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Welcome back, readers! The inspiration for this article was from the debate on what MM2015 is expected to do to prices. We still don't know a whole lot about MM2015 (except for a few of the cards that have been spoiled thus far and hearing from shop owners who are getting considerably more product this go around), but we can see how the original Modern Masters (MMA) affected overall card prices and make inferences from that data.
It's important to keep in mind that the modern playerbase has grown considerably since the original release of MMA. The original MMA set was released June 7, 2013. In order to try and isolate the price changes caused by the playerbase growth we'll actually look back in time at the price changes of the individual cards one month after the set's release (in theory when most of the new supply was already opened and near its maximum).
Another reason for picking a date close to the MMA release is that the Modern metagame is unlikely to have changed much in that time frame (and we all know that the a sudden shift in the metagame can cause a major spike in a card's value).
So here's the list of MMA mythics:
| Mythics | Price June 6th, 2013 | Price July 7th, 2013 | Price Change |
| Dark Confidant | 59.97 | 71.99 | 20.04% |
| Elspeth, Knight Errant | 24.97 | 22.99 | -7.93% |
| Jugan, the Rising Star | 2.97 | 2.49 | -16.16% |
| Keiga, the Tide Star | 5.97 | 4.98 | -16.58% |
| Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker | 24.97 | 20.99 | -15.94% |
| Kokusho, the Evening Star | 17.97 | 12.02 | -33.11% |
| Progenitus | 15.97 | 12.71 | -20.41% |
| Ryusei, the Falling Star | 1.97 | 1.9 | -3.55% |
| Sarkhan Vol | 19.97 | 13.24 | -33.70% |
| Sword of Fire and Ice | 29.97 | 29.69 | -0.93% |
| Sword of Light and Shadow | 24.97 | 24.9 | -0.28% |
| Tarmogoyf | 109.97 | 144.19 | 31.12% |
| Vedalkan Shackles | 14.97 | 12 | -19.84% |
| Vendilion Clique | 49.97 | 44.98 | -9.99% |
| Yosei, the Morning Star | 9.97 | 7.25 | -27.28% |
The average percentage price drop for the mythics of MM2013 was -10.3%.
Here's the list of MM Rares:
| Rares | Price June 6th, 2013 | Price July 7th, 2013 | Price Change |
| Academy Ruins | 11.97 | 7.99 | -33.25% |
| Adarkar Valkyrie | 9.97 | 4.16 | -58.27% |
| Aether Vial | 14.97 | 10.98 | -26.65% |
| Angels' Grace | 2.47 | 1.49 | -39.68% |
| Arcbound Ravager | 19.97 | 16.6 | -16.88% |
| Auriok Salvagers | 0.97 | 0.59 | -39.18% |
| Blinkmoth Nexus | 14.97 | 9.69 | -35.27% |
| Blood Moon | 9.97 | 7.21 | -27.68% |
| Bridge from Below | 11.97 | 7 | -41.52% |
| Chalice of the Void | 7.97 | 6.6 | -17.19% |
| City of Brass | 7.97 | 4.98 | -37.52% |
| Cold-Eyed Selkie | 3.97 | 1.99 | -49.87% |
| Countryside Crusher | 1.47 | 1.38 | -6.12% |
| Cryptic Command | 29.97 | 24.65 | -17.75% |
| Death Cloud | 1.97 | 1.16 | -41.12% |
| Demigod of Revenge | 5.97 | 3.49 | -41.54% |
| Divinity of Pride | 7.97 | 4.46 | -44.04% |
| Doubling Season | 29.97 | 18.99 | -36.64% |
| Dragonstorm | 2.97 | 1.45 | -51.18% |
| Earwig Squad | 0.97 | 0.65 | -32.99% |
| Engineered Explosives | 14.97 | 9.2 | -38.54% |
| Ethersworn Canonist | 7.97 | 4.33 | -45.67% |
