay/Thoughtseize/Tarmogoyf), though it did come in the RTR:Golgari event deck as a 1 of. Now G/B is often paired with white so you might think that Isolated Chapel would also be a good bet, but it showed up as a 4 of in the Modern Event Deck which flooded the market with additional (un-wanted at the time) copies…the only saving grace on that reprinting, was that the modern event deck was such bad value that not nearly as many were opened as there could have been.
Great evaluation David.
I think with these buddy lands, one has to match them in order to those of shocklands. In that sense, just like almost every other land in Magic history, I’d be looking at Blue “buddy lands” first and then the most popular in other colors. David is right on Cemetary, so that would be first right after the U “duals”.
At the same time, These are always primed for reprint in almost any sealed product or upcoming sets. So I’d temper expectations. Unless Wizards doesn’t want easy color fixing, and doesn’t put these back through Standard and does something like the Scry lands again.