| Extirpate | 4.97 | 3.99 | -19.72% |
| Figure of Destiny | 5.97 | 3.53 | -40.87% |
| Gifts Ungiven | 9.97 | 6.45 | -35.31% |
| Glen Elendra Archmage | 14.97 | 7.49 | -49.97% |
| Glimmervoid | 14.97 | 9.69 | -35.27% |
| Grand Arbiter Augustin IV | 9.97 | 4.82 | -51.65% |
| Greater Gargadon | 1.97 | 1.07 | -45.69% |
| Jhoira of the Ghitu | 5.97 | 2.69 | -54.94% |
| Kataki, War's Wage | 7.97 | 4 | -49.81% |
| Kira, Great Glass-Spinner | 14.97 | 7.29 | -51.30% |
| Knight of the Reliquary | 7.96 | 5.99 | -24.75% |
| Life from the Loam | 4.97 | 3.73 | -24.95% |
| Lotus Bloom | 7.97 | 5.44 | -31.74% |
| Maelstrom Pulse | 11.97 | 8.79 | -26.57% |
| Meloku, the Clouded Mirror | 1.47 | 1.27 | -13.61% |
| Molten Disaster | 0.97 | 0.53 | -45.36% |
| Oona, Queen of the Fae | 4.97 | 2.51 | -49.50% |
| Pact of Negation | 14.97 | 9.99 | -33.27% |
| Pyromancer's Swath | 1.47 | 0.92 | -37.41% |
| Reveillark | 4.97 | 3.75 | -24.55% |
| Rude Awakening | 0.97 | 0.53 | -45.36% |
| Scion of Oona | 4.97 | 2.42 | -51.31% |
| Skeletal Vampire | 0.97 | 0.62 | -36.08% |
| Slaughter Pact | 2.95 | 1.99 | -32.54% |
| Squee, Goblin Nabob | 3.97 | 1.99 | -49.87% |
| Stonehewer Giant | 4.97 | 2.88 | -42.05% |
| Summoner's Pact | 14.97 | 8.08 | -46.03% |
| Tombstalker | 5.97 | 3.01 | -49.58% |
| Tooth and Nail | 11.97 | 7.97 | -33.42% |
| Verdeloth, the Ancient | 0.97 | 0.66 | -31.96% |
The average percentage drop for the rares in MM2013 was -37.37%. That's a pretty massive drop in average value. In fact with the exception of two cards (the most expensive mythics in the set at its release) all the cards dropped in value within the first month of the set's release.
GP Vegas occurred on June 23rd (in between our dates), during which the major retailers were buying both Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant at retail prices (and building up a major stockpile of those two staples). This likely played a major role in their price jump after release.
One could argue that dropping the low-dollar cards skews the data (after all when a $1 card drops to $0.5, nobody really cares or notices but that accounts for a 50% drop). So if we filter out every card that was under $5, we get something that looks like this.
| Tarmogoyf | 109.97 | 144.19 | 31.12% |
| Dark Confidant | 59.97 | 71.99 | 20.04% |
| Vendilion Clique | 49.97 | 44.98 | -9.99% |
| Sword of Fire and Ice | 29.97 | 29.69 | -0.93% |
| Cryptic Command | 29.97 | 24.65 | -17.75% |
| Doubling Season | 29.97 | 18.99 | -36.64% |
| Elspeth, Knight Errant | 24.97 | 22.99 | -7.93% |
| Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker | 24.97 | 20.99 | -15.94% |
| Sword of Light and Shadow | 24.97 | 24.9 | -0.28% |
| Sarkhan Vol | 19.97 | 13.24 | -33.70% |
| Arcbound Ravager | 19.97 | 16.6 | -16.88% |
| Kokusho, the Evening Star | 17.97 | 12.02 | -33.11% |
| Progenitus | 15.97 | 12.71 | -20.41% |
| Vedalkan Shackles | 14.97 | 12 | -19.84% |
| Aether Vial | 14.97 | 10.98 | -26.65% |
| Blinkmoth Nexus | 14.97 | 9.69 | -35.27% |
| Engineered Explosives | 14.97 | 9.2 | -38.54% |
| Glen Elendra Archmage | 14.97 | 7.49 | -49.97% |
| Glimmervoid | 14.97 | 9.69 | -35.27% |
| Kira, Great Glass-Spinner | 14.97 | 7.29 | -51.30% |
| Pact of Negation | 14.97 | 9.99 | -33.27% |
| Summoner's Pact | 14.97 | 8.08 | -46.03% |
| Academy Ruins | 11.97 | 7.99 | -33.25% |
| Bridge from Below | 11.97 | 7 | -41.52% |
| Maelstrom Pulse | 11.97 | 8.79 | -26.57% |
| Tooth and Nail | 11.97 | 7.97 | -33.42% |
| Yosei, the Morning Star | 9.97 | 7.25 | -27.28% |
| Adarkar Valkyrie | 9.97 | 4.16 | -58.27% |
| Blood Moon | 9.97 | 7.21 | -27.68% |
| Gifts Ungiven | 9.97 | 6.45 | -35.31% |
| Grand Arbiter Augustin IV | 9.97 | 4.82 | -51.65% |
| Chalice of the Void | 7.97 | 6.6 | -17.19% |
| City of Brass | 7.97 | 4.98 | -37.52% |
| Divinity of Pride | 7.97 | 4.46 | -44.04% |
| Ethersworn Canonist | 7.97 | 4.33 | -45.67% |
| Kataki, War's Wage | 7.97 | 4 | -49.81% |
| Lotus Bloom | 7.97 | 5.44 | -31.74% |
| Knight of the Reliquary | 7.96 | 5.99 | -24.75% |
| Keiga, the Tide Star | 5.97 | 4.98 | -16.58% |
| Demigod of Revenge | 5.97 | 3.49 | -41.54% |
| Figure of Destiny | 5.97 | 3.53 | -40.87% |
| Jhoira of the Ghitu | 5.97 | 2.69 | -54.94% |
| Tombstalker | 5.97 | 3.01 | -49.58% |
We still see an average of -29.48% drop in average price. So this means that while the more expensive cards (as a whole) tended to drop less than the average, they still dropped considerably.
Interpreting the Data
What can we glean from this information? First of all, it seems really dumb to pre-order any MM2015 cards, since the probability that they drop in value after the first month is likely 97% (or higher), assuming similar trends with MM2015.
Wouldn't it be awesome if we could figure out what price to expect MM2015 cards to hit?
We can create a weighted function to apply to existing card prices (once they are spoiled), though this function will rely on some assumptions (which I can't 100% verify) and it neglects shifts in the metagame since MM2013 (so use it at your own risk). Instead use this when considering what prices to expect from the reprinted cards in more general terms.
Assumptions
- G = Player growth since 2013 (29% [2013 year playerbase growth] + 6% [2014 active player growth] + 2% [2015 growth unknown, but likely similar to 2015 pace]) = 37% total player growth. This helps account for the fact that there are in fact more MTG players now than in 2013. (Data taken from this thread created by QS's own Shor which pulls numbers directly from WoTC's earnings calls.)
- To be as conservative as possible we'll assume Modern playerbase growth mirrors that of total playerbase growth (it is likely not, but because we don't know how many existing players jumped onto the Modern bandwagon vs. how many new players only play Standard it's what we'll work with).
- P = Modern Masters 2015 print run is 2.66x larger than MM2013 (QS's own Brett Schmuckler is a store owner and was kind enough to share his allotment comparison (27 boxes of MM2013 compared to 72 boxes of MM2015). This helps account for the fact that this MMA print run is considerably larger so each rare/mythic will be printed almost 3x more than those in MM2013.
So, the function is:
Weighted Card Price = Card Price * (1 + G) * (1 / P), which equates to about a 49% drop in price (which is noticeably higher than the MM2013 price drop one month in.)
However, one month in the cards were not at their lowest. The low point seemed to occur Dec. 2013/Jan. 2014. Taking a decent sample of the MM2013 (shown below) we see the average rare price drop was -49.03%.
| Rares | Price June 6th, 2013 | Price Jan 1 2014 | Average Price |
| Academy Ruins | 11.97 | 5.44 | -54.55% |
| Adarkar Valkyrie | 9.97 | 2.13 | -78.64% |
| Aether Vial | 14.97 | 13.75 | -8.15% |
| Arcbound Ravager | 19.97 | 13.49 | -32.45% |
| Blinkmoth Nexus | 14.97 | 7.01 | -53.17% |
| Chalice of the Void | 7.97 | 4.54 | -43.04% |
| Countryside Crusher | 1.47 | 0.98 | -33.33% |
| Cryptic Command | 29.97 | 24.45 | -18.42% |
| Doubling Season | 29.97 | 14 | -53.29% |
| Engineered Explosives | 14.97 | 5.65 | -62.26% |
| Figure of Destiny | 5.97 | 2.48 | -58.46% |
| Gifts Ungiven | 9.97 | 3.88 | -61.08% |
| Glimmervoid | 14.97 | 7.29 | -51.30% |
| Knight of the Reliquary | 7.96 | 4.39 | -44.85% |
| Lotus Bloom | 7.97 | 3.72 | -53.32% |
| Pact of Negation | 14.97 | 7.39 | -50.63% |
| Scion of Oona | 4.97 | 2.24 | -54.93% |
| Slaughter Pact | 2.95 | 1.65 | -44.07% |
| Stonehewer Giant | 4.97 | 1.94 | -60.97% |
| Summoner's Pact | 14.97 | 4.74 | -68.34% |
| Verdeloth, the Ancient | 0.97 | 0.54 | -44.33% |
Let's see how this compares to the mythic price difference January 1st 2014.
| Mythics | Price June 6th, 2013 | Price Jan 1st 2014 | Price Change % |
| Dark Confidant | 59.97 | 70 | 16.73% |
| Elspeth, Knight Errant | 24.97 | 19.98 | -19.98% |
| Jugan, the Rising Star | 2.97 | 2.02 | -31.99% |
| Keiga, the Tide Star | 5.97 | 3.74 | -37.35% |
| Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker | 24.97 | 17.25 | -30.92% |
| Kokusho, the Evening Star | 17.97 | 9.65 | -46.30% |
| Progenitus | 15.97 | 10.04 | -37.13% |
| Ryusei, the Falling Star | 1.97 | 1.56 | -20.81% |
| Sarkhan Vol | 19.97 | 10.98 | -45.02% |
| Sword of Fire and Ice | 29.97 | 29.49 | -1.60% |
| Sword of Light and Shadow | 24.97 | 22.94 | -8.13% |
| Tarmogoyf | 109.97 | 133.09 | 21.02% |
| Vedalkan Shackles | 14.97 | 10.49 | -29.93% |
| Vendilion Clique | 49.97 | 44.97 | -10.01% |
| Yosei, the Morning Star | 9.97 | 5.25 | -47.34% |
The average price change for the mythics between their release date and their lowest point was -21.92%. This implies that we likely don't want to apply our weighted function to the mythics as it would give us a much lower expected value based on original price than will likely occur. (For those interested, if we remove Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf from the data set we have a drop of 28.19%, which is closer to our weighted function but still far enough away that I wouldn't confidently use it.)
That was a lot of extremely interesting data. Would love to see a followup article if the spoiled list of mythics does indeed prove true. Great job.
Thanks Mike. I really enjoyed writing this one, though it took a good amount of time gathering data, I think the information we can gather from the data itself is very useful and I know I personally plan on utilizing the trends noticed with regards to my acquisition of MM2015 cards.
I like math a lot. And I like magic cards a lot. Really enjoyed this article. Formula for rares is nice and well justified but I’m curious to figure out a weighting factor for the mythics. The mythic price change compared with the rare price change (0.72 / 0.51) indicates the mythics are 1.4x more resilient so you could use that as a coefficient that works for this data set. Whether or not there is a justification for that 1.4x and whether it can be used for MM2015 is a different matter… Keep up the good math!
interesting article if you promote is as a review on MMA13 prices. That’s interesting data.
But formula’s are probably worthless for MMA15.
Best thing is that this gives me the data to shut up people who thinks mythics will go up in price again, just because 2 of all mythics got a price bump.
MMA13 was before a growth in popularity in modern. MMA15 will launch after (or during) a popularity growth in modern.
Goyf and dark confidant were the cards for jund, the one and only champion in modern decks in 2013.
That’s why I mentioned to use it at your own risk….Engineering 101 we learn we aren’t supposed to Extrapolate from data, however, the problem is if you only want to look at MM2013 prices in hindsight, there’s no real financial gain looking at the past (save if you want to just consider the price changes as an overall trend). While I definitely agree that the weighted equation should be taken with a grain of salt, I list my assumptions because there are a lot of unknowns. I agree that it wouldn’t be wise to take a card (once spoiled) current price…multiply by 0.49 and ONLY buy it when it hits that point…but I do feel like you might want to pick them up when they get within 10-15% of said price point.
Exactly what you just said. It’s an excellent guideline to make an educational guess as to where prices might fall/bottom out using relevant available data.
Thanks for this write up!!
Actually, in hindsight and upon second read through, how can you use P=2.66 which is the print multiplier for MM2015 in a formula for the original MM. The 49% decrease in MM13 rares wouldn’t be influenced by that. Unless you can somehow justify for individual cards (pact of negation for example at -50%) had about 2.66x more copies enter the market. Thoughts?
I don’t…the 2.66 is only used as a factor to consider MM2015…I compared it the drop rate to MM2013 ONLY to show that the # has statistical relevance as a historical precedent shows a very similar overall drop rate. I apologize if this wasn’t clear enough.
A small nuance, but I believe the statement “The average percentage price drop for the mythics of MM2013 was -10.3%.” is a bit misleading.
The total value of MM2013 mythics actually increased from $414.55 to $426.32, so actually +2.8% increase. In other words, the EV (for mythics) went up!
You are taking averages of averages, which is not what you should be doing in this case 😉
Sven, the aim was to look at the mythics as individuals in the group, if you’re sitting on 10 copies of all the mythics in M2015 (when spoiled) it would be foolish to hold them all because 2 of the 15 last time went up…when the other 13 went down..as a whole the typical mythic in the set decreased, which is what I was going for. I do appreciate the challenge to my reasoning though
I was more thinking about it from a “hold/sell all” scenario of course.
I don’t see why it would have been foolish to hold them all in such a case? If you had 10 copies of each, selling them all around release would result in $4,145.50, while selling them later would result in $4,263.20 according.
What I am trying to say, if this set has again Tarmogoyf/Dark Confidant kind of mythics (price starts increasing iso declining) and we can’t identify upfront which ones that are, it might not be so foolish to keep them all and wait a bit to see which ones to sell.
The money you lose by selling the declining mythics later, might be more than compensated by holding on to the ones that actually will increase*.
* if we have Tarmogoyf/Dark Confidant kind of mythics of course! -> Can these cards do that again? Will MM2015 increase popularity in modern once again?
But again my point is that from a % of the population of mythics (i.e. 2/15) that went up compared to the % of the population of mythics (13/15) that went down, it seems foolish to bet that a small % of mythics going up will offset the losses from the much larger % going down. Your math is correct in that if you had 10 of each it would have been more profitable to hold all 10 then sell all 10 and rebuy, however, if you have more copies of NOT tarmogoyf/bob…then that might not be the case.
And saying “Player growth since 2013 (29% [2013 year playerbase growth] + 6% [2014 active player growth] + 2% [2015 growth unknown, but likely similar to 2015 pace]) = 37% total player growth.” is even plain wrong.
29%, 6% and another 2% would lead to only a 31.35% increase over three years!
You are correct in that it’s not technically correct…however, you’re also wrong.
If I have a number (say 12,000,000 which is one of the last “playerbase sizes” I recall WoTC having published). If I grow 29% from that I now have 15,480,000 players…if I now grow another 6% on top of that, I have 16,408,800 players and if I grow another 2% on top of that; I have 16,736,976. This new number is a total growth (compared to the 12,000,000 original number) of 39.47%, so for that I apologize.
Yes, correct. I was on the phone this morning while reading and did a quick (wrong) calculation “29×1.06×1.02” iso “1.29×1.06×1.02” which indeed leads 39.47% increase!
I didn’t mean for that to come off as brash or aggressive by the way. I did the original calculations too quickly (it took me about 2-3 hours to gather all my data points..and I was a bit out of it by the time I’d completed that part